What if it became very difficult or even illegal to have a personal vehicle?
Ok, let me elaborate a bit more on this question with a short scenario.
Let’s say that at some point in the next few years, strange laws started being passed in whatever country you may live in, Enforcing strange things like “You can’t drive on Sundays” or “All vehicles sold and registered in (blank) must be electric by (year)”. Slowly making it more and more difficult to own a personal road vehicle, and these types of laws start to pop up not only for road vehicles but for private boats and planes as well, as laws like “You cannot fly over the Grand Canyon” or “You can’t go boating in (blank) lake”. Also, just imagine that there are actual reasons for these laws to exist in the first place.
Around the same time period, lots of money has been being put into autonomous vehicles and public transportation systems to try to make it easier to have mobility around the higher populated areas, while at the same time making it harder for private vehicle owners to operate their vehicle, as much less money is being put into the continuation of older roads and aftermarket parts for vehicles 20 years and older, and now you have to download an app on your phone to use a gas station or charging station as both of those places are also now completely automated.
At this point for the majority of people it’s actually easier and cheaper to use public transport such as a Uber/Lift or taking a city bus in highly populated areas, and in many places in your country owning a vehicle becomes less and less popular as a whole, since it is now more difficult and more expensive to do, most people who still want to drive just rent cars or trucks. Auto manufactures are making less and less personal vehicles every year due to lack of overall demand and are moving towards public transport, autonomous vehicles and rental vehicles, since that’s where the profit is now. The automotive aftermarket also begins to dry up completely as they only need to make aftermarket parts for public transport and autonomous vehicles which are retired every 5 to 10 years.
Eventually, owning a vehicle is deemed unnecessary and wasteful, since the majority can rent anything they really could ever need for a daily, weekly, or monthly fee there is no longer a need to own a vehicle. A law is placed in which you cannot operate a vehicle that you have ownership of on public roads, public lakes, or in the sky, and you are given 3 choices:
1. Keep the vehicle stored away and off the main roads, out of the water, or out of the sky permanently.
2. to sell it to a scrap yard, museum, or rental company and see if one of them will take it.
3. Continue to drive on public roads, lakes, or airspace and risk having the vehicle legally possessed by (blank) safety organization and face a massive fine or even prison time.
Of course, there would be some people that would fight these laws and try to keep the hobby of working and using your own vehicles on the table, and there would end up being many underground sources of areas where you could find parts or vehicles. And there might even be some private road courses that are still available to use, if you have a lot of money that is, those who keep their vehicles need to pay a large fee to keep using them anywhere, and those who can’t still must keep them off the main roads, lakes, or in the sky to avoid confusion as the autonomous vehicle systems would be unprepared to deal with unscheduled vehicles at this time.
This is a pretty basic scenario and I know I left some things out, but I think it gets the point across, how would you feel and what would you do if this situation or a situation similar to this started to happen in your country and why? And what other things do you think would happen in this scenario that I might have missed?
Autonomous vehicles are a myth. Take that off the table.
They’re not, though. They don’t exist now (Tesla fantasies notwithstanding), and L5 autonomobiles will be awhile in coming, but they are coming.
My guess is they’ll start showing up in airport terminal to parking lot type situations first, and that shouldn’t be that far away.
I can’t see such a thing ever being politically or even technically feasible in the US, even in very progressive regions or cities. To say nothing of sparsely populated areas between the coasts.
Pointless speculation imo. It’ll never happen in this country, there’s too many people who live in remote or rural areas with no public trans alternatives and minimal-to-no surveillance systems. In our own case we have enough ICE vehicles with low miles to easily last the rest of our lives, several vintage ones that can live in the garage for clandestine fun runs, and an electric vehicle purchase on the near horizon, with a solar system to keep it charged, fuel storage galore, not to mention running on propane, which is easily done. There’s too many people in this country that will not stand still for the above hypothetical draconian scenario, and the politicians at least understand that much.
“There’s too many people in this country that will not stand still for the above hypothetical draconian scenario, and the politicians at least understand that much.”
Agreed, which is why they are approaching it with the ban of the sale of new ICE vehicles to drive the poor out of owning vehicles and into public transit.
What “new” ICEs are “the poors” buying these days? Those with less money to spend around here usually buy used. That won’t change.
I’m not saying I believe WA state’s proposal is a good idea overall, but I don’t believe your statement to be a good argument either for no other reason than what would be the point of specifically making poor people take the bus? Who wins and how? (Note this is one of the few countries in the world where bizarrely “the bus” and “the train” and “public transportation” are generally considered a low-caste thing to hopefully not have to associate oneself with. Some might even call it “socialist”!)
Eliminating the middle class and forcing everyone into a life of dependent serfdom is the authoritarian dream. Socialism, fascism and communism are just means to an end; now being marketed under the Climate Change brand. And for the misanthropes who have such dreams, stripping away all means of self-sufficiency also makes your subjects defenseless when you no longer can think of a use for them.
What I find to be funny is how many people don’t think they’re ‘the poors’ in this revolution. Forbes magazine published tips for people who make less than $300,000 that are trying to adapt to their lesser new lives. The bar will only get higher.
Methinks you and many others don’t realize the difference between Socialism a la Venezuela vs what people call Socialism in Denmark or Finland. If you only make $300k a year and live in Manhattan or SF or Seattle proper you will in fact be poor compared to many of your more recent arrival peers. On the other hand, $300k goes a lot further as little as 50 miles outside.
$300,000! How about less than $30,000?
Yes Poor buy used and well used cars. That is part of the problem. What kind of range will still be present on a 20 year old EV? Then there is the charging issue, it will be a very long time until people in moderately priced apartments can expect to be able to charge at home. If those apartments do install chargers they will be shared and will be at a premium vs area electrical rates and include idle fees. Because that range is low on that old degraded battery they will need to charge frequently. Replacing the battery pack on a 15-20 is unlikely to be a cost effective proposal.
So yeah the hassle and expense of owning a car goes way up for those that can’t afford a new or even newer car and have access to their own charger at home or work.
Never happen
My uncle has a country place, that no one knows about…..
“He says it used to be a farm before the motor law”. . Neil Peart was visonary. …..
A Gleaming Alloy Air Car. Who thinks this stuff up? Peart was amazing.
When I first saw this QOTD, Red Barchetta’s lyrics were the first thing that came to mind. Somehow, I knew you would reply, Lee. 😉
Yeah, that’ll be me, sneaking out to uncover my Mustang for a Sunday drive when no one is looking once the “Motor Law” is established.
The first time I heard this song, I thought it belonged on 2112, considering the story on the first side of that album.
Sadly, below, it would seem that the conversation has become a bit dystopian, perhaps making 2112’s first side the more appropriate choice of Neil’s lyrics.
Perhaps Paul needs to “Assume Control”. 😉
I just hope not. As I head toward a time in my life with reduced driving and plenty of space to store a vehicle, the ability to easily rent is still no substitute for just walking out to a car kept clean to my standards, having the adjustments to the seat, radio, etc., just where I left them, and finding my usual stored stuff in the car.
Welcome to Curbside TTAC! 🙂
It may surprise you to hear this but there are loads of countries, cities, areas across the world where people already do this (and have been doing so for decades) not by government decree but by personal choice, i.e. many people in cities and even well outside of cities in Western Europe don’t own a car, let alone multiples, but instead (by choice, mind you) rely on dependable, efficient, less expensive public transportation. I’d say NYC, Chicago, and San Francisco are probable the three American cities that are the most similar in this regard, but even there it is a far, far, far (let me emphasize “far”) cry from what can actually be done and is done elsewhere, including countries that you may consider to be backward and insular.
