There’s been a disturbance in the Force. Pickup truck owners are increasingly less satisfied with their purchasing decisions and are more likely to jump ship to a smaller vehicle than ever before. The primary culprit is the astronomical pricing of the average new pickup. And believe it or not, fuel economy is another concern, even as American drivers continue to enjoy relatively cheap gasoline. Should automakers be worried? Maybe.
It’s no secret that new vehicle prices are on the rise. But the idea that current and former truck owners are unhappy with their purchasing decisions and the state of the segment in general is a relatively new revelation, although it’s hardly shocking. It’s been in the zeitgeist recently due to a CarGurus survey that asked truck owners how they felt about their ownership experience. The results aren’t pretty: 68 percent of those polled thought their rides were priced too high.
Their dissatisfaction is understandable. The average transaction price on a modern pickup is about $50,000. And what do buyers get for spending that much? Essentially a mid range model that contains only a fraction of the equipment they’d find on a similarly priced luxury crossover or sedan. Of course it’s well known that the full size pickup is generally offered with substantial discounts, but most truck buyers opt to finance, not lease, which means their monthly payments will be higher.
In addition to current prices, owners expressed concern over the potential price increase of future models. 70 percent would ditch their brand if they raised prices by $10,000. And price is the main reason why owners consider switching to another automaker.
Fuel economy is another area of concern for truck owners. 42 percent of former truck owners cited fuel efficiency as the main reason why they weren’t happy with their vehicle. And 37 percent of them decided to ditch their trucks for a crossover. 35 percent felt a sedan would better suit their needs.
This general discontent with trucks makes 17 percent of current truck owners unwilling to replace their current pickup with another one, regardless of make or model. Reading between the lines, I suspect owners who depend on their trucks for their livelihood are dismayed at the higher prices of the entry level models while drivers who use their pickups as a commuter vehicle dislike their fuel bills. And people who purchased high end pickups may come to regret their decision once they compare their trucks to something like a dedicated luxury vehicle.
Is the collapse of the pickup truck imminent? No. CarGurus collected data from just over 1,000 current and former truck owners but did not divulge any other details about the respondents. That means we have no idea how much they paid for their pickups. We also don’t know how many of those owners were first time buyers. It’s entirely possible that truck newbies disproportionately want to switch to something smaller after they get the experience of owning a pickup out of their system.
With the variability of national incentives and the take home prices of vehicles in general, I’m not going to discuss what exactly you could get for about 50K dollars. Instead I’m going to talk about the fuel economy situation a pickup owner faces when considering a replacement vehicle. The EPA’s official website is a very good tool for this exercise as it lets users personalize different scenarios for comparative purposes. I set this particular comparison to 60 percent highway use with 15,000 miles per year driven. If a loyal Ford owner wants to downsize they obviously have some options. But if they want to get a smaller Ford while retaining some four wheel traction, the fuel economy advantage is basically nil, at least with current gasoline prices. I’m not sure $300 per year is a strong enough reason to switch. Of course, there are other quality of life issues that a Fusion or Escape can solve. But for right now, a Ford loyalist would be wise to wait for the Escape and Explorer 4X4 hybrids that should be at dealerships in decent numbers by the end of the year.
Here’s a different scenario. What if an F-150 driver still wanted a truck like vehicle but wanted something more fuel efficient? The bad news is that there really isn’t anything like that available right now. The Ranger has the most fuel efficient non-diesel powertrain in its class and yet it basically just matches its bigger sibling in fuel efficiency. The Ram, which has a mild hybrid system, is in the same boat. Even the Ridgeline, which is basically a Pilot with a chopped roof on an Accord platform, does not have any sort of advantage in terms of fuel economy. I suspect aerodynamics are the culprit here.
Even something like a Subaru Outback fails to provide substantial savings. A pickup owner making the switch to a Prius could save a lot of money in annual fuel costs. But that would come at the expense of a more capable all wheel drive vehicle since the Toyota has an electronic system that is somewhat limited.
