I’ve noticed a change here on the ground in Japan. Going back to the late aughts (2008-2012), I can remember seeing a BMW 3-series on almost every street corner here in Tokyo – they were ubiquitous. But I’ve seen less of them over the past several years. What I have been seeing though are lots more three-pointed stars – mostly A, B, C-class and SUVs. I decided to check the numbers to see if my observations were accurate or bogus. Fortunately the Japan Automotive Importers Association keeps loads of statistics – here’s what they say…
For model years 2007, 2009, and 2010, BMW was the No. 2 most popular foreign car brand in Japan (behind VW). However, starting in 2015, MB surpassed both BMW and VW to claim the top spot – and it has remained there ever since.
The latest figures for the first nine months of 2022 show MB number one with 16% of the imported market (36.2K), VW second with 10.2% (23.3K), and BMW third at 9.7% (22K). As an aside, the first US car brand is Jeep in eleventh place with 3.4% (7.6K).
Talking to my Japanese car buds, they say that all the European brands still carry a lot of cachet and status with consumers here, and currently MB is seen as “more prestigious” than BMW. The BMW “Driver’s car” image seems to have taken a hit also. I guess my unscientific observations were correct.
N-Box
Hijet
Just for info, the most popular car in Japan for Jan-Sep 2022 remains the Honda N-Box (kei) (151K), followed by the Daihatsu Hijet (kei) (131K), with the Toyota Yaris coming in third (130K). The N-Box has been the most popular car in Japan for the past several years. The Hijet can be had in both pickup and van styles, and is popular with regular consumers and as a commercial work vehicle.
More detailed stats are located here for those interested.
Not surprising, seeing the German Big Three seem to be incredibly strong in whatever market they enter in. A couple of additional questions: What is the overall import market penetration in Japan? What is the percentage of kei cars in the overall market?
The link toward the end has many answers. The market penetration for imports looks like currently 7 to 8 percent, although that includes Japanese marks importing cars built elsewhere.
That’s about the level of imports we had in the UK back in 1968.
I am surprised though that 68 Rovers have been imported in those two 9 month periods, given they went under 17 years ago.
If I recall correclty Kei cars hover at around 45-50% market share
Oh how times have changed…
Wait a few years….In Germany this September, the Tesla Model Y was the single best selling car, period. But the Japanese are entering the EV phase rather reluctantly.
I see that Tesla was not even listed here; they did sell 5,200 Model 3s in 2021, and are now launching a bigger effort with the Model Y. The likely reason they didn’t show up in the stats is that Tesla does not break out sales by country or region; it requires an analysis of registrations by third parties to generate those stats.
The Tesla Model Y is already the 8th best seller in the UK for Jan. to Sep.’22. They are the American car I see most frequently, practically every time I go shopping.
When I was in Japan in 1982, our(well-off) host drove a BMW, and I noticed quite a few VWs and Audis and Mercedes. This is not a recent phenomena. The Japanese’ attraction to quality engineering has been at work for some time.
Quality engineering, yes, execution, not so much. The Japanese exceed them all in in that regard…imo! Having suffered through ownership with both BMW and MB… never again! We’re all Japanese now.
Guesses, in response to the title question:
Kia? Hyundai? Daiwoo?
Dan, as you are likely aware, there is some difficult history between Japan and Korea. Consequently, neither bothered to market their cars in their respective markets, though Mitsubishi provided essential help to Hyundai’s early car-building efforts in the 1960’s and Mazda did the same with Kia.
Hyundai tried from 2001-09, but Japanese consumers weren’t interested. Recently, however, they have decided to give it another try with a focus on their new EVs.
https://www.just-auto.com/news/hyundai-re-entering-japan-with-new-strategy/
This confirms my field observations. I’ve been seeing the odd Inoniq here and there since the last six months. But not a single Kia.
Jim, I’m curious to know how the tax on imported vehicles is today vs. in the past.
I was in Japan in 1987 and we stayed with a family for a week. Having been a car guy since a young boy, I was interested in the cars that I would see there and was quite disappointed in the lack of American brands. So I asked around as well as asked the family we stayed with. What I was told (I never confirmed this) was that the Japanese government had extremely high tax in imported vehicles which made them more than double the cost of their domestic brands. They also told me that the government put in place other regs that made it quite difficult and more expensive for imports.