Fact is, you already CAN rent any vehicle you may want or need. And people do, not just when they fly somewhere, but also to rent something that differs from what they own based on a particular need.
Fact is, many cities and countries (largely not here) have very efficient public transportation networks. *(Uber and Lyft are not public, they are private unlicensed/unregulated people making a generally very poor financial decision for themselves) And it works, generally quite well.
Fact is, many cars/vehicles already ARE electric and the better, more convenient and user-friendly ones do not require opening an app to charge, you either do it in your garage or pull up to a station and the car and charger (reliably) do the financial part of the transaction without your input. Both far more convenient than a gas station but I know I’ll never convince anyone of that who hasn’t actually tried it.
So most of these things you describe are already being done by choice. The only one of the three that I highlighted that will never happen here is good public transportation, our political system simply precludes it from happening. The same way that outlawing private vehicle ownership will never happen, we can’t even outlaw people dying due to not being able to afford insulin, but happily outlaw those same people from crossing a border for purposes of purchasing the exact same US-made medication for far, far less.
Perfect comment, IMHO.
Also: the hidden question is about city planning. Are cities (communities of all sizes) being optimized for individual motorized traffic or optimized for the people? – If this question is properly addressed then there will be a place for all modes of transportation.
Go to https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC0intLFzLaudFG-xAvUEO-A and dive into this rabbit hole. There are plenty of links to explore.
Try writing that again, but this time, pretend we’re not idiots.
No I think I was clear enough. Nothing I wrote was incorrect or merely an opinion. There is a distinct line between “idiot” and “simply not aware of” but idiot was your word, not mine.
Do you remember COVID? It was this thing that happened that blew up all of our illusions about the benefits of mass transit, about the resilience of rental car companies, about the global supply chain and its ability to rapidly replace our vehicle fleet, and about the horrors of allowing the WEF to own our politicians. What you wrote amounts to a compendium of obsolete opinions.
Yeah I remember everyone I knew was working from home and curtailing in person interactions. Some unfortunates had to go to work in person (or chose to), bummer, for the most part those that actually were doing the work were also trying to protect themselves. I also saw that it was “cured” quite quickly except for the people that wanted to (and still want to) exercise the “freedom” to not mask up and protect themselves and everyone else or not get a shot to not actually experience “freedom” anymore. Everyone got free money from the government and everyone I know cashed their checks, even the ones bleating against “socialism”…Did you send yours back, I’m curious? You’d be the first I know of, seriously.
Where did you exactly “need” to go when everything was shut down? I took lots of lovely walks and hikes, experienced new things.
The GSC would have been plenty fine, some foolish car companies decided not to safeguard their chip orders and are now paying the price for being beholden to usually one supplier who they treated poorly in the past. Others figured out ways to engineer around it and are thriving.
Ah, the Corona rears its ugly head even here.
But riddle me this: how come a highly public-transport-dependent country like Japan only had a small fraction of COVID infections compared to private car- (and truck-)loving USA?
Why, it almost sounds like that particular argument against public transport is a red herring…
Japan kept COVID under control by controlling its border. In the US, our government won’t let that happen, so there is a much greater risk associated with the commons.
I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised that some people think those stimulus checks were free, and that the recent government spending has nothing to do with the cost of living shooting through the roof.
Once the virus got to Japan (and it got there before the US, just to remind you of the timeline), the spread was probably contained because people know how to use PPE here and do so very conscientiously. Closing the borders was ineffective in keeping the virus out, as the measure was taken weeks after after local infections had already started. Oh, and by the way, the US closed their borders too (for foreigners), at the time. With the same results…
Truth is nobody really knows exactly why Japan had so few COVID infections until omicron. But it’s certain that public transport is far less dangerous than nightclubs, bars and restaurants in terms of generating viral hotspots. So the point remains that mass transit can still work during a pandemic (Japan) and that contamination rates can be high in settings that favour personal transport (US). therefore the case for public transport being more dangerous in a pandemic is pretty weak.
This sums up many my views as well.
I can’t see cars being ‘outlawed’ any time soon, but restrictions within urban areas are already happening and are likely to expand.
More and more though it’s about choice. I’ve been carless by choice in Vancouver BC for many years now, after I realized (the upside of car theft) that I actually didn’t need a car for 90% of my daily activities, and that I actually preferred getting around the city by bike, transit, or on foot.
It’s helped that over the past decade or so transit services in the city have been significantly expanded, as has the number of safe bike routes, including a network of separated bike lanes criss-crossing the downtown and including most of the bridges.
The choice to live without a car, or with only one instead of two, or to just use a car less often, has become increasingly popular (in a city with extremely expensive housing, one less thing to spend large amounts of money on makes a lot of sense). This in turn has led to more neighbourhoods providing extensive shops and services within walking or biking distance. When a car is necessary for an hour or two for specific shopping trips there are 3 or 4 car share vehicles parked within a few blocks of the house, and for the occasional summer trip a rental car is always available.
The upshot for me is that I rarely spend over $1000 a year for transportation which leaves significant room for spending in any other areas. More of that spending also tends to take place in my immediate neighbourhood. There’s a growing sense that being able to live without a car in a smaller house in a walkable urban neighbourhood may represent an actual improvement in standard of living, when compared to the suburban alternative of a much larger house with two or three cars in the driveway, but requiring car use for virtually every daily activity, no matter how small.
It comes down to the real benefit having more transportation choices, and not being limited to private car use for everything – walking when it’s feasible, biking on a safe route when it’s little further (or just for exercise), frequent and reliable transit to get downtown without the hassle of traffic and parking, and renting a car by the hour, by the day, or by the week when each of those options are what’s needed.
Having these choices relies on public investment in the specific infrastructures (like transit and separated bike routes), but it also requires making urban planning choices about density and mixed use that make these infrastructure investments economically feasible.
European cities (like Amsterdam, and even Oulu, Finland – videos by Not Just Bikes are worth a look if interested) show what life can look like when people have real transportation choices, and when urban planning decisions take into account the benefits of mixed use and transportation choice.
One of the more insightful and inspirational videos I’ve seen recently looks at initiatives in Emeryville CA, a small Bay Area city near Oakland.
Bingo! While I’ve been formulating an answer to the “you’ll take my ICE car from my cold, dead, hands crowd . . . .” you did it more eloquently.
The one thing to never underestimate in the US, is the average American’s disdain for public transportation, as something to be avoided at all costs. Hell, I’m guilty of that attitude myself, having dredged up my grade school Schwinn and taught myself to bicycle commute (a habit that remains with me to this day) all because I absolutely HATED using the Erie, PA bus system. At the tender age of 19, 52 years ago.
No ‘Murican is going to ride the bus if he can help to. Mainly because of all the other people who are riding the bus (yeah, I know, you’re not supposed to say that part).
Take up arms, band together with the sizable population of people who overnight had their livelihoods taken away and/or had their assets rendered valueless, and overthrow that truly fascist out of control government.
What did you want me to say? Suck it up and go for a stroll through the meadow with a smile because it’s progress and for our own good?
How will I stuff 6 bags of groceries into a back pack? Oh…..EVERYTHING will now be delivered to my front porch. So, my personal vehicle will be replaced by bots/drones from Amazon who will obviously control everything. I’m so happy to be 80 years old.
Accepting the scenario presented, I would have no problem giving up a personal vehicle.
As long I can accomplish the things I want to with a minimum of fuss, why not?