Overall it seems like some type of alternative energy vehicle would be the best replacement for a truck owner who wants to notice a substantially smaller fuel bill at every fill up. The best option for utility would be a Nissan Rogue Hybrid, as it offers a decent amount of fuel savings while retaining a mechanical all wheel drive system. The next best option would be a Tesla, which would significantly diminish any bill for energy consumption, at least when it comes to transportation. And of course there are tons of choices for truck owners who are fine with a two wheel drive vehicle.
Is there a silent majority of truck owners yearning to trade in their rides for something else? Maybe. Should automakers be concerned? That remains to be seen. And this Q1 sales chart from Good Car Bad Car isn’t as bad as it first looks. The only trucks suffering from negative year-over-year growth are models that either haven’t been well received or ones that are overdue for an overhaul. Automakers will most likely retain their pickup customers if they exercise restraint with price increases and if they introduce more fuel efficient pickup variants.
At the very least, this survey is probably a good indicator that there is a market for hybrid crossovers with mechanical all wheel drive systems. It also makes the case for Ford’s future Courier, which will essentially be a pickup based on the Transit Connect.
The overall health of the pickup truck segment depends largely on two things: first time buyers and the retention of current owners. According to the CarGurus survey, it seems like the latter group may be pushed into other types of vehicles if trucks shoot up in price or if gasoline prices increase. As for feature content, I suspect demand at the higher end of the market will continue to resemble the situation that pertains to luxury customers as outlined last month by Doug DeMuro. Basically, customers at the higher end are more concerned with what the car represents than what type of content is contained within. And that will be the status quo until we see the fully electric pickup trucks from Rivian and Ford.
Sources:
2019 Truck Sentiment Survey – CarGurus
“That Swanky $70,000 Pickup Might Not Be Worth It” – Kyle Stock, Bloomberg
“Pickups are pricing out the average new vehicle buyer” – Jamie L. LaReau, Detroit Free Press
Well, this is only a small data point but my FIL the Ford sales associate says that people with large pickups and SUVs complain about the fuel costs, but it doesn’t stop them from getting what they want.
As always, my Grand Caravan will hold a 4X8 of plywood and the sum total of purchase price for our 4 vehicles is in the low 40’s so high price of pickups doesn’t bother me 🙂
A 2wd stripper work truck used to be a cheap way to get into a brand new vehicle. Not anymore. After owning pickups for 30 years, I’m now truckless. I have a hitch on one car for a utility trailer that suits 99% of my hauling needs. For the other 1% of the time I take advantage of free delivery, or if need be pay for delivery, or rent a truck. It’s not as convenient but the savings are astronomical.
Wow!! Chevy lost 2nd place to Ram(Dodge)………………Thats how messed up GM is. These trucks are way overbearing and way over done. They are not the simple haulers they used to be. now you have to think twice before putting something in the back of youe 70 to 100,000 dollar truck.
Fact is FCA did crazy things to beat out Chevy for the #2 title. $10k to dealers to put the classic in their loaner fleet for at least a month. 3 month leases for employees and $18k off of the Classic in Texas. So while some of the problem may be the Chevy truck much of it is Ram buying market share at any cost.
It’s also worth noting that GM full size pickup sales are split somewhat arbitrarily between the GMC Sierra and Chevy Silverado nameplates. To compare apples to apples, it makes more sense to combine them. At ~155k, GM is still sucking wind, but handily outsells Ram.
I know i know,it’s Ram now………it will always be dodge to me.
Like some others here, I fetishize the small, stripped out pickup. I often think about the base Frontier at under $20k.
Then I look at the EPA website. 21 MPG (combined) from a 4-cylinder 5-speed? Most of the full-size trucks with base engines do better than that.
Then I don’t want a pickup any more.
Yeah those $35K XLT, SLE/SLT, LT, crew cab 4×4 1/2 tonare getting harder and harder to find.
Indeed. You can build them online, but good luck finding them on a local lot in my 2 million person metro area. XL and XLT F-150s are all stocked in configurations with MSRPs about 5 grand higher than the basic versions in the build & price.
Best advertised deal on the local GMC dealers lot for a 1500 V8 4×4 crew cab (with towing package but very few bells and whistles) is $40-$42K as your starting place for negotiations.
I did however see my first NEW Silverado in Trail Boss trim and “Custom” actually looked fairly sharp but was also devoid of chrome.