So I’d be curious if the German brands fight that now or if American brands still fight that. It seemed very unfair towards American brands to me and since then I’ve held firm that I feel the USA should place similar tax/regs on import brands to even the playing field.
I’m curious to know how the tax on imported vehicles is today vs. in the past.
Zero, since the 1970s! Which is not what most folks assume.
Meanwhile, all Japanese cars imported to the US face a 2.5% import tariff.
The reason imports haven’t done better in Japan is not that; it’s a cultural issue. Except for cars that are seen to have a high level of quality and engineering (German brands), the Japanese consumers have shunned imports, especially American ones because of very real quality shortcomings and the fact that they don’t really build the kind of cars the Japanese mainly buy. Kei cars? Yaris-sized cars?
Detroit tried for decades to make inroads, and Toyota made a huge effort to help them, especially GM, selling especially prepared Chevy Cavaliers under the Toyota brand even.
https://www.curbsideclassic.com/blog/history/toyota-week-postscript-1995-2000-toyota-cavalier-gm-tries-to-invade-the-japanese-market-with-a-little-help/
Needless to say, it didn’t work. But Tesla is serious about increasing its sales there, although in this case the main obstacle is that Japan has been very EV-averse.
Paul, that’s quite interesting since the actual family I stayed with specifically told me the taxes/fees were very high, thus making import brands too expensive for the regular people in Japan. This was confirmed by the college professor we were with while there. He was in Japan every year back then. But like I said above, I didn’t personally confirm this at that time and instead took them for their word.
Funny thing. I’ve owned a Toyota from years ago. I’ve owned many American brands over the years. I have friends who have owned and some still own import brands. I’ve owned several import brands (new) and had issues with 2 of the 3. Never in my years have I encountered this “real quality shortcomings” you speak of. And I work at a store with import brands now and have sold Honda’s next to Buick and Cadillac for 12 years. My experience is quite different.
They may have heard that from others. I can assure that if you asked Americans if Japan has import tariffs on cars, the great majority would likely say yes.
Look it up; it’s an incontrovertible fact. And the German brands have been taking advantage of that for decades.
As to the “quality shortcomings” this has been documented objectively in endless studies, Consumer Reports, and others. Even the Big Three fully acknowledged it as a fact! Yes, the gap has gotten much smaller than what it was in the 70s, 80s and 90s, but it’s still there and Japanese (and Korean) brands consistently score higher in various studies, polls, etc.
But you’ve made your strong feelings on this subject all-too clear here repeatedly. Go ahead, be a denier. It’s not like you’re the only American who denies certain proven facts! 🙂
But no, I don’t want to waste anymore time with you on that subject, because I’ve long learned that folks who have strong opinions that do not jive with the facts or science will never change their mind.
One last thought? Why exactly do you think Toyota came to be the #1 selling brand in the US? Umm; Never mind…
Yes Paul,
Never mind. Let’s go with that.
We may not agree on much and that’s ok. We all have opinions. That’s ok. I think we can or would all agree that JD Power has been a leading source industry wide (all products), but has been at the top when it comes to automotive. If we can’t agree on that, then I don’t know what we could ever agree on. With that said (and this is all online for proof).
Vehicle Dependability Study (VDS).
2005: 37 brands in study. 14 brands above average. 7 American, 5 Japanese and 2 European. 23 brands below average. 8 European. 6 American. 6 Japanese. 3 Korean.
2018 VDS: 31 brands in study. 13 brands above average. 5 Japanese. 3 American. 3 European. 2 Korean. 18 brand below average. 7 American. 7 European. 4 Japanese.
2021 VDS: 32 brands in study. 13 brands above average. 4 American. 4 Japanese. 3 Korean and 2 German. 18 brands below average. 8 European. 6 American. 4 Japanese. 1 brand was average (American)
2022 VDS: 32 brands in study. 16 brands above average. 6 American. 4 Japanese. 4 Korean. 2 European. 15 brands below average. 7 European. 5 Japanese. 3 American. 1 was average (American).
Paul, how do you spin this? I genuinely want to know how you look at these facts and tell me it’s my opinion? I’ve worked with Honda along side GM brands and personally saw real customers coming in with real problems. I still work with two import brands and see daily the issues. Please, how do you equate this to opinion? If you wish to surround yourself with sheep that just agree with everything because it’s the way it’s been, fine. I’m not a sheep. BTW, that’s also why/how Toyota sells so many vehicles. It’s certainly not because they are that good.