I lived in Germany without a car, and I was fine. I also rarely left my little city. I did not see the other countries I wanted to explore. I didn’t experience many things because to travel without a car required lots of money, lots of time and lots of scheduling. I couldn’t be spontaneous. I couldn’t act on whims. I couldn’t do what I wanted, when I wanted, or where I wanted without a whole lot of cooperation and a whole lot of hassle. I lived in a 650 year old city that still had pre-Columbian building downtown. A small little human scaled city. I could get whatever I needed in that little city. I could do it.
City folks tell you about trips they take overseas or across country. Yet they don’t go where they cannot go when there is no way to get there. Instead, they live in a system and don’t go outside that system unless they take the time to arrange everything first. I was quite surprised to learn that many Manhattanites don’t even cross the Hudson and never cross the East River. They live in a very little world. They could if they wanted, but they usually don’t.
I took mass transit in Chicago. It was pretty nice. I needed to get to North Michigan Avenue, and I could after stopping first in Calumet, then Hazel Crest, then Harvey, then Stony Island, the Ivanhoe, then Roseland, then 20 other stops. Then I would hoof it through the Chicago Walkway six months out of the year because of the Arctic winters and rainy days. I did this for years instead of driving a car and paying $25 to park under Millennium Park, then hoofing it through the Chicago Walkway.
I could live that way because I was in a densely populated area. Most of the US is not. Not very long ago Henry Ford wanted desperately to help farmers get out of their rural world, their poverty, their dependency and their colloquialisms. The personal automobile launched the 20th century. It connected America. It still connects America. I don’t want to return to pre-20th century mentality, life and don’t want to experience 21st century colloquialisms.
So I know what it is like to be an adult without a car and live that way for more than a year. What did I miss? My freaking freedom. There is no utopia worth losing your freedom over.
The vast majority of Americans do not have a passport. Most have never been outside of the country. A significant quantity have never been outside of their own state.
Huge numbers of Europeans travel outside of their own country, some by car, and even more by train or plane. You were a student without money, so of course you weren’t traveling. You likely therefore didn’t have gas money either to drive to France or Italy or wherever if you had owned a car. Your village (?) Or was it Heidelberg? likely had a train station with multiple departures daily, multiple bus stations with more of the same, as well as taxis and rental car options and possibly even an airport not “significantly” farther away than what many Americans experience in their own lives. At least the village of 5,000 people where I lived in Germany had all of the above options. Don’t make the mistake of conflating your particular situation as an exchange student with that of people who live, work, earn money and enjoy plenty of freedoms in most of Europe.
Why do you continue to talk down to us?
Can we have our own opinion?
What was the point of the question if we all had to agree with you?
You don’t have to agree with me (my comment anyway, I didn’t write the post), but did I say something incorrect?
An opinion is an opinion and right or wrong, fine. Presenting things you say you experienced as fact that simply are not facts are not right.
“I didn’t experience many things because to travel without a car required lots of money, lots of time and lots of scheduling”
Traveling WITH a car requires the same things, especially the money part, i.e purchase, depreciation, maintenance, parking, gasoline etc.
“So I know what it is like to be an adult without a car and live that way for more than a year. What did I miss? My freaking freedom.”
Many would argue that being financially and legally tethered to a personal car, its expenses and needs are exactly the opposite of freedom. But I also explained to you how every little village in Germany (the place you cited) has numerous (far more than an equivalent place in the US) options to get somewhere, freely, without a car. Maybe you should have inquired about those options but I can see how you might not be aware of them existing, i.e. you don’t know about what you don’t know. Thus my explanation for others to realize that your experience as you presented it is not necessarily what anyone’s experience would have to be in the same situation.
Was I wrong? If you were in the same financial situation as you actually were in but somehow someone gave you a car for free, would you have been able to afford the gasoline, insurance, parking, and upkeep in order to travel far and wide every weekend or whatever? I doubt it.
Yes. You are wrong.
I know that you are wrong.
I have proof, evidence and knowledge that you are wrong.
Deal with it.
LOL, wut?
I live in a small Austrian village outside Vienna. Yes, we have a railway station and a Postbus, both of which can get me to Vienna relatively easily and quickly. Public transport is good here in so far linear transport is concerned with. When however you need to travel “off grid” things are not much better than any rural US town. I consider myself to be in good shape for my age but am not keen on doing my weekly shopping using my bicycle (to the extent possible. I am not going to ride half an hour carrying 75 lb on my saddle, sorry). We do get snow in the winter which makes such sorties impractical or dangerous even. If I want to visit my friends this is the more so. So a car is a must. The problem with our policy makers is that a lot of them live in the cities where it is possible to get around without a car – they however cannot grasp more than a third of the population does not have this luxury.
Opinions are a little like trucks, in that they’re not all rated to carry the same payload.
Very thought-provoking (and thoughtful) CC, thank you 0192700 Salt!
Vanilla Dude’s comments are 100% correct. He’s personally experienced life in Germany (Germany is European–but not all Europe is Germany, BTW), and in Chicago, and apparently in America at large.
The vast majority of non-rural Europeans live in close quarters, as in apartments or residences with small yards. This is even truer of non-rural Asians. And yet, even the Asians want their own cars!!!
Vanilla dude is spot on. Without dense population, mass transit does not work. It stinks. And even with dense population, it can leave big holes, or take hours between waiting for one bus and waiting and changing to another.
Even where it CAN work well, like Europe, mass trans is, and must be subsidized; otherwise it is lousy, doesn’t work well enough, and doesn’t get used. NYC subways would stop if they depended just on fares. The taxpayers of NY State and NY City do their part.
Europeans and Asians live in close quarter because they are limited by geography and/or history (borders), and or resources. Their motor fuel is highly taxed as a result, and it reinforces the small car/drive less behaviors of the old world.
America evolved differently. Plentiful oil and abundance and wide open spaces. Canada is America lite, with a more intrusive government moderating people’s wants by taxing them more.
US government and corporate policies encouraged suburban sprawl. It was all good–for housing builders, for loan officers, and of course automakers and car dealers.
With wheels, life in America would become rather dull, at best, or rather complicated and difficult, at worst. The latter is more likely.
And guess what? Absent a significant external shock, one of a negative nature, American sprawl is not going to change.
The “European experience” so many influential Americans admire is N/A here in the US. NOT APPLICABLE.
I think 01927000 SALT’S question is prescient, because that is where a lot of the elites want us go.
There is no strong lobby for motorists or even drivers. The National Motorists Association is excellent, but small. Since most (but perhaps not all) people here like cars and driving, I’d encourage you to join it.
The mis-named “Build Back Better” bill includes provisions for the study of taxing people per mile driven (a very intrusive, big-brother scheme), allocates funds for the purchase of traffic speeding and red-light cameras (a process several judges have had thrown it, as it is for revenue generation, to the point of shortening yellow lights and causing accidents), and devices for detection of “impaired drivers”.
These are all anti-car measures. Vision Zero is anti-car.
I used be among those who believed that American are innately wasteful and don’t have much self control, and I still think there is some truth in that. Having lived in or worked in southern Europe, the mid-east, Iceland, Mexico, and even Canada, and been a tourist in most countries in Western Europe, I empathize with those who wonder why we have so many full-size pick ups littering our roads with just the driver. I like cars, and they block my view…
But it’s a free country, and I’ve come to terms with it. What I cannot come to terms with is when, living here near the Arctic Circle, my small suburban city and the next one over, take 35-40mph 4 lane road and make them 2-lane roads with bicycle paths that are rarely used during the 5 decent weather months, let alone the winter. The the massive outcry against this foolishness needed to end it is not forthcoming (a major outcry is not enough, not even in the metro Motor City..)