Asking Americans if they are OK with the cost of anything can bring misleading answers. To the typical American, everything always costs “too much”, vehicles always “burn too much gas”. Especially in 2008, when gas cracked $4/gallon, my SUV driving coworkers were crying a river about how much it cost to gas up their Explorers. Did they dump the Explorer for something smaller, or even stop using their remote start to run the car for 10 minutes before they got in? Nope. One guy told me he would gas up his Grand Cherokee before it got below a half tank “so it wouldn’t cost so much”. When his Grand Cherokee was stolen, he had a Chevy Aveo rental until the insurance paid off, so he got a taste of lower fuel consumption. When he had the insurance money, did he buy a smaller car? Nope, he got another Grand Cherokee.
Most people will buy the biggest, most expensive thing they can qualify for financing for, hence the longer financing terms now, 6 years, or 7 in some cases, to enable the ever escalating prices.
On the news wire today, Ford announced switching Wayne Assembly from the Focus to the Ranger will net an additional $1B/yr in profits.
Of course, the ever longer financing may lower the rate that people replace their cars as, at some point, they may be under water on their existing ride.
There is an abandoned Ford/Visteon plant that I drive past from time to time. The parking lot has been empty for years. For a few weeks last year, just as Focus production was ending, it was packed with new Foci, but the lot was cleared out in a few weeks.
I drove past that plant a week ago, and the lot was half full of new F-150s. Drove past it again on Monday, and the lot is now packed to the brim with new F-150s. Mentioned this on a FB group a couple days ago. Another member of the board noted, as of April 1, Ford has an 84 day supply of F-150s. He added that there are a 120 day supply of Rams and Silverados. Automakers usually target a 60 day supply as optimum. FCA had Warren Truck, which makes the “Classic” Ram 1500 on extra downtime in January due to excess inventory.
So is this apparent slackening of demand due to price resistance, or market saturation?
That’s odd, considering Ram and Ford sales are up from last year. Being that a down year in 2019 was expected, that supply may be intentional depending on when they plan to move the most volume.
It will be interesting to see how 2019 shapes up for trucks. Clearly incentives are very high, and the Ram’s increase is being driven by the biggest incentives of all.
I can’t help but wonder if the “catch up” effect of high sales in the years after the difficult recession years has perhaps run its course, and truck sales ease some, as the useful life of them is so long. But then it’s not good to underestimate the American buyers’ desire for the latest version.
My guess is that we’ve seen Peak Pickup, and that it’s going to become a bit more challenging to maintain the past momentum without ever-larger incentives. But then I’ve been wrong before…
Being that a down year in 2019 was expected, that supply may be intentional depending on when they plan to move the most volume.
We will see in the coming months. Ford and GM only reporting quarterly will complicate watching the trends. F series sales for Q1 were up a paltry 0.2%, and we don’t know how front loaded that may be. The Ranger is bound to cannibalize the F-150 to a degree.
Ram sales ytd are up 15%, but FCA now has three plants, SHAP, Warren and Saltillo, all cranking out Rams vs only Warren and Saltillo last year. I wonder about the potential for overcapacity if FCA gets Mack Ave Assembly built. Is the market ready for a doubling of supply of Grand Cherokees, especially if they also get the Wagoneer in production, which would cannibalize the top end of Grand Cherokee sales?
It’s just strange that sales are up at all this year, at least for Ford, as they had the highest sale prices and lowest incentives on the oldest truck. That surprised me quite a bit considering the huge incentives Ford had at the end of 2018. The others make more sense with the bargain Ram Classic accounting for 1/3 of sales and the GMs not being well received along with not all configurations being in production.
Rangers are pretty rare on lots so far and only have $2K or so in markdowns. My local dealer, who sells around 100 F-150s per month, doesn’t have any Rangers at the moment. Guessing production isn’t ramped up yet.
Ram and Ford sales are up from last year
Ford recorded 9,421 midsize Ranger sales in the first quarter of 2019, which was enough to push the overall pickup segment from a sales loss to a win.
And Ram has huge incentives to keep both generations moving out the door.
it’s not quite as positive a start to 2019 as you might think or want to paint it.
