(for full-size view of this spreadsheet, click the furthest right icon (“View full size workbook”) on the menu bar directly above)
I’ve been working on this spreadsheet on and off for some years now, because this information was not readily available anywhere else. The model year production stats for any given entry (by model size/type) were compiled manually by adding the individual trim/model/body type stats in the Standard Encyclopedia of American Cars. For historical analysis, it’s vastly more useful to have these numbers by model category (i.e. Full Size Chevrolet; Falcon; etc.).
Here are some notes and disclaimers:
This spreadsheet was compiled as a tool for the historical analysis of sales of various brands, makes, lines and types of passenger cars. My version goes through 1996, to support my post “Who Killed The Big American Car“, and the large RWD car categories are complete but to date I have only completed all the model categories through 1975. It becomes increasingly complex in the ’80s and ’90s with the proliferation of new models/categories. My next step is to hopefully complete it through 1980, and so on. It’s a work in progress.
All numbers are rounded off to the nearest thousand. Furthermore, since these many individual numbers in the Encyclopedia had to be added manually, I typically rounded all entries up and down to the nearest thousand. This means that the final result may vary slightly from a more detailed calculation.
I expect there may well be errors. They could be simple addition errors or others arising from different breakouts of how this information is compiled and shown in the Encyclopedia. And of course these are all subject to the many qualifications that the Editors of the Standard Encyclopedia of American Cars have noted in their preface.
As to market share, there’s a number of ways to define the market. Prior to 1977, there was the passenger car market and the truck market. But with the proliferation of SUVs and pickups used for personal use, the combined market was redefined in 1977 as the light vehicle market. For this spreadsheet through 1975, I am using only the passenger car market for market share (domestic production less exports). To that I add imports. The total of these tow are on line 220 “Total Passenger Car Market”. Unfortunately, these are not the same as lines 210 and 212, (Domestic Car Market and Net Domestic Car Market). These numbers were sourced from other publications. But the differences are generally quite small and mostly immaterial.
The “Full Size RWD Market Share” is of course limited just to the share of all full size RWD cars.
I have included VW annual sales, and hope to eventually add other popular import brands. They are a subset of all import sales. Also, import sales may include domestic brands built in Canada, which became increasingly common after the Canada-US Auto Pact was signed in 1965. This raises a thorny question: the Encyclopedia does not seem to take this in consideration. Clearly they are not including Canadian domestic production and sales, yet they do seem to include Canadian-built cars sold in the US, like the Pontiac Parisienne. This could make things increasingly complicated in more recent decades, where Canadian-sourced vehicles were imported in substantial numbers. It all gets quite complicated, but these issues are of relatively limited impact in the time period of this spreadsheet.
All of these stats are for model year; unfortunately all-too often calendar year stats — which Wikipedia lists — are mixed up with model year stats.
Note to other web publishers: if you use any of the stats compiled here, please credit the source with a link back to this page. Thanks.
A worthy endeavor, but your ’75 Cadillac numbers don’t add up.
The answer to your question is OPEC, the CAFE preference for “light trucks,” smaller family size, yet more cars per family, and younger people not wanting to drive what older people did, not necessarily in that order. Another question is why were big cars so popular in the first place?
Yes; I added the Eldorado late and it’s not being added in the brand totals. I suspect there may well be others like that.
What question are you answering?
“Who Killed The Big American Car“
It was Roger Daltrey.
Hollywood stunt drivers wiped out their fair share, particularly of early ’70s big Fords and mid/late-70s B-body Mopars (which were only *technically* midsize).
I admire your perseverance as I think I’d give up in 1946. I feel guilty saying this but a spreadsheet is a bit of a blunt instrument for the complexity of the data: a relational database like Access would probably be easier to add too and research.
I’m not familiar with Access or other databases.
Excel makes charting very easy; that’s what this is really mostly for. I’ve done a number of chart posts before, and will do more now. It’s much easier to see trends in a visual format. This exists mostly as a basis for myself and other contributors that want to use it for that.
Access is great for large data bases (an entire annual payroll, HR analysis for all employees, or detailed timesheet analysis for 1,000+ employees over 12 months).
Once Excel developed pivot tables and could download rows and rows of info, Access was not as important in our workgroups.
I also admire Paul’s perseverance.
I hope he hired a high school or college kid to assist with data input!
I wish!
Going back over a decade ago, I would add up the individual numbers in the Encyclopedia for articles I was writing. I always wrote in the totals in the margins. So I had a bit of a head start when I began this spreadsheet about 7 years ago or so. It’s something I then kept adding to on long dark rainy Oregon evenings.