With that experience, and what I see and hear in the news, I’ve come to realize that if Americans all drove small cars and trucks, like Europeans and Asians, for the past 50 years (since the party ended in 1973, though we had cheap fuel from 1985 thru 2008 again) and lived in smaller homes, it would not be enough to forestall the measures that are being pushed aggressively today and meant to make it onerous to have a car today and take it away tomorrow, all in the name of “green” and “save the planet”.
Excellent topic 12700Salt. And to reply, if I don’t have access to gasoline, the question is moot. If I have a place to park it, I will keep my old car, sit in it, and reminisce, lol.
Gasoline needs crude oil AND refineries to produce it. Refineries need government permission to operate, and large companies to operate them.
So that is where the action is motor fuel, first availability, then cost. The current administration is doing a fine job of crimping availability and driving up cost, leading us to a future of “zero emissions”.
..withOUT wheels, life in America would become rather dull, at best, or very difficult, at worse..
Thank you.
I lived it. Sorry it fell short of the utopia being sold. It was still very good, but it took centuries and generations to make it turn out as it did. Nothing in Europe was “turn-key”, except what was tried in the USSR and some other Eastern European cities, due to WWII destruction. We know how that failed.
Planner always assume that they will be the ones in control. They always assume they know more than the people they try to control. I don’t recall when that ever worked out the way it was planned.
Salt Lake City was supposed to be utopia. New Harmony Indiana, Oneida New York, Nauvoo Illinois, Pullman in Chicago, Levittown, Pruitt-Iago, the list is endless. I’ve been to all those places. None of them worked out.
That doesn’t mean to stop trying. It just means to realize the power of personal freedom and personal freedom of movement.
Indeed. It seems to me, writing from Europe, you have a set who wishes to “Europeanize” the US even though some of the things they want to implement do not even work HERE (zero emissions in 2030? Sure, not without nuclear energy which many Greens fought tooth and nail for the last 40 years. Social security/single payer health care? Great idea as long as you do not have masses of free-loaders or destroy your middle-class through C____D measures-induced inflation, etc. etc.). You have mid-term elections this year, vote wisely.
Vanilla Dude writes: “I took mass transit in Chicago. It was pretty nice. I needed to get to North Michigan Avenue, and I could after stopping first in Calumet, then Hazel Crest, then Harvey, then Stony Island, the Ivanhoe, then Roseland, then 20 other stops. Then I would hoof it through the Chicago Walkway six months out of the year because of the Arctic winters and rainy days. I did this for years instead of driving a car and paying $25 to park under Millennium Park, then hoofing it through the Chicago Walkway…:
Before the Pandemic, and for decades before, I lived in Chicago and that is what I did – when I moved to Chicago in 1978 I sold my Duster and have not had a driver’s license since then. It was sweet, between the CTA (Chicago Transit Authority) and Metra suburban trains, one could get around quite nicely – I’d even take the commuter trains over to the beaches at the Indiana Dunes State Park…
Unfortunately, Chicago’s once – fine and efficient public transportation system is now riddled with crime, many filthy vagrants now make the “L” cars their “homes”, and even during normal weekday commuting hours one encounters much scary stuff…
My formerly pleasant and quick 35 minute “L” Purple Line Express work commute from my Evanston home to Ravenswood (on Chicago’s North Side) became so “dodgy” that I sought a new job close to home – now my “commute” is a ten – minute walk…
Until “the powers that be” clean up the dire crime/safety situation on Chicago public transit, I will *totally* eschew that system. The rare times I have to go down to Chicago I now take an Uber… and I don’t go south of Wrigley Field, at that.
And I don’t hear many good things about NYC’s subways, or public transport in San Francisco, Seattle, etc….
Where I live in Vancouver, British Columbia, there is little need for a car. I can walk pretty much anywhere I need, like the produce market, bakery, banks, all super convenient. There is a bus stop two minutes from my home and train station ten.
In my parking garage, there always sit three Modo Car Co-op cars. The cost of using Modo is around $7.00 per hour, including the fuel and insurance, so it is dirt cheap.
As soon as my kids were age twelve we gave them a bus pass and told them to go see the Lower Mainland. They did just that, because they were Free Range Kids. Two are exploring internationally and one is still in university. I have digressed, but the point here is none of my kids can drive. They have absolutely no interest in it.
The pandemic means I work from home and I refuse to go out to work again. My Golf sits in the garage four or five days a week. If I were not self-employed, I wouldn’t even bother with a car.
I spent C$8000 in 2021 to have the convenience of a car. That is 1442 hours in a car share. A monthly transit pass is $100.25, or just about one tank of gas.
It would be very easy for me to ditch my car, but since it has only 43,000 km on it after four years, I’ll drive the wheels off of it.
It’s not like we currently generate enough electricity, to mass adopt personal transportation
to be electric powered exclusively.
So, yes, personal transportation will need to be rationed.
Sure we do have plenty. The vast majority of vehicles are driven less than 40 miles a day, that’s under one hour of level 2 garage charging at night, or ten minutes on a good manufacturer developed and installed level 3 public charger, or FAR LESS than the amount of energy I let my Air Conditioner use in my house every summer day (and which is off at night, thus freeing the capacity anyway were it so close to full). And that’s before I transition all daytime use to solar panels. Don’t believe everything you read by EV contrarians.
Factor in the ultimate (and immediate with current fed admin) goal of ending fossil, nuclear and hydro energy and get back to us.
That’s all happening tomorrow by noon just like everyone will be issued an EV tomorrow at noon as well? I missed that memo, apparently.
Was there a gas station on every corner when Herr Benz rolled his first car out of the barn? No. There was horseshit everywhere, just like here…
Until sometime in 1915 (in America, at least) you went to the corner drugstore to get a couple of gallons of gas for your Model T. Or Chevrolet 490.
I love how the anti-EV crowd always comes up with the rationalization that, since our 11 year old EV charging infrastructure doesn’t match our 107 year old ICE fueling infrastructure, then obviously EV’s cannot work.
I still can’t fill up in my own garage or driveway with gasoline…they’ve had over 100 years to work the bugs out of that system. The Man has been keeping us down! Revolt!
“The man has been holding us down!
Revolt!”
What did I do?
Oh, only one ‘N’.
Nevermind.
Such a cute reply, Jim–without actually replying. No nuclear, no fossil, no hydro. Where, then, does electricity come from, Jim?
My reply was cute? Ok…
I was addressing the stated claim that the current administration was planning to end all of that immediately (immediate being the comment poster’s claim, not mine.) Is that your position as well, that it is all being shut down by this weekend? Or is a gradual longer term phaseout a better way of framing things?
Nuclear – Did I miss the news where the previous administration was expanding Nuclear? Or the Bushes? Bill Gates is the guy actually pushing for more mini-nuclear tech and he’s one of the boogeymen, right? Shall we place it outside of your city?
Does the oil and gas industry sit on over 9,000 approved drilling leases they haven’t even started to do anything with? You should probably send questions as to why those aren’t being used to that industry instead of blaming the current admin, why aren’t they drilling those instead of having the admin asking other countries to supply more? Instead you believe the admin is trying to stop all drilling here right now?
Coal? Yeah I’ll give you coal, it’s filthy, I’d happily stop coal, there are multiple better options.
Hydro works quite well in Canada. Canada happily sells us energy. Which river near your home would you like to see dammed up though?
Solar? Many people in many parts of the country use it quite efficiently. Doesn’t work everywhere, can though be implemented in far more places than it currently is.
Wind? See Solar above. Drive through Wyoming sometime, it’s fascinating how one of the biggest oil and coal states seems to have embraced wind in a big way. It’s frickin’ everywhere up there.
And battery storage for long-term energy buffering?
