Did Air Conditioning Kill The Convertible?

Front 3q view of a white 1964 Pontiac Bonneville with the top up, with whitewall tires and 8-lug wheels

1964 Pontiac Bonneville convertible with factory air / RM Sotheby’s

 

If you read a lot of automotive histories, you’ll frequently encounter the contention that the growing popularity of factory air conditioning on American cars in the 1960s and early 1970s led to the downfall of the convertible. Was that actually true? The data isn’t so persuasive.

That Old Devil Conventional Wisdom

The conventional wisdom about U.S. convertibles is that their popularity steadily declined from the 1930s onward, until air conditioning (and to a lesser extent sunroofs) made them more or less obsolete in the early 1970s. This has been repeated countless times over the years, sometimes even accompanied by charts like this one:

U.S. Domestic Convertible Market Share vs. Factory Air Conditioning Installation Rates, 1964 to 1973

Graph showing overlapping trend lines for declining U.S. convertible market share and rising air conditioning installation rates for 1964 through 1973

The red line shows the declining market share for domestic convertibles, the purple line shows the growth in factory air conditioning installations / Sources: AMA data for factory sales of U.S. convertibles, Automotive Industries manufacturer surveys for optional equipment installation rates

 

Looking at that graph makes the correlation seem painfully obvious: A/C take rates (the purple line) went up as convertible market share (the red line) went down. However, looking at the broader sales data for convertibles reveals a more complicated trajectory.

Before World War 2

Until the early 1920s, most cars were open, especially inexpensive cars. Over the course of the ’20s, closed cars became significantly more affordable, and the popularity of open cars declined sharply, falling to roughly 10 percent of U.S. sales by 1930.

Dark blue 1922 Essex Coach parked in a garage with an American flag in the background

The 1922 Essex Coach, offered by a division of Hudson, was one of the affordable closed cars that shifted the balance of passenger car sales away from open body styles in the 1920s / Gr Auto Gallery

 

During the Great Depression, sales of open cars in North America rapidly collapsed. This was most clearly evident in roadster sales: Many domestic lines still offered inexpensive roadsters for less money than a coupe or sedan — for example, a 1931 Ford Model A roadster was $60 cheaper than a two-door sedan — but buyers who could afford a new car decided they didn’t just want them. Roadster production in the U.S. and Canada fell from 111,119 in 1931, 5.45 percent, to 11,952 in 1933, just 0.73 percent of passenger car production.

Front 3q view of a black 1931 Ford Model A roadster with Indiana license plates, parked on the grass in front of a small pond with the top up

1931 Ford Model A roadster / RM Sotheby’s

 

By the end of the 1930s, roadsters and open touring cars were nearly extinct in the U.S. and Canada. Convertible coupe and sedan sales rebounded slightly by 1940, but they remained well under 3 percent of the market.

U.S. and Canadian Passenger Car Open Body Style Production, 1931 to 1940

Graph showing U.S. and Canadian open car production (indicated with vertical bars) and market share (indicated with a red trend line) for the years 1931 to 1940

The vertical green bars represent calendar-year open-car production, while the red trend line represents market share / Source: AMA production data for roadster, touring, convertible coupe, and convertible sedan body styles (the AMA apparently didn’t release comparable figures for 1941–1942)

 

Front 3q view of a yellow 1941 Chrysler Windsor Highlander convertible coupe parked under a tree

A 1941 Chrysler Windsor Highlander convertible coupe, one of only 771 specially trimmed “Highlander” convertibles (which had Tartan check upholstery) built in 1941 / Bring a Trailer

After World War 2

In the postwar years, U.S. convertible sales made a modest recovery, climbing steadily through 1949, when the domestic market share of convertible models topped 5 percent for the first time in over 15 years.

Front 3q view of a green 1948 Nash Ambassador Custom convertible parked outside with trees in the background

In 1948, Nash offered a convertible only in the Ambassador Custom Line series; just 1,000 were built, at a list price of $2,355, over $100 more than any other 1948 Nash / RM Sotheby’s

 

Sales dipped again in the early 1950s, due in part to new competition from pillarless “hardtop convertibles” and in part to production restrictions during the Korean War. However, convertible sales then began to recover through the middle of the decade, before plateauing for several years during the late ’50s recession.