Dan. I was addressing the issue historically, which is why I said:
As to the “quality shortcomings” this has been documented objectively in endless studies, Consumer Reports, and others. Even the Big Three fully acknowledged it as a fact! Yes, the gap has gotten much smaller than what it was in the 70s, 80s and 90s,
I was not addressing more recent years, although the Japanese and Koreans are still doing very well in that regard.
The key decades are the ’70s. ’80s and ’90s. That’s when the Japanese reputation really took hold and increased their market share dramatically. Here’s a post we did on CR reliability from ’76 to ’82. Take a good look at it and then get back to me.
https://www.curbsideclassic.com/uncategorized/consumer-reports-automotive-dot-charts-part-5-1976-82-just-before-the-reformation/
Dan, There’s no question that the quality gap has been narrowed very substantially, and eliminated in some cases. Nevertheless, the used car market speaks:
2012 Camry LE KBB value: $9,437 – $12,234
2012 Malibu LS KBB value: $6,632 – $8,097
As someone who works in sales at a dealership, you must be very familiar with the significantly higher resale value that Japanese and Korean brands bring. How do you explain that?
I’ll take a shot at it: The market assumes that the Camry will continue to provide 50% greater long term utility, reliability and value compared to the Malibu. You might think that assumption is ill-placed, but the market is a lot smarter than any one person, including you.
Anecdotal experience, even from a dealership perspective, is subject to a lot of selection bias. People are more likely to remember and remark on things that are unusually good or unusually bad, whether or not those are statistically representative or not.
For instance, perceptions of how many cars come back to the dealer for unscheduled repairs don’t necessarily reflect how proportionate that number is to the number of cars sold or how likely it is that an owner comes back to the dealership for repair. That can go either way: Rarely seeing a particular model come in for service might mean it’s generally reliable, or it might mean that owners either don’t trust or don’t see the need to go to the dealer to repair the problems that most commonly occur. (Dealer service tends to be expensive, so some people don’t go to the dealership unless it’s a warranty repair, a repair that requires special tools independent shops don’t have, or they have a coupon.)
Paul. So the link you provided to the Consumer Reports I will address first. I am very familiar with that publication and we used it when to our advantage (Honda) and didn’t use is otherwise. This is referring to the time period you refer to, but more so from the time I got into sales in 1988. First, being the product training coordinator for our dealership from 1989 till 1995, it was my responsibility to not only do all the training but to administer the tests/training to the remaining sales staff. I took care of the GM brands and someone else did the Honda. However, I still had to do all the Honda training as well. Between the paper tests (which later became online testing) and the training done by in person through both Honda and GM, we spent many hours learning and testing. So when my aunt walked in one day with a brand new off the shelf C.R. magazine in hand, I was quite excited to look through it. Within the first few minutes, I found their reporting showing the wrong engines in several Cadillac and Buick models. They also had mistakes in several other key categories in which they couldn’t even transpose the info into their magazine. I found this same problems over several years of issues. Second, a buddy who sold (still sells) Chevrolet showed me where C.R. rated the paint on a Caprice with the V8 as different from the V6, although they were built on the exact same line with the same paint booth. I don’t recall which had the above average paint rating and which showed below average, but that doesn’t really matter. Lastly, the results of C.R. are primarily taken from those who subscribe to that magazine. These are people who tend to be import friendly and less American car fans. So let’s just say that C.R. has never really been very high on my radar for being a source of accurate info. And let’s not even go into the “rumors” that have often circulated around the magazine. This is why I place a lot more confidence in JD Powers. But if you are a C.R. guy, go for it.
In your second post, you bring up resale value. Thank you for doing so. I am extremely adept in speaking with clients about this exact topic. Taking your very own example of the same year Camry vs. Malibu. The average between them is about $2,800 (higher for Camry). But I love how people just stop there acting as if that is the end all to that story. It’s not.