I’m no expert on ANY of this crap, but I know a red herring when I see one and I don’t just take what Tucker Carlson spews out there and take it as gospel. Why is CC seemingly some people’s only place where they can learn about this stuff? Do you seriously believe A) the absurd premise of this post to begin with and B) the more absurd notion that the current administration actually desires to stop all Hydro, all Nuclear, and all Fossil Fuel related energy generation immediately?
A friend texted me this morning and asked what is up with (and I quote) “The Right Wing Fever Dream QOTD” on CC today. That pretty much describes it I’d say.
A friend texted me this morning and asked what is up with (and I quote) “The Right Wing Fever Dream QOTD” on CC today. That pretty much describes it I’d say.
I was on the fence about running this. I certainly wouldn’t have written something like this. The author is very young, just a few years out of high school. I decided that maybe he’ll learn something from the experience.
It’s all very predictable; Pavlovian, actually. My apologies.
I was wondering why this work was posted. It seemed a bit away from the prevailing vibe of the place. But it has made for an interesting read through the comments, so there is that.
The current CEO of Toyota makes a similar point.
We didn’t have our auto infrastructure when the Model T was unleashed. So I expect that if electric vehicles become more viable, there will be infrastructure built to support it.
Humans are pretty amazing. When there is an incentive to change, or do something, humans are very good at adapting. The horse analogy is apt: in 1910, few people had cars. There was a huge infrastructure for horses, stables, feed stores, vets, harnesses, the list is long. Getting gasoline was about as inconvenient as DC fast charging today.
In a scant twenty years the economy created a huge infrastructure for the automobile. Service stations sprang up, roads were improved and we left the horse largely behind.
There are many ways to increase power supply. Where I live, 98% of our power comes from hydro. The water behind the dam is potential energy, in effect a battery. Wind and solar can allow the water to stay behind the dam.
In Canada, our peak load is in the winter, while in the USA it is in the summer. Consequently, our exports are at a time when we have plenty of excess power. Then there is load shifting, but that is another topic.
We are at 1910 now
Please explain how this system of autonomous vehicle / public transportation might work for the wheat/flax farmer family in Wilton, North Dakota? The teacher in the Shelby, Montana schools who commutes from Cut Bank? The missileer at assigned to Warren or Malmstrom Air Force bases? The casino dealer in Mesquite, Nevada?
I’m not defending the original post or author but edge cases like you describe that number at a guess far less than .01 percent of the overall population would seem to be able to be accommodated with some sort of exemption, in the realm of if a few random people couldn’t do it, then does that really mean it doesn’t work for anywhere else? But either way I’m not seeing how a 25 mile drive from Shelby to Cut Bank would be difficult to do? I’d guess right now you can get an Uber to do it. There are probably students that live in Cut Bank that commute via school bus (public transportation?) to Shelby for school.
You can’t just look at it as a wholesale switch from today to tomorrow with zero ramp up period. Twenty years ago EVs were not a thing. Ten years ago the Model S was introduced, a car (albeit expensive) with power, range, and even looks. Six years later that was all offered at less than half the price from the same manufacturer with the Model 3. Last week GM ludicrously started to distribute the Hummer EV, of which there are apparently over 65,000 already sold. Now there are even EVs in Wyoming. I.e. it didn’t happen overnight but gradually and increasingly.
“Last week GM ludicrously started to distribute the Hummer EV, of which there are apparently over 65,000 already sold.”
Mind blowing, it’s a six figure car.
I meant 65,000 preorders, not actual finalized sales, didn’t mean to overstate things. But it is far from inconceivable and there appears to be fairly vast interest as long as it doesn’t become the next Olds diesel…
Jim – I know you know Wyoming. This is from a March 30 story in the “Cowboy State Daily”:
“According to WYDOT’s Zero Emission Vehicle Strategy, there are 456 registered electric cars and light trucks in Wyoming”
and:
“While Tesla charging stations can be found around every 100 miles in Wyoming, there are only two non-Tesla charging stations in the state, one in Cheyenne and another in Jackson.”
There are many more though that travel into and through your state. It’s embarrassing that the one EV maker that started from scratch was able to put together a wholly owned network of chargers that work far better than any commercial charger even in your sparsely populated state with vast driving distances while every legacy automaker that touts themselves as far more “experienced” is planning to wait to suck on the government’s teat for public chargers or subject their clients to higher expenses for charge energy through either those same public chargers or when Tesla makes theirs available to others (likely at a higher rate than Tesla owners, I mean why not?). Clearly installing chargers is not that difficult, Tesla did it well before selling even a fraction of their volume today.
Hi Jim: “suck on the government’s teat for public chargers”
Ha! We certainly agree on a distaste for that!
Standard Oil and their competitors did the dirty work of making their form of “charging” universally available. Musk, a remarkable and admirable capitalist, did something that Ford and others never had to do. The electric charging would be more palatable to me if Tesla, other manufacturers or electricity suppliers build and paid for a network as convenient as what we have now for gasoline – but not the federal government (which may be a current policy objective).
Eh, let the government do it, I guess, it’s not like they haven’t been propping up oil companies with money via tax credits, sweetheart drilling leases, taxpayer money for foreign wars along with young American bodies for decades, maybe it should be someone else’s turn to benefit from that largesse. But the result will cost the consumer more than it has to rather than if it’s from a manufacturer looking to break even on that part to sell more of their own vehicles.
By the way there are about 233,000 households in Wyoming so that’s a penetration rate of 0.2% currently (2 out of every 1,000) . Actually better than I imagined for Wyoming!
Then again, the current faculty count at the University of Wyoming numbers 700, so there’s easily another potential 244 adopters to add to the 456 current registered vehicles… 🙂
In those parts of our country, there were still many horses used during the first half of the 20th century. Horses made sense before the JEEP regarding military needs right up to WWII. I also recall the extra needs the Dakotas and Nevada had regarding the railroad development. We look upon those days as the days of Robber Barons due to how the deals with governments went down between the railroad builders and the population. The State Bank of North Dakota was a solution still in place in regards to providing sparse populations with services.
For many years, it was believed that the airplane would do more regarding transportation needs for sparse areas of the US. This is still the case in Alaska. What happened in the lower 48 was a different solution so far.
We’re not the Netherlands. What works there will need to be amended to work here. How that happens is based on will, money and technologies, right?
You hit a good point there, mentioning horses. Most people live where they may not legally or practically own or keep horses, and provisions don’t exist for horse-based transport. Most people are just fine with that; most people never give the matter a thought. Floating anything like this idea in 1911 would’ve spurred reactions similar to some we see here: impossible, impractical, that’ll never happen, I hope I’m dead and buried, just you try it; I’ll shoot you, etc.
That scenario never happened, even in 1911. So we don’t know if there would have been reactions like that. The closest would be when governments confiscated horses from their owners due to war. People were pretty excited about the automobile. The first chance farmers had to buy a Model T – they did. Then they would still use the horses where the Model T couldn’t get at.
Everyone witnessed cruelty towards horses working hard daily. Those first commuter cars were horse drawn. The status at the time was that horses deserved a better life so as soon as they could be replaced, they were.
In cities, Model Ts made popular electric cars obsolete.
I don’t care what some former bartender who now has 2 luxury apartments and a $100k Tesla on a $180k salary, I’m keeping my cars. If these wealthy politicians really believed their own rhetoric, cars would be outlawed now, not in 10 years. This current bunch is only interested in their own power and our collective misery.
Same here, and I will never EVER own an electric car. Seeing the kind of people most loudly and forcefully promoting them is reason enough in my book for complete rejection of the idea without even getting into specifics.