It’s also possible that they were gearing up in anticipation of people getting their tax refunds that appear to not be what many were expecting/hoping for after all.
Thing is, used truck prices are sky high as well. I ended up getting an F-150 4×4 Crew XLT for $34K in November. Sticker was $51K. I couldn’t buy a similar Tacoma or Ridgeline for that price at the time. If you look a the “Classic” Ram, dealers start at 25% off sticker and go from there.
There’s new 4×4 F-150s out there on dealer lots now for around $35K. Sure they may be a bit stripped compared to a sedan at that price but there isn’t a sedan on the market with that kind of passenger space. And for that you get a 325 HP, 400 ft/lb V6 that will take you from 0-60 in just over 6 seconds and pull 7600 pounds while averaging within 1-2 MPG of a midsize truck. I’d say that’s a pretty good value.
Like Doug said people may complain but they keep buying. The luxury trucks are where the manufacturers are making their money, but even they can be a decent value compared to other luxury vehicles when resale is taken into account. So long as you don’t pay anywhere near sticker.
I think you’ve captured it well Phil. The “smart” buy in the half ton market are the lower trim trucks, they have an insane amount of capability and utility/comfort for the $35k or so that you can negotiate a new one down to. MPG too, with something like the 2.7L Ecoboost can be pretty astounding if driven with a bit of care. Incredible considering the kind of power it makes.
About the pricing and the “huge” discounts, “truth in advertising” laws seem to have gone out the window. There is a replacement window company here in metro Detroit that always advertises it’s windows are “half off”. There is a furniture store that always advertises it’s wares at “65% off”. Jewelry stores are notorious for jacking up prices, then advertising huge discounts.
It could be the sticker prices on big pickups and SUVs are a fiction, so that when a 4 or 5 figure incentive is offered, the customers think they are getting a deal, when the transaction price is actually what the manufacturer actually wanted to make on the car in the first place. The big three are constantly bragging about their ever rising transaction price and ever rising gross margins, so they aren’t hurting themselves with those big incentives.
“Oh boy, mattresses are 50% off again! Let’s go get another!”
–No one ever
I found the way they do incentives very annoying. Until I was able to get what I got for what I paid for it.
The difference in advertised pricing between dealers varied so widely I’m surprised some attracted any customers. I guess a lot of people still don’t bother shopping around even though it’s easier than ever today.
I got my 2017 Ram Promaster with a 27% discount from MSRP.
My ‘15 RAM 2500 4WD 5.7l Tradesman single cab long bed with snow plow prep and upfitter package was a bit over 30% off the $45K sticker. It was a year old untitled vehicle with a few hundred miles on it from a Chicago area dealer who used it to plow their lots. But it’s strictly a work/farm truck – it rides far too stiffly to be a DD. Not to mention the 13mpg avg. fuel economy.
A lot could be said about this survey.
But your statements about “truck newbies” becoming less enamored with the high sticker price and big fuel bills of their new commuter vehicle are the ones that speak most to me. As a passenger vehicle, they are roomy, quiet, and powerful and you get to feel very big and en vogue, but there are real compromises there. These are strong frames with powerful engines engineered to haul loads and tow things and so they consume a lot of fuel, real estate, and capital. When applied to the same use case as a Ford Taurus of 15 years ago, this could get tiresome. Particularly if your budget is better suited to the Taurus.
And discounted or not, they are very expensive to purchase. Like most folks, I don’t need to tow or haul with any regularity, so if I’m looking for a 4-door commuter and kiddo shuttle and I’m choosing between the old default (sedan) and the new trend (step up to a pick up), my choice could be this: the ubiquitous Camry (F150 of the midsize sedan segment) and ubiquitous F150 (Camry of the half-tons). You can spend $27K MSRP (23 real world) on a midrange sedan with an interior and feature set that feels a step above the price point, and 32mpg. Or, you can spend $50K ($40K real world) on a low-rung XLT F150 with Playskool grade plastics and a feature set that feels three or four steps below the discounted price point, and get *maybe* 20 mpg in the same situation with the small Ecoboost six. The average Joe/Jane on the daily grind is unlikely to appreciate the differences in power and work capacity, but they’ll notice the difference in loan payment, fuel use, and difficulty in which it fits in the garage.