U.S. Domestic Convertible Sales and Market Share, 1947 to 1973

Graph showing U.S. factory sales of convertibles (with vertical bars) and convertible market share (with a red trend line) for the years 1947 through 1973

This chart shows calendar-year factory sales of domestic convertible models (indicated by the vertical bars) and their respective market share (indicated by the red trend line) / Source: AMA data for U.S. factory sales by calendar year (the AMA apparently didn’t release comparable figures for 1945–1946)

 

The above sales data, which are calendar year sales figures compiled by the Automobile Manufacturers Association (AMA), unfortunately only includes domestic makes, which omits an important part of the story. Prior to 1948, the U.S. really hadn’t had any appreciable new car imports. (There were a few, but according to the U.S. Department of Commerce, they’d never exceeded 1,500 units per year.) Beginning in 1948, however, import sales began to increase significantly, including a growing number of small British and European roadsters like the MG TC and TD, which had no real domestic rivals. Between 1949 and 1953, for example, Americans bought 23,488 MG TDs (plus more that were imported privately by armed forces personnel and other travelers).

Front 3q view of a red 1951 MG TD roadster

In 1951, a MG TD roadster cost less than $2,000 in the U.S.; MG sold about 3,790 of them in the States that year / Mecum Auctions

 

Compiling aggregate sales figures for imported cars in this period is very troublesome. Since the manufacturers weren’t part of the AMA, the AMA didn’t track them, and U.S. trade publications like Automotive Industries either ignored them or published only new car registration tallies for the 10 most popular makes, not separated by model or body style. Therefore, I don’t have enough reliable data to be worth charting, although just looking at the sales of major players like MG allows some rough approximations. In any case, by the late 1950s, I would estimate that imported open car sales added between 15 and 20 percent to the domestic figures.

Left side view of a black 1958 Mercury Park Lane convertible with wide whitewall tires, parked under a tree with the top down

For 1958, Mercury offered convertibles in all but the base Medalist series, but all sold poorly, thanks to a recessionary economy and Mercury’s ill-timed move upmarket — only 853 Park Lane convertibles were built that year / Mecum Auctions

 

Not all postwar roadsters and convertibles were luxury cars, but it would be fair to say that buying one was usually a luxury purchase. Therefore, it’s no great surprise that their sales tended to fluctuate with the state of the economy. In the 1950s, domestic convertible sales peaked in 1957, at 284,682, and then dipped to 193,717 during recessionary 1958 before gradually recovering in 1959–1960. Import sales were not strongly affected by those trends, since the cars were often cheaper and buyers more affluent. Combined U.S. MG and Triumph sales alone topped 30,000 units in 1958, and they were not the only players.

Front 3q view of a British Racing Green 1958 Triumph TR3A roadster in a parking lot

The 1958 Triumph TR3A roadster listed for $2,675 in the U.S., offering front disc brakes and muscular performance from its 2-liter OHV four / Bring a Trailer

The Early ’60s: More Air Conditioning, But Also More Convertibles

Although air conditioning had become more widely available in the mid-1950s, its cost made it very rare even on fairly expensive cars. In 1956, the earliest year for which I have data, the domestic makes most likely to have factory air conditioning were Cadillac, with a 26.0 percent installation rate, and Lincoln, with an installation rate of 16.2 percent. Chrysler and Imperial were third, with a combined installation rate of only 6.8 percent. However, A/C installation rates rose steadily, with the overall domestic take rate rising from about 4.1 percent in 1957 to 23.3 percent by 1965.

Right front 3q view of a maroon 1961 Pontiac Catalina convertible with 8-lug aluminum wheels

Only 14 percent of full-size Pontiacs had factory air in 1961; this Catalina convertible is one of them / Coyote Classics

 

That same period saw the largest postwar boom in U.S. domestic convertible sales, which doubled between 1958 and 1965, from 254,880 cars to 509,414. (Postwar market share of domestic convertibles actually peaked in 1963, at 6.4 percent, but more cars were sold in 1965.) This still doesn’t include imported roadster and sports car sales, which continued to account for at least 25,000 units a year in the early part of the decade, and jumped to perhaps 40,000 a year following the debut of the popular MGB and Triumph TR4.