When that Camry was purchased new, the amount you would have paid for it would have been (MSRP base model) of about $23,000. The same of the Chevy would have been about $22,000. This based on a quick Google search of those cars when new and base models with automatic. So there’s $1,000 already. Traditionally, the GM would have had more than double the incentive that the Toyota would have had. This is not something I can Google, but having sold for so many years, I can tell you that is the case and I’m sure you can agree with it. For many years, the rebates on GM cars would be over $2,000. So let’s just say this car would have had a $1000 rebate to be safe. Now let’s say the Toyota would have had a $500 rebate. Now we have an additional $500 difference, bringing the Chevy to a modest if not more lower selling price of $1,500 less. But let’s not forget the sale of that new car generated tax and license fees. Let’s just say back in 2012 the average tax on cars was 7.5% (we both live in California and know the tax is higher, but it may be less in other states). So if at 7.5% tax rate, you would then pay an additional $113.00 in tax on the Camry. But wait, the average person finances the car which would create yet a higher amount with the Camry (based on putting the same % down on each car and financing the remaining amount at the same rate for the same period of time). Again, this would be near impossible to figure out exactly so many years later. But let’s just toss a simple number out there of $200 additional in charges over the course of that loan. So the (modest numbers from me) would come to around $1,813.00 more to buy the Camry over the Malibu. Chances are, based on normal selling prices being higher on the Camry than I used, the difference would be closer to the $3,000 mark. Then you have (in California and some other states) where the annual tags would be slightly higher on the Camry due to the higher selling price. All said and done, your own numbers of $2,800 more resale on the Camry is really a myth in the overall costs of ownership. Keep in mind that I sold Honda next to Buick for those 12+ years and that entire time Honda required manual valve adjustments every 15,000 miles. This was a very costly routine maintenance for them that Buick didn’t have. When factoring that into account, the Buick’s were always cheaper to drive than the Honda’s.
To sum up: There is no true resale advantage to the Camry in your example. It’s really a wash at best. But if you only take into account the amount at the end of your ownership with no accounting of other factors, then yes, your beloved Camry has a higher resale.
Cavaliers sold in Japan under Toyota and Chevrolet brands then got exported used to NZ and have all but disappeared now, nobody has parts to keep them going here so if something breaks and the junkyard network cant help thats the end of any ex JDM car,
At the time, your host family wasn’t necessarily “wrong” about the tax being more than doubled; the reason why is more nuanced than strictly the American car being an import.
Prior to 1989, annual Japanese Road tax was dictated by several parameters, two specifically that essentially removed access to American cars from the everyday buyer, those being engine displacement and vehicle width. In order for a vehicle to be classified in the favorable “compact” class, it could not surpass 2.0 liters or 66.9 inches, which between the two eliminated the vast majority of what American car manufactures produced, period. Therefore, the next rung up in taxation classification was “normal” class vehicles, which were subjected to more than double the annual rate of a compact class vehicle at that time. For further context, circa 1984, a new 1.6 liter compact class vehicle with the equivalent purchase price of $4,000 USD was subject to $1,500 in fees and road tax that first year, reaching an expected $6,000 total if owned over an 8 year period. Remember, those numbers would more than double for a normal classification passenger vehicle.
That $4,000 figure given in the 1984 calculation also is good insight why Ford and GM weren’t trying to move Escorts and Cavaliers (two examples of US products that could qualify as “compact” class) in Japan then; the base prices here of those two products were approximately $6,500, way out of whack with a home-market Corolla that $4,000 figure is representing. Paul mentions actual vehicle quality as being a barrier – which is very much true as proven later in the 1990’s when the width part of the road tax equation was eliminated, but speaking to when you were there in 1987, that was sort of a non-starter in the sense that American vehicles were essentially exclusive luxury goods only the wealthy or extremely deliberate purchased.
Thank you for adding this very important part of the equation. It wasn’t a tariff per se, but a tax on size, and one that didn’t discriminate about the origin of the car.
The other consequence of those rules was a very different relationship between expectations of size and price. This was true of American manufacturers trying to make sense of European cars as well (the U.S. market never really drew a clear distinction between B- and C-segment cars, and the former kept dying out or nearly dying out). A lot of models that Americans saw as “cheap little cars” were middle-tier models in their home markets, whereas American cars that were similarly sized or bigger (in overall dimensions and engine displacement) were built down to a price.
It occurs to me than a BMW E21 and E30 3-Series were “compact” (3-number) cars in Japan as long as you stuck to the 318i or 320i. I think the W201 190E was as well, although it was close to the limit on width.
cjiguy: That you for that great explanation. It would make sense of what they told me then.
Apparently the French Pre-Dreadnought look of Chevy Pickups has crossed the Pacific in the form of a Daihatsu HiJet