Mass transit is fine if you want to live in a city. I don’t and won’t. If the self-styled “progressives” want to start a revolution, taking away peoples’ cars is a good way to start one.
It’s an intriguing observation, made more relevant by the concern over climate change and the finite nature of fossil fuel.
Frankly, I suspect the change opined by the author is coming (even to the great, sparsely populated expanses of the rural US), but it won’t be overnight. More likely is it will be far into the future, at least a couple generations, long after Jim and the rest of us have passed on.
It’s already illegal in California to use 2 stroke off-road vehicles in many places, even where non-emissions-compliant off highway vehicles are allowed. Not a perfect analogy but 40 years ago that might have seemed unthinkable. As for autonomous personal or mass transit, I think we in the US haven’t shown much ability to implement complex infrastructure recently. I live in a dense university town 40 miles from Silicon Valley and I barely have cellular signal at my house from one of the major carriers. Our busses (and it’s just busses, no light rail let alone train) are pretty much used by students, elderly and very low income workers. Not to divert into current events, but the train evacuations from Ukraine continuously remind me that we couldn’t do that here in the US except maybe to transport people between NYC and DC. Anyway, I suspect I will own an EV before too long, but not sure fully autonomous or outlawing personal vehicles will happen in the remaining 20-35 years of my life.
The price of fuel and the presence of ethanol are forcing the issue, whether we like it or not. Allowing any ICE engine to sit with ethanol-laced fuel in it (the only kind available in CA, outside of little cans of fuel at $20 to $25 per gallon) means that you had better know how to clean out and repair a fuel system. I am not wild about the “loss of transportation freedom”, but there it is, as a practical matter, getting tighter every day. EVs are a limited alternative transportation hangout, because the price of charging an EV, over time, will likely rise in price in lockstep with ICE fuel prices, more or less. A cost that will be borne by the transportation consumer, be it through direct costs of recharging, or indirectly through Uber pricing. There is no free lunch here.
I am not sure I would want to permanently own an EV. Even modern ICE cars seem to have a built-in lifespan in them, where everything looks like it will fall to unrepairable pieces in 10 years or 150k miles, whichever comes first. The old-school tinkering and messing with automotive mechanicals is, indeed, old school. The issue on modern cars is like that of modern TVs or phones. They appear to be designed to be used through their stale date, and then recycled. They are capable, comfortable, and safe. But they are largely unserviceable, outside of warranty claims addressed by the manufacturer and dealer service department. My observations. You can frame it as government edicts, but the automotive landscape is getting there anyway, through evolution of the form. In the end, the wealthy will have free rein, while many will be priced out of easy mobility. Treat it as a politically loaded comment from me, but I see it as just the way of things, like it or not. And probably a situation that not much can be done about, over time.
Erm…no. The average age of a car on American roads in 1979 was 5.7 years, and that was up from 5.1 years in 1969. The 2013 figure was 11.4 years, that is just about double the 1979 figure. It hit 11.7 years in 2017, and the 2021 figure is 12.1 years. That’s the average age.
I would attempt to argue (perhaps ineffectively), that part of the high average age of the cars on the road today is the relative repairability of the older part of the current fleet. Over time, that will evolve. For now, knowledge of OBD-II codes and having a nearby NAPA is enough.
Look at how little it takes for insurers to “total” a car these days. They don’t want to deal with complications down the road, so fender benders can sometimes be enough to “total” a fairly new car. Disposability in action.
A source for my claim is my honest and professional mechanic, who I employ to keep the extended family’s DDs on the road. He recommends not keeping the current new cars beyond 100k to 125k miles, lest they turn into “money pits”. 50k miles for complex BMWs and M-Bs. (Older cars always become “money pits”, sooner or later, but the ability to repair it oneself via NAPA or junkyarding is withering away). He says this, despite making all of his money off of the “money pits” and not the oil and brake pad changes, which are just about all that appears to be called for, most of the time, on the newer cars. He tells me the newest cars are the best anyone has ever seen, but the electronic complexity can be a nightmare to diagnose and repair as they grow older. They will grow older and become “money pits”, sooner or later, but not in my garage. Money pits in the way that they will carry on until they don’t, and will simply die without anyone having much of an idea how to resuscitate them, or finding out the needed electronic gizmos are either very expensive, unobtainable, or both (as home appliances often break down today). I am mentally moving over to “renting” my DDs, whether or not my name is on the title. Of course, at my age (61), one or two more DDs (or maybe fewer) should do it for the rest of my driving life.
Allowing any ICE engine to sit with ethanol-laced fuel in it (the only kind available in CA, outside of little cans of fuel at $20 to $25 per gallon) means that you had better know how to clean out and repair a fuel system.
I’ve been using ethanol-laced fuel in my ’66 Ford for decades, and it often sits for months without being used. Always starts right up, and I’ve had zero fuel system issues. Haven’t touched the carb since I bought it in ’87!
And a disagree with your comment about cars falling apart at 10 years/150k miles. We always keep our DDs for at least 15 years, with great results. My 2005 xB hasn’t required anything except a water pump, brake pads, filters and oil. And I intend to keep it indefinitely.
The whole origin of CC is due to all the old cars in Eugene still in use. Tell that to all the 20-40 year old Corollas, Camrys, Civics, etc…
I’ve profiled at least one owner who bought his Corolla new in 1987 and still drives it. There’s others. And it’s not just Toyotas.
Same, Chicagoland has used E10 since I’ve been driving, and not once on two cars have I replaced a fuel system component or seen any degradation(I’ve looked) I don’t like Ethanol blends much but that boogeyman is kind of overblown.
In terms of running and driving 10 years or 150k miles is a breeze for most cars. The only thing I’ll say is somewhat accurate to that is at that age and mileage is they tend to show their age, but that’s got a lot more to do with neglect from owners than built in obsolescence.
My mechanic’s point is that the increased complexity and interconnectedness of the electronics makes it much harder to diagnose and repair cars built in the last few years. The complexity of chips and electronic circuits can create cascading and confusing issues, and the intermittent problems are the most difficult of all to deal with. He is telling me he is seeing it now in higher-mileage, newer, high-end German cars. He suspects the dilemma will migrate to much of the rest of the fleet as the cheaper, more complex newer cars get more miles on them. Professional mechanics get to see patterns, and learn about certain recurring problems on certain cars, that those of us with one or two data points don’t necessarily see. This is all speculation about what will happen some years down the road, when currently built cars are older. Some cars may see issues come on more quickly, and other examples might never see any problems. The less complicated and interconnected fifteen year old cars of today aren’t quite the same (just look at all the sensors and tell-tales required for such things as lane departure or braking assist in the latest cars, even the cheaper ones, which are obviously the somewhat rudimentary precursors to self-driving capabilities). But until the time comes and we see how it goes, it is all speculation. But I do respect my mechanic, who seems to have a knack for correctly identifying issues immediately, simply by observation and prior experience.
As to the ethanol, I wish I didn’t have issues. I have learned how to clean out all sorts of small engines (weed whacker, lawn tractor, generator, large auger, lawn mowers), because if they sit more than a couple of months, they won’t run well, and sometimes not at all. I have found varnish and scum in the fuel circuits, and etching and partial dissolving of gaskets, hoses, and seals (not the metal parts, from what I have seen). I have migrated to draining the ethanol fuel and running a bit of non-ethanol in the tractor and generator (which chew through fuel), and biting the bullet and using the expensive non-ethanol in my lawn mowers, weed whacker, and the auger. Problems solved, so far (knock wood). They can sit over the winter and not be fussy in the spring. I didn’t really buy into the ethanol problems issue, until I dealt with it myself. My experience may be a bit of an outlier, as California uses “special” fuel blends unique to the state. Perhaps that exaggerates the problem for me.