Front 3q view of a British Racing Green 1963 MGB roadster

The 1963 MGB had better weather protection than the outgoing MGA (including roll-up side windows and vent wings), which probably undoubtedly contributed to its popularity / Bring a Trailer

 

Here’s how convertible sales correlated with A/C installation rates:

U.S. Domestic Convertible Sales vs. Factory Air Conditioning Installation Rates, 1957 to 1973

Graph comparing U.S. domestic convertible sales (indicated with vertical bars) compared to installation rates for factory air conditioning (indicated with a purple trend line)

The green vertical bars indicate U.S. domestic convertible sales by calendar year, while the purple trend line indicates model year installation rates for factory air conditioning / Sources: AMA factory sales data, Automotive Industries manufacturer surveys for optional equipment installation rates

 

If it was the success of factory air conditioning that chipped away at the popularity of convertibles, you might expect to see evidence of that in the convertible sales figures as A/C take rates topped 10 percent. Both air conditioning and convertibles were still fairly extravagant purchases, and a buyer who could afford one could likely afford the other, if not necessarily both. However, the initial rise in sales of factory air coincided with the greatest sales of open cars in 30 years.

Front 3q view of a black 1964 Oldsmobile Starfire convertible with the top down

1964 Oldsmobile Starfire convertible / Mecum Auctions

 

This period was also the heyday of sporty cars in the U.S., when nearly every domestic make offered at least one flashy “buckets-and-console” pseudo-sports model in hardtop and convertible forms. Unsurprisingly, this coincided with the the ’60s fad for domestic four-speed transmissions, which also peaked in 1965 with 444,776 sales, comprising just over five percent of model year production.

Red vinyl interior of a black 1964 Oldsmobile Starfire convertible with the top down and the driver's door open

The Starfire exemplified the contemporary fad for bucket seats and a center console with floor shift / Mecum Auctions

 

Like most fads, it didn’t last, but one of its principal consequences was that the sporty car and convertible markets splintered into more specialized segments: cheap-wheels compacts, pony cars, sporty intermediates, imported sports cars, luxury cruisers, and big cars, each appealing to a distinct audience with a somewhat different set of tastes.

Front 3q view of a gold 1965 Lincoln Continental convertible sedan

Like 90.6 percent of 1965 Lincolns, this Continental convertible has factory air conditioning — 1965 was also the best year for Continental convertible sales, at 3,356 units / RM Sotheby’s

 

The problem this posed commercially was that if you cut up a niche into too many pieces, the individual slices can become too thin to be sustainable, which is what began to happen to open-car sales in the latter half of the 1960s. Most of the cheap-wheels ragtops soon went away, unable to compete with their sexier pony car cousins. Domestic luxury and personal luxury customers were becoming more fascinated with blind rear quarter panels and lusher interior treatments; a crucial sign in this regard was that the Ford Thunderbird convertible disappeared after 1966, superseded by a four-door Landau. Big-car buyers, meanwhile, increasingly decided they’d rather have bench seats and a roof over their heads.

Front 3q view of a red 1966 Ford Thunderbird convertible with the top down

Ford built 5,049 1966 Thunderbird convertibles, the last drop-top Thunderbird until 2001 / Mecum Auctions

 

As you can see from the above charts, domestic convertible sales began to drop off after 1965. This wasn’t true of imported roadsters and convertibles; to the extent I’m comfortable generalizing the incomplete data, imported sports car sales remained fairly consistent throughout the latter ’60s.

Front 3q view of a black 1967 Cadillac convertible DeVille with the top up, with a yellow New York license plate

In 1967, Cadillac sold 18,200 convertible DeVilles, most of them with air conditioning — this one has automatic climate control / Bring a Trailer

 

Furthermore, it wasn’t until 1969 that both domestic convertible sales and domestic convertible market share fell significantly below their ’50s median. In calendar 1968, for example, convertibles accounted for 3.14 percent of domestic sales, only a little below the 1950 to 1959 average of 3.36 percent. The total number of domestic convertibles sold in 1968 — 276,731 — was only a little below the ’50s peak of 284,682 cars, in 1957.