So if folks are switching from sedans to half-ton pickups, I can understand some dissatisfaction. 5-year TCO is probably close to a BMW 330i, and no one would consider that a sound decision over a Fusion. But, perhaps very few people are hopping up to a pickup from a mainstream sedan
For anyone with a different use case and bigger budget, the new half-tons are seriously impressive vehicles.
Undoubtedly a certain percentage of the trucks bought in the past some years are strictly discretionary, in terms of the buyer really needing a truck. That segment of the market may well decide it’s not worth it. Currently gas prices are very high out here on the West Coast, over $4 in CA.
I commented. Oh well, it wasn’t useful
None of the reasons involved how frickin’ ugly the trucks are. Just modern versions of a medieval tool in my opinion.
VERY modern
.
“Just modern versions of a medieval tool in my opinion.”
And one of them is even called a RAM.
LOL. Well played, tbm3fan!
Many people who really can use a truck but don’t need one constantly (and have some space in their driveway) can find a used truck at a big discount over new. Sure there is some incremental cost due to extra insurance etc but nowhere near as much as a monthly payment. Even with higher miles they tend to be ok if not needing to be relied upon as a primary transportation device but just as a “work” vehicle and the gas cost is manageable in that case. With the glut of trucks sold over the last decade, there is plenty of choice and while still being (much) more expensive than an equivalent aged sedan of any ilk, if you can make a use case for it, it can make a lot of sense.
This will be interesting to watch, that’s for sure.
It is massively cheaper to rent such equipment.
Just like it’s massively cheaper to rent a car if you only “need” it a few times a month or less. Anything more than that it’s cheaper to own never mind the inconvenience of going to get the rental truck, fill it with stuff, empty it again, and then return it. Not everyone lives downtown.
Where I live, that is what most people are now doing. I have to drive on a daily basis because of my business.
Keeping a vehicle in a driveway costs me at least $2000 a year and probably more. A lot more.
You can get a junk hauler for a lot less.
You live in the middle of Vancouver, a big city. Some of the folks you keep getting into these ridiculous pissing matches over pickups live in the boonies, or small towns, or just somewhere very different.
Pickups are a regional thing. You’d be surprised how relatively few there are on the roads in SoCal and the Bay Area. And some other big cities, where folks realize that they aren’t exactly the ideal thing.
But that’s not the case elsewhere.
Is this not totally self evident? Why do these knee-jerk comments always appear when the word “pickup” is written here? It’s become very tedious.
Ram pricing starts at 89K here for a basic model up the spec slightly to the more desirable model and start looking under the couch for 115K, meanwhile Ford Rangers fly of the shelf best selling vehicle in NZ for 3 years running but of course they are all diesels nobody wants a gas model, $10+ per gallon and horrendous consumption levels see to that, Rangers are ok to drive, lots of grunt fairly well equipped average handling good towing capacity awful ride but of course they are utes not cars, people love em.
I know we’ve discussed this before, but I believe auto manufacturers are really missing out by not offering a true hybrid version of their pickups. A stripped Tacoma with a Prius-like hybrid system would be my first choice–6500 lbs towing and 30 MPG.
Ford is reportedly working on both a hybrid and a full EV F-150.
A 1989 F-150 Styleside sold for $11,000 / $22,500 adjusted. That’s the damn problem. They are making incredible profits on these, but the value isn’t any better. The MPG certainly isn’t.
What is the problem? There isn’t one.
Corporations have convinced millions of people their masculinity is wrapped up in a giant vehicle that can only carry 700 kg in its 5.5 foot box.
Every time they make their “trucks” more “badass” they sell more. Well, at least until GM recently.
“Only” 700 kg? That’s over 3/4 of a ton, nothing to sneeze at. And in a modern “half-ton” pickup, that’s on the low end. Even the comfort-oriented, low-rated Ram ranges from about 550 to over 1000 kg payload. An F-150 starts at just under 750 kg and tops out at nearly 1500. Tell me, what should a half-ton pickup be rated for? The OBS F-150/light-duty 250, for instance, ranged from 637 kg (F-150 RCSB 4×2) to about 1150 kg (F-250 4×2) payload.