As to whether I’ll actually keep expanding it is a bit of an unknown. Depends on the weather. 🙂
Great work – the chart really illustrates the dominance of GM during this era. Ford occasionally challenged Chevy for the top spot, but Mercury and Lincoln were small fry compared to Pontiac, Olds, Buick, and Cadillac. Chrysler’s “volume” brand Plymouth was priced about the same as Chevy and Ford, but sold in volumes that were closer to the far pricier Buick. And it is amazing the independents held on as long as they did given their tiny sales and lack of economies of scale – although even they had more volume than any non-US brand until at least the late 1950s. Who back then could have predicted the sad state of GM today.
According to the chart, Kaiser-Frazer really did very welll in 1951, making up for a very poor 1950. Is that data real? I know they released a redesigned body that year, and there were various production shenanigans, but still it’s surprising that 261k K-F’s left the plant in 1951.
Thank you for all this work! It’s very interesting!
Just going from memory, but weren’t the 1951 Kaisers released earlier than the typical fall 1950 introduction time, so the ’51 model year ran for a longer time?
The restyled 1951 Kaisers were released early. In those days, there were no federal regulations that placed any limitations on when a model year could begin and end. The 1950 Kaisers and Frazers had been a tough sell against the all-new cars from the Big Three and the independents. The 1951 Kaisers had an all-new body and interior, and Kaiser wanted to get them to the market as soon as possible.
Also note that the new Henry J compact was released in 1951.
To create the 1951 Frazer, the company made modifications to the remaining 1950 bodies. The modifications made the car look all-new. It sold surprisingly well, but the company discontinued the Frazer when it used the remaining bodies.
Right. According to Langworth, the senior 1951 Kaisers were introduced at the Chicago Auto Show in February, 1950, and volume production began on March 1. Some leftover 1951 cars were renumbered and designated as 1952 models at the end of 1951; the true 1952 models were not introduced until February, 1952, reaching dealers in April.
So depending on how you want to count it, the 1951 Kaisers were on the market as much as two years.
Langworth, by the way, gives Kaiser production as 181,316 for 1950 and 99,343 for 1951. I think those are calendar year figures, however.
H’mm. “Kaiser” should have just called them “52’s” and been done with it.
FWIU the only rules in place now are that the “model year” must contain no less or more than one (1) January 1st and no car can be sold as more than one year ahead of the calendar year (so January 1, 2024 was the first day a 2025 model year car could be sold to a member of the public).
I have downloaded a copy for review. Very good work, and the inclusion of VW as well. The grouping of the imports is understandable, they were a mere fraction in most of this time span. Your import category would include Japanese and European makes I imagine.
Thanks Paul.
WOW!
Very useful info! Thanks for the grunt work. I’m definitely bookmarking this.
Did you compute the market share percentages yourself or does Excel compute that?
Excel. That’s what it’s there for.
Now if I could only find an optical scanner that could read the numbers in the Encyclopedia and convert them to Excel.
I see a Pony Car share (line 231), but there is a logic error.
Maybe referring to the wrong line while computing a formula.
Also, the compact car market share (line 225, column 1973) has a logic error.
Please don’t take this as a criticism. I spent half my career crunching numbers in Excel, especially pivot tables. Never failed that I had a bad formula somewhere and my boss(es) would kick it back to me.
No, I appreciate the feedback. That’s one of the main reasons I posted it, so that other eyeballs could find mistakes. I will update it when I get home in a few days.
Look at the share of the 1975 market held by brands no long in production:
Plymouth…5.2%
Mercury…..4.7%
Pontiac……6.1%
Olds……….7.3%
That’s close to 23.3% of the North American market.
Many a family which held one of these franchises lived a good life!!
Waiting for the next batch of data (beyond 1975).
The above were slowly chipped away via the Nippon and Korean invasion.
And the remaining midlevel domestic brands have strayed far from their mission with 1 percent market shares if that.
I feel Hyundai and Nissan sort of have the modern version of Plymouth’s positioning. (I would say Nissan was more like Pontiac but they have moved downmarket IMO). Honda seems to be in the Pontiac/Mercury class. Olds you could argue either some of the Japanese luxury brands or increasingly Tesla. (I guess GMC has also absorbed a lot of the Pontiac/Olds type customer as well).
Compacts (row 225) includes the Vega (row 21) and Pinto (row 41).
May I suggest you move these to Subcompact (row 229) which only reflects the Gremlin (row 94) and Crowley (row 202) in the spreadsheet.
This would help explain the minor dip in imports (row 225) for years 1973 & 1974 since most imports were considered subcompacts in the early 70’s. I’m sure Toyota and Datsun were constrained in volume as many in the domestic market were flocking to Vegas, Pintos, & Gremlins during the Crisis of 1973. IIRC, these years were the all time sales volume for these Detroit cars.
This is a great resource and an impressive amount of work!
This is really going to be instructive. Many thanks for compiling and sharing!