That said, my very old Jeep can sit for months at a time with old ethanol-mix fuel in it, and it always starts first time, every time, like it just can’t wait to get going. There may be something about the robust cast-metal simplicity of the much older vehicles that simply defies the issues that show up in newer machines. The other outlier is the Honda engine on the auger, which starts somewhat easily, even when it doesn’t run very vigorously on old fuel. It seems to be a cut above the rest of the small engines.
He is telling me he is seeing it now in higher-mileage, newer, high-end German cars
This has been the case with those for 30 years though, someone once said German engineering went with the Berlin Wall and I tend to agree with that sentiment.
Networked electronics actually exist to make diagnosis less time consuming, IF you have the software to do it. You can plug into the OBD II port in a car and not just diagnose engine faults but test the operation of the door locks, windows, mirrors and just about everything else networked in the body. That saves a lot of time otherwise spent tracing wiring diagrams and probing circuits. It was actually worse 30 years ago on cars that were particularly electronic tech laden, everything (ABS, cruise control, engine management, etc) was on separate modules with separate interfaces with miles of wiring communicating with redundant sensors, networking just consolidated all of that.
Not to say there aren’t issues that can crop up, but it’s like many things a case to case basis. Not all sensors are destined to fail, modules don’t necessarily stop working, wiring is pretty much static unless physically damaged or the insulation is degradable(one of the big faults of some of those German cars), it really depends on the car, there are and always have been some cars that for one reason or another hold up forever, and others that are problematic from day one, and others that hit a degradation point after the warranty expires. Mechanics know that pattern well, they know the money makers.
I love the idea of rock simple mechanical durability, but it’s the idea. I have ABS brakes on my Cougar for example, I don’t really care for ABS, I don’t like that it has all these pesky electronics and sensors that might go wrong, and I have waiting in the wings a full set of rust free brake lines and proportioning valve from a parted out non-ABS Tbird Sport model to replace the crusty ones on the car. Yet the rusty lines are what I feel the actual inevitable need to replace, same basic metal tubes found on cars made 70 years before it, not actually the complex electronic 27 year old ABS system is all original down to the wheel speed sensors and works like new, the ticking clock is with the low tech, not the high tech.
For me I think the most important part to longevity in cars is part interchangeability, be it by an extensive year range or by platform sharing. You’ll be able to get anything you need to keep a 2007 Camry roadworthy 30 years from now. It’s the reason a $20,000 Corolla is a smarter buy than 10 year old AMG Mercedes at the bottom of its depreciation curve for the same money, despite the Benz being so much more car.
You have good luck with cars. There are many factors–one very important one is that you know a great deal about them and thus instinctively do not do dumb things.
Your Ford truck seems very robust, ethanol is not always kind to fuel systems.
Eugene strikes me as pretty gentle environment for cars. I think that has a lot to do with it–and I think it’s great! Greece is pretty benign also–until the government incentivized the removal of non-catalyst cars in the 1990s, it seemed that most cars sold there since 1965 were still on the road. Apparently the hot summer sun, dust, and occasional dirt road were not as tough on cars as metro NYC, humid Carolina, or the Motor City.
Bring those 20-40 year old Toyotas to Michigan, use them as daily drivers, and we will see how many make it to be 22-42 year old cars, between the harsh winters, the salt, and the terrible pavement.
I think 1995 to 2015 was the sweet spot for longevity–but I could be wrong, time will tell. Maybe all those turbos, 8,9,10-speed autos, CVTs, and my nemisis, stop start, plus all the infotainment, will prove as reliable as a 2000 Accord, or a 2012 Malibu or Camry. Time will tell.
Getting back to the original question, I’d probably go for option 1, and keep my 1963 VW in the garage. Then I could give it a happy smile occasionally before taking the bus to work.
I’m not scared of a carless society, because whatever replaces it would actually be workable. People will still be able to travel, shop, get to work just like they do in Europe and other places. And just like in Europe people who NEED personal transport will have access to it, much like firearms are managed in civilized countries, but I digress.
Being a car guy is a part of my identity, but it’s not my entire identity so I could live quite happily without cars, so long as I could work, eat and have a few laughs.
Good point about the garaged 1963 VW. Likewise, there are those who will have an operational Model T in their garage, as well. But do they continue to use their Beetle or Tin Lizzie as a daily-driver? Hardly.
Quite simply, time marches on.
This has nothing to do with time marching on. This is about people who travel via private jets and mega yachts deciding that they’re tired of the middle-class having cars.
The presented scenario would be a nightmare where I live (Tucson, Arizona). This city and its immediate surrounding area have a population of about 1 million. (Up the road from us is Phoenix, plus its surrounding suburbs, where the population is about 4 million.) Most of Tucson developed in the heyday of cars, with a small downtown and suburb-like density. We have a bus system, with routes about half a mile apart. We have one trolley, a modern system connecting an area west of downtown with the University of Arizona, about a four-mile run. Not having a car is a significant challenge. Downtown is becoming denser, with more apartments being built, and the university has a growing number of expensive student-oriented semi-high-rise apartments nearby. But a lot of the city’s huge growth from the ’30s through the ’70s was detached houses on large lots. That kind of low density just doesn’t support huge investments in public transportation. Despite the pandemic, I’ve still been going to my workplace several times a week, because that’s where the pipe organ is, and that’s where the church services happen. That’s about a 14-mile round trip. What people can do in Vancouver, or parts of Chicago, or New York City, isn’t always feasible for a lot of us who live in car-based cities.
Thank you.
I didn’t even think about how new cities often do not even have mass transportation other than busses. I believe Phoenix is the largest US city to not have a subway? Can you imagine trying to use mass transportation during the summer day in Arizona? I experienced deadly cold in Chicago growing up and taking mass transportation, and experienced Tucson heat at 125 degrees. Wow.
Phoenix has light rail.
Phoenix light rail has very limited value. It has just one line and serves only Phoenix, Tempe and Mesa. It does not serve Scottsdale, Glendale, Peoria, Surprise, Chandler, Gilbert, Goodyear, etc. It is however an ideal venue for bums to sleep.
The bum issue is a societal issue that our society has elected not to address, although the final current cost is likely far higher than it would need to be otherwise, including obviously affecting our public transit and our public’s perception thereof. 100% healthy people (mentally and physically) generally do not choose to be a “bum”, no matter how comfy the fiberglass bench on a Phoenix light rail train may be.
Discussions with friends during the seventies about the fuel crisis and evolving EPA regulations had us believing that in the future we’d have far fewer choices in personal transportation, smaller, more basic, less luxurious vehicles, more restricted access to fuel, and that we’d be driving far less frequently and at far lower speeds in addition to needing to ride share or use public transportation as we had never needed to do in the past. So we got it backwards. My guess is that those who currently predict then end of personal transportation ownership also have it backwards. Time will tell, but I’m not going to worry about it.
A few years ago medical problems kept me from driving or riding my bike. I live in a fairly large city and have bus stops within a few blocks of my house so I was able to go to doctors appointments and grocery stores via bus. I had to time it such that there was a minimum number of homeless drug addicts on the bus. They use the bus, especially in colder weather, as a mobile warming hut. Most are well behaved but some are clearly insane.
I didn’t drive for about six months. The first day back driving I felt like I was released from prison.
These hypothetical scenarios would be politically impossible in the United States and, I suspect, in most other Western countries. A hundred years ago the internal combustion engine offered affordable, all-weather, personal vehicles. Getting people to give up their freedom to travel when they want and where they want is a nonstarter.