A Hino 195 with a 12′ flat deck can carry 4000 kg.
That’s a real truck.
Congratulations, you’ve brought up a medium-duty (Class 5) vehicle, which wasn’t what we were talking about at all. An F-550 (also Class 5) is rated for nearly 5800 kg. But do you have anything relevant to the topic of the increasing capacities of consumer-grade light-duty (Class 1 or 2A) trucks over the past 25 years?
Comments like these are grossly misinformed. Ignoring for a moment that the MPG is definitely better, you’re not even considering the strides that have been made in power, comfort, and capacity.
Capacity? Beds are smaller as is the allowable load carried.
See my other comment. Max payloads are most certainly not smaller, even when the beds are. And that’s not even getting into towing capacities. What can be towed safely and legally with a half-ton now (in excess of 10K lbs.) was strictly the domain of one-ton duallies 25 years ago.
An 8foot bed on a 2018 F150 has more capacity than an 8fot bed on a 1998 F150. The bedsides are higher. People choose what they choose, that’s why there are choices. Not everyone with a station wagon loads it to full capacity either, many would be just as well off with a hatchback or whatever. Or just the bus for that matter.
It’s quite possible that the 17% who won’t buy another truck bought for fashion, or perceived security and realize that a crossover gives them fashion, perceived safety and better gas mileage.
I am shopping for a used truck right now, but I’m buying a cheap hauler not a showpiece so mid 90s F-150s are high on the list.
Aerodynamics is definitely an issue and there are some fixes. An old study by either C&D or CR showed a significant drag reduction with an open bed and no tailgate, and even better drag reduction with a tonneau cover and the best drag figures with a canopy. GM actually sold a low drag half ton for a while with lowered suspension, an air dam and a tall rear axle ratio.
Not where I live. Rough guess of 75% never carry anything heavier than a new TV in the back.
What I find fascinating is how high the bed has gotten on these big bro-dozers.
I’ve owned a pick-up once. It was actually the ex-wife’s 2002 Chevy S-10. Even its bed height was higher than I would’ve liked, but the little truck was more than capable enough to haul stuff to the dump, or go pick up stuff at Home Depot, or bring home a load of mulch….
Paul has mentioned this before. His basic little (full size in its day) ’66 F-100 is more truck that most folks need. These monsters likely have their purposes, but rolling coal while commuting in rush hour shouldn’t be one of them, unless it is you job to use it as a truck when you get there.
Back to the bed height for a second… I saw a commercial on TV a little while back… GMC if memory serves, that was bragging about their new way-cool step-up tailgate… Let’s see, if you all didn’t make the bed so damned high, you would need this contraption in the first place!!!
Ok, I’ll get off my soap box now… Well, ok, one more thing…
I’ll just ask that you kindly get out of the left lane so that I might be able to see around you on my commute.
Thanks!
Part of the blame goes to Ford and Ram for starting the styling trend in the early ’00s, but some of the bed height increase has been for legitimate reasons: pre-’90s trucks tended to be 4×2, while newer trucks are almost all 4×4. And tires, wheels, springs, axles, and suspension are all taller now than they were 20-50 years ago, for higher payloads and better towing. The capacities of an old full-size truck are more comparable to a new mid-size truck.
Not to mention, the S-10 was a low truck even by the standards of ’90s compacts.
In my opinion, pickups reach an optimal point with the 1999-2006 General Motors trucks. (I own a 2004 GMC 1500 4×4 work truck). After that they became too bloated, too fancy and with too many gizmos.
I would think at some point the fleet buyers and contractors would revolt against the increasing costs. A lot of the styling, gizmos and luxuries that might appeal to some private owners are not necessary in a fleet truck or service vehicle. I don’t have any numbers, but I would think that fleet sales and commercial buyers have to make up a large part of the market.
Fleet buyers do make up a large part of the market–and for the most part, they tend to go for the low-gizmo, no-frills base models which still have the same physical capacities of the high-end trims.
Comments on this article are now closed, as it’s reverted to the usual stupid pissing matches. Boring.