Front 3q view of a Lime Gold 1968 Ford Mustang convertible with GT stripes and wire wheel covers

Only 25,376 1968 Mustangs were convertibles, about 8 percent of production; this one has air conditioning / Mecum Auctions

 

Installation rates of factor A/C on domestic cars continued to climb during that period, reaching an average of 38.4 percent for 1967 and 54.0 percent for 1969. Did that contribute to the decline of convertible sales? Maybe a little, but the pertinent question is which convertible sales. As I’ve previously written, air conditioning installation rates for low-price full-size cars had surpassed the domestic average by 1967, and there is some correlation between A/C installation rates and convertible sales in those lines. For instance, Chevrolet built almost 30,000 full-size convertibles for 1967, 24,730 for 1968, and only 14,415 for 1969, during which the factory air conditioning installation rate rose from 39.3 to 62.1 percent.

Front 3q view of a cream 1968 Chevrolet Impala SS427 convertible parked on a rural road with a blue sky in the background

This 1968 Chevrolet Impala is a very rare combination: an SS427 convertible with Comfortron automatic climate control / Callaway Classics

 

However, air conditioning generally wasn’t a big factor in pony car sales, and in the intermediate class, A/C was only really common on the Buick Special/Skylark and Oldsmobile F-85/Cutlass in this period. Many of the imported open cars of the time didn’t offer air conditioning at all, except perhaps as a crude dealer-installed kit. For buyers in those segments, a more significant factor may have been rising insurance rates: Increasingly, convertibles and imported sports cars cost a lot more to insure, reflecting their higher repair costs, vulnerability to theft, and higher rates of some kinds of injuries.

Air conditioning controls in a 1968 Ford Mustang convertible

Select-Aire cost $360 in a Mustang in 1968, and was fairly rare, installed in only 17.5 percent of model year production / Mecum Auctions

 

Convertible Collapse

By the late ’60s, the U.S. convertible market was beginning to succumb to a new problem, which I’d summarize as, “If you don’t build it, they won’t come.” As the individual niches became smaller, it became harder to justify the cost of continuing slow-selling models. Consequently, slower-selling convertibles began to disappear completely: Lincoln dropped its convertible after 1967, while AMC and Imperial abandoned theirs after 1968. Looking at the sales figures, you can easily see why (the final 1968 Imperial Crown convertible sold a mere 474 units, the 1968 AMC Rebel convertibles only 1,200), but it left ragtop fanciers in some segments with fewer and fewer choices, which began to have a reciprocal effect on total convertible sales.

Front 3q view of a yellow 1968 Imperial Crown convertible

1968 was the final year for the Imperial convertible / Classic442.com via ClassicCars.com

 

This problem was greatly exacerbated in 1969–1970 by more stringent federal motor vehicle safety standards. Charting a chronology of federal regulations is complex because they go through several stages of announcement, draft, public comment, and finalization, but by 1969, automakers knew that federal safety officials were contemplating big chances to the occupant protection standard, FMVSS No. 208, including rollover protection requirements. The revised 208 standard was published in 1970, and while it didn’t take immediate effect, it appeared to sound the death knell for convertibles in the United States.

Front 3q view of a Cameo White 1972 Oldsmobile Cutlass Supreme 442 convertible with Super Stock I wheels, a Force-Air hood, and side stripes

The GM A-body convertibles went away after 1972; this 1972 Oldsmobile Cutlass Supreme is a very rare 4-4-2 convertible with the 455 and four-speed / Bring a Trailer

 

U.S. automakers went to court to challenge other parts of the revised FMVSS 208, but they didn’t even try to fight the de facto convertible ban, apparently having decided that it was no longer worth the bother. In 1970, domestic convertible sales had fallen below 100,000 units for the first time since the 1930s. Some existing convertible models would continue through the end of their existing generation, but they wouldn’t be replaced, and there would be no new ones in the foreseeable future.