I can envision a time where AVs become safer than human-driven cars and there will be political pressure to keep human-driven cars off of dense city streets. But it will be limited to very small, congested areas and probably less than eight hours/day.
You are assuming that the West will maintain its democratic governance system. After the last couple of years, I am not so sure about that.
A few years ago my household didn´t have a car. We got by pretty well using rented cars. The biggest realisation was how well you could manage using cars more selectively. The unit cost went up but the total cost went way down. The one thing cars are good for is the multiple-stop trip e.g. granny to Ikea to supermarket to garden centre and home. The solution is not to do those kinds of tours. Life doesn´t end because you can´t visit four home furnishing shops in a morning. It goes on in other ways. I admit having a car is nice but it´s not essential for many more people than you´d think (and it is essential for some because by force or choice they live somewhere remote).
Autonomous vehicles already are here. I know people who are the “test dummies” for this, they ride around them all day and never touch the steering wheel.
https://techcrunch.com/2021/11/03/cruise-launches-driverless-robotaxi-service-for-employees-in-san-francisco/
Eventually, as this technology gets better the insurance companies will mandate it, because humans, being unpredictable, will be too risky to insure. This will happen whether or not we get to a fully electric future.
Maybe it will be a better world. It might be less fun, or it might be one has to get one’s fun a different way.
Things always change. The trick is to embrace the changes, rather than lament the losses. The forces at work making the changes are so much bigger and more powerful than little you and me, so, to a point, we all need to roll with them. That said, you can shape them a bit locally, and choose locales that suit your preferences. Most real estate sites quantify the local transportation options and availability in some basic way, so you can shop for public transportation options (or for the lack of them, if that suits you), in your shopping for a place to live.
Sorry, but this article was a complete waste of my time.
ravenuer wrote: “Sorry, but this article was a complete waste of my time.”
Thank you. A somewhat similar “scenario” took place in the communist East Bloc states, but even in their enforced “communal” societies, the desire to have one’s own personal vehicle eventually emerged. Thus the USSR, East Germany, and other of those misbegotten states finally allowed private vehicle ownership – although the supply was so limited that ten – year waits for their crummy products were the norm. Even communist China is now the leading vehicle producer – how many Chinese even were allowed to own cars just a few decades ago…???
Pretty much all that I’ve read about US public transport is that ridership numbers in most major urban places were declining even before the pandemic. Huge sums are spent for “pie – in – the – sky” light rail, etc., and the ridership is very light… buses are simply a cheaper option, not to mention much more flexible.
And public transport systems in Chicago, NYC, and elsewhere are now riddled with crime and squalor, making even formerly efficient systems “not real attractive”, shall we say…
A scenario like this is anathema to me, to bar even private ownership of a simple bicycle raises my hackles. I am happy that people can live like this by choice in dense urban areas they choose to live in. To have the state enforce this lack of choices raises my hackles. Whenever I hear Klaus Schwab say “you will own nothing and you will be happy”
Since I can’t get YouTube to embed, here’s the link to “that’s when I reach for my revolver” by Mission of Burma
https://youtu.be/PpTKcv-SmR0
I would have really liked to have seen a successful launch of that multi-billion dollar high speed rail in California. It would have been great to witness such a large scale accomplishment. It would have helped to have seen this multi-governmental project finished. Sadly, it is now moribund, right?
This points to a real dilemma. How can we build a future if we can’t even built a present? How can we expect future transportation when we can’t even finish one high speed rail line, through the heart of California, one of our nation’s most pro-government populace? I needed to have seen the Denver International Airport, thirty years ago, built with a determined speed and focus – but it wasn’t. It was a mess.
The mess continues, doesn’t it?
Perhaps government won’t be doing this. Perhaps it will be another organization of some kind or another. I don’t know. What I’ve seen so far regarding our transportation infrastructure is that as of right now – I can’t even buy a freaking chicken at Aldi because of the collapse of the Supply Chain. I can’t get some stuff because there are ships sitting off shore for the past few months.
How about handling that before we dream about a personal vehicle-less future?
How about building a high speed railroad through a Blue state?
How about trying to finish what we started before we start arguing over what the future portends?
Right now – I still can’t buy a damn chicken, regardless of how I got the damn store.
Beware of anyone who advocates you give up personal motion, freedom, and choice for any reason. Also keep in mind that you are born to be lions, not compliant gerbils. BTW, those who either advocate or oppose public transportation should try it for awhile. I did it once and hated it so much. Never again.
I want, for the rest of my life and the rest of everyone’s life, to be able to hop into my own personal car and take a spin in the county, just for the fresh air and the hell of it.
Long-term the solution is just to go to the very outskirts of society and establish a life there, and let the gerbils just eat each other.
“Beware of anyone who advocates you give up personal motion, freedom, and choice for any reason. ”
Absolutely – and not just your choices, but other people’s , too. I have no interest in private planes , skydiving, golf , foie gras or a plethora of other activities and products that have received negative press. But I’d be pretty upset if others tried to outlaw them.
With apologies to Martin Niemöller, this comes to mind when I read about people wanting to ban ICE and/or vintage cars. Our choice of transport or hobby might not be quite so high minded but the concept is the same:
First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist
Then they came for the Socialists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Socialist
Then they came for the trade unionists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a trade unionist
Then they came for the Jews
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Jew
Then they came for me
And there was no one left
To speak out for me
To answer the question directly:
I wouldn’t like it one damn bit.
I’ve been transportationally independent since I was 13, starting with a Honda Express scooter.
It’s all I know.
How infrastructure for alternatives gets developed will determine whether it would be a paradise or hell on earth for me.
Just speaking for myself, my mobility is my freedom and is worth whatever it costs.
I am frugal with many things but having a car, and a backup car, and air conditioning in the house are just “gotta haves” for me, and I’ve made it to 50 years old without regretting it for a minute.
If a car-less future is to come, old folks like me are gonna have the hardest time living in it.
One more comment: at my age (65) I’ve consciously chosen to live in a walkable and bikable town where I really don’t need a car. If I added an electric cargo bike to my stable I could certainly get by with perhaps renting an EV a few times a year. Or just pay for deliveries. But autonomous? I just don’t see it in my lifetime for year-round, all-weather use. As for ride share etc? Until I can get 50 miles off pavement in Death Valley or the Sierras or Moab or Anza Borrego, no thanks. Selfish or not, that’s why I want my own capable and equipped vehicles. Not to go to the library or grocery store. That’s what legs are for.
I’m not worried. The American economy revolves around private vehicle ownership. It touches everything from fast food to the US Military policy and everything in between. When privately owned vehicles are on the chopping block, so too is the future of this country. Lord Mr. Ford what have you done?
I’m 1000% certain everyone at CC would make the same choice as young Captain Kirk did.
This is the opening scene from Star Trek 2009 so just be patient.
I don’t know (spoiler alert), letting that C2 go flying off a cliff would not be something us Curbsiders would want to do.
Nice to see a 1965 Corvette still running though in 2244! 😉
Utopia is a state of mind, not a matter of fact…..
Also, folks would revert to a horse and buggy, and there would be a lot of horse shit on the streets and boots would become fashionable again….
But I guess that the EPA would write new rules about methane emissions for horses and demand all hay contain a certain amount of ethanol to control greenhouse gases……
Just what we need.
A bunch of drunk/blind horses walking around.
I would NEVER give up my personal vehicle. Not going to give up a great 2007 Hyundai Santa Fe; could retro convert it to electric but it’s awesome enough!
Try living in Blackburn, Lancashire or its surrounding valleys, YOU NEED A CAR THERE!
Car ownership SHOULD NEVER BE BANNED!