Air conditioning controls in a 1972 Oldsmobile Cutlass Supreme convertible with Saddle interior

This 1972 Olds 4-4-2 convertible has air conditioning as well as the four-speed / Bring a Trailer

 

Here’s the AMA’s domestic sales data through 1973, in tabular form:

U.S. Domestic Convertible Factory Sales, 1947 to 1973

YearConvertiblesAll Factory SalesConvertible Market Share
1947 173,863 3,558,178 4.89%
1948 196,597 3,909,270 5.03%
1949 259,334 5,114,269 5.07%
1950 208,090 6,665,863 3.12%
1951 143,388 5,338,435 2.69%
1952 100,116 4,320,794 2.32%
1953 159,200 6,121,787 2.60%
1954 155,667 5,558,897 2.80%
1955 239,790 7,920,186 3.03%
1956 198,962 5,816,109 3.42%
1957 284,682 6,113,344 4.66%
1958 193,717 4,257,812 4.55%
1959 254,880 5,591,243 4.56%
1960 304,539 6,674,796 4.56%
1961 300,472 5,542,707 5.42%
1962 437,659 6,933,240 6.31%
1963 489,824 7,637,728 6.41%
1964 489,494 7,751,822 6.31%
1965 509,414 9,305,561 5.47%
1966 394,679 8,598,326 4.59%
1967 306,078 7,436,764 4.12%
1968 276,731 8,822,158 3.14%
1969 201,997 8,223,715 2.46%
1970 91,863 6,546,817 1.40%
1971 87,725 8,584,592 1.02%
1972 61,655 8,823,938 0.70%
1973 50,837 9,657,647 0.53%

I don’t have complete AMA/MVMA factory sales data for the period of 1974 to 1976, but by that point, there were so few domestic convertibles left that it was possible to simply add the individual totals and divide by total model year production. Since this doesn’t line up neatly with the calendar-year factory sales data, I’ve charted it separately:

U.S. Domestic Convertible Sales and Market Share, 1974 to 1976

Graph showing U.S. domestic convertible sales (indicated with vertical bars) and market share (indicated with a red trend line) for the 1974 through 1976 model years

The vertical green bars indicate model year convertible production, the red trend line indicates market share — as you can see, it wasn’t much / Source: AMA model year production data

 

That the remaining U.S. convertible models lasted as long as they did — GM’s final B-body convertibles and Corvette convertible survived through 1975, the Cadillac Eldorado through 1976 — was due to a regulatory reprieve: In 1971, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration established a temporary exemption for convertibles from the rollover safety standard. This exemption was originally intended to expire after the 1977 model year, but in December 1972, a federal court ruled that the National Traffic and Motor Vehicle Safety Act of 1966, the statutory basis of the federal safety standards didn’t permit the agency to ban convertibles and sports cars, and in fact obligated the agency “to afford such vehicles special consideration.” It took some years for the NHTSA to decide what that should actually mean in regulatory terms — the eventual decision was to extend the temporary exemption indefinitely — but U.S. automakers had already thrown in the towel, so until the ’80s, domestic convertibles would be left to aftermarket specialists.

White 1974 Pontiac Grand Ville convertible with styled Rally wheels and the top down

The Pontiac Grand Ville was one of the last remaining full-size convertibles of the ’70s, offered through 1975; this is a 1974 / Mecum Auctions

 

British, European, and Japanese automakers had been very concerned about the federal regulations — the 1972 court ruling was in response in part to a petition by the Automobile Importers of America, an unincorporated association representing Alfa Romeo, British Leyland, BMW, Citroen, DAF, Fuji Heavy Industries (Subaru), Honda, Lotus, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Peugeot, Renault, Rolls-Royce, SAAB, Toyota, and Volvo — but they eventually got what they wanted from the court, enabling various long-in-the-tooth British and Italian convertibles to remain on sale in the U.S.

Front 3q view of a white 1977 Fiat Sport Spider 124 with U.S. 5-mph bumpers and the top up

Fiat sold 12,935 Sport Spider 124 convertibles in the U.S. in 1977; after Fiat pulled out in 1983, Malcolm Bricklin continued to market the 124-based convertible (renamed Pininfarina Azzurra) through about 1985 / Davidsclassiccars.com

 

Surprisingly, none of the regulatory issues really dampened sales of those imported cars. The same data limitations I mentioned earlier remain, but even a rough back-of-the-envelope estimate indicates that imported roadster and convertible sales never dropped below 50,000 units a year throughout the ’70s, and sometimes approached as many as 80,000 cars a year.

Front 3q view of a Carman Red 1978 Alfa Romeo Spider with Cromodora alloy wheels and chin and tail spoilers

The ’60s vintage Alfa Romeo Spider remained available in the U.S. into the 1990s; this is a 1978 Niki Lauda Edition / Bring a Trailer

 

Their continued popularity not only challenges the air conditioning argument, but also the hypotheses that U.S. convertible sales declined because of bad air quality (which made top-down driving a recipe for eye irritation and respiratory distress) and the expansion of the interstate highway system (whose higher speeds tended to make convertibles more uncomfortable than fun). It would be hard to envision a new ’70s car less suited for American interstate travel than a tiny, elderly British roadster like the late MG Midget, and yet it continued to sell distressingly well. Even in 1979, the Midget’s final year, American buyers still bought about 6,000 of them, along with about 20,000 of the bigger rubber-bumpered MGB. Obviously, air conditioned comfort and easy highway cruising weren’t the first priorities for every convertible shopper.

Right side view of a Pageant Blue 1979 MG Midget with U.S. bumpers, 13-inch Rostyle wheels, and a black top

Not so much a car as a rather cramped shoe with an exhaust pipe, but Americans kept buying the MG Midget through 1979 / Bring a Trailer

 

Nevertheless, many of these survivors lingered in an awkward limbo of being too popular to kill and yet not popular enough to justify anything more than modest updates for safety and emissions compliance. Their sales volume was still inconsequential by Detroit standards, which was why domestic automakers didn’t rush to return to the convertible market even after the regulatory situation became clearer.

Front view of a River Blue 1979 Volkswagen Super Beetle convertible with the top down

Another antiquated ragtop holdover, the Volkswagen Super Beetle convertible survived in the U.S. through 1979 / Barrett-Jackson

 

This gets back to the point that I made earlier about market fragmentation. Even in the ’70s, there was obviously still some market for convertibles, even big domestic convertibles without a premium badge, but it was no longer enough to justify offering a convertible or two for each make (as in the ’50s), much less in each compact, intermediate, full-size, and specialty model line (as had briefly been tried in the early ’60s). Niche markets tend to be fragile, and they may collapse entirely if there are either too many players or too few.

Front 3q view of a Twilight Blue 1981 Cadillac Eldorado convertible with wire wheel covers and the top down

Although Cadillac didn’t offer a factory convertible in 1981, this Eldorado was one of 126 ’81 cars converted by The Hess & Eisenhardt Company, at a cost of $13,500 (on top of the original price of the car) / Bring a Trailer

 

Still, convertibles made a modest comeback in the 1980s and 1990s, including a domestic resurgence kicked off by Chrysler in 1982.

Front 3q view of a beige 1982 Chrysler LeBaron convertible with the top down

In 1982, Chrysler became the first U.S. automaker to offer a factory convertible since 1976 — convertibles like this 1982 LeBaron accounted for about 12.4 percent of 1982 Chrysler production / Bring a Trailer

 

Convertibles have been niche items since the Great Depression, and as such, their sales have always been highly variable. Looking at the numbers, their decline in the late ’60s and early ’70s seems mostly the product of a relatively brief sporty car fad that quickly proved unsustainable, with the subsequent regulatory challenges then preventing the segment from stabilizing at a lower volume, as it had in previous decades.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say air conditioning had no impact on that — it probably had some, particularly in the cheaper price brackets — but I think it was ultimately a fairly minor factor, and the correlation between rising A/C sales and declining convertible sales was much less significant than is usually supposed. Correlation isn’t causation, and conventional wisdom isn’t always right.

Related Reading

Automotive Histories: The Last Full-Size Convertibles (by William Stopford)
Air Conditioning On Low-Priced Full-Size U.S. Cars In The 1960s (by me)
Curbside Classic: 1973 Cadillac Eldorado Convertible – Lipstick On A Barge (by Tatra87)
Curbside Classic: 1982 Chrysler LeBaron Convertible – One Had To Be There (by Joseph Dennis)