Who is the thief in the night that stole a bunch of passenger cars sales from every major automaker in America? Subaru. The company experienced a meteoric rise between 2009 and 2019. Ten years ago the brand was selling less than 300,000 vehicles annually. Last year the brand moved 700,117 units. Subaru of America delivered 11 straight year-over-year increases in a row, and the company has no intention to dial things back.
Subaru CEO Tomomi Nakamura is bullish on his company’s ability to continue its growth well into the 2020s. He envisions the company moving at least 810,000 vehicles by 2026, which would represent a roughly 15 percent increase from 2019. That would give Subaru a 5 percent market share, which is exactly where he wants the company. How can they keep the momentum going? By opening the spigot. Supply limitations have limited the company’s sales growth. According the Nakamura, Subaru had a 24 day supply of vehicles at the start of December. That’s an insanely low figure for the industry, which is currently hovering at around a 75 day supply. Contrast that with FCA, who recently stuffed unwanted cars into dealers’ mouths.
What vehicles continue to light the fires at Subaru? The Crosstrek. Subaru only has about a 12 day supply of the slightly raised Impreza hatchback. Nakamura’s goal is to have a 45 day supply for the entire lineup. With how things are going for the company, that might be a tall order. The Forester continues to sell extremely well. The compact crossover had its best-ever year, with 180,179 examples finding a home in 2019. Subaru also expanded the Ascent’s reach. They managed to sell 81,958 of them last year. And despite a switchover to a redesigned model, an event that typically impacts sales, the Outback etched out a 1 percent increase in year-over-year sales, for a total of 181,178 units sold.
You may be asking yourself exactly how the company plans to keep the good times rolling. Nakamura is convinced Subaru still has growth potential in the Northeast. With Ford and GM pulling out of the passenger car market and the likelihood that others will follow, it’s not a ridiculous thing to believe. He also thinks Subaru can expand in the Sunbelt too. That might be harder to accomplish. And despite these positive sales numbers, it’s not all sunshine and lollipops for Subaru. The brand had several high-profile recalls at the tail end of 2019. They also slipped two spots in Consumer Reports’ annual reliability survey.
But slipping up still leaves the company on the reliable side of the spectrum. And it’s undoubtedly clear to anyone with a decently functioning brain that Subaru has built a strong brand identity. Their increasingly intimate partnership with Toyota should also help them expand their powertrain offerings. Expect more sophisticated hybrid models from Subaru in the near future. Combined with their signature all-wheel drive systems, they could be the no-compromise vehicles that propel the company to a 5 percent market share by 2026. In any event, it seems like rival automakers should keep the lights on when they go to bed at night, because Subaru might just make off with even more of their market share.
Glad to read about their success, but there’s nothing about their line that particularly impresses me. Guess the car just isn’t my style. What does interest me (slightly) is their almost forgotten four door sedans at the bottom of their line. And now that they’ve gone to CVT’s and the manual is either only theoretically available or completely unavailable (not sure which is true anymore),my interest is further dinged.
In North America you can still get a new stick-shift Impreza/Crosstrek or BRZ. The Indiana factory made manual Outbacks and Legacys up through the 2014 model year for sale in the U.S. and through 2017 for sale in Canada.
More than most manufacturers, Subaru’s popularity varies by region. Super popular in the Northeast, largely unloved in the South. Whether that’s due to AWD being unnecessary in warm, dry climates or just Subaru’s image not resonating in Alabama and Mississippi, I don’t know. Also, why is Subaru just about the only brand that can sell wagons in the US?
Regarding Wagons. Subaru has stood by them since the 1980’s.
GM – Regal wagon discontinued 1983, switched to A-Body Century or B-Body Lesabre, may have been a J-Body Skyhawk for a few years too? Discontinued everything except Roadmaster wagon by the mid 1990’s. Rendezvous, Rainer (last V8 BOF Buick in USA), Terraza were all available until bankruptcy as wagon substitutes. Post-Bankruptcy Cadillac CTS wagon. Buick Enclave, Envision, Encore all available as wagon substitutes. 2018 Buick Regal “TourX” wagon relauched. This is just Buick and one Cadillac no counting the other GM brands of name soup.
Ford – Crown Vic wagon, then Taurus/Escort wagons, Focus wagon, Freestyle, Flex, Edge. Minivans Aerostar, Windstar, Freestar. Again, not counting Mercury’s.
Meanwhile Legacy Outback and Impreza (Outback and then Crosstrek keep going. People know what it is in the market and that it will be there tomorrow.
Wagons? Is the Outback a wagon? It’s grown to now be about the same height as all the other Crossovers. If you see one next to a new RAV4, they’re essentially the same dimensions.
A Manager I used to work with wanted to buy a Toyota Rav4 V6 and they had just stopped making them. I told him about the Venza and Acura RDX back when they were both still available with a V6. He ended up special ordering a fully loaded Outback H-6 instead. Waited about three weeks for delivery from Indiana.
More importantly the buyers don’t think they are buying a wagon.
As a 5th gen Outback owner, I consider it a wagon. Yes it is very similar in dimension to a Rav4 and other crossovers, but the Outback is clearly a wagon(ish) version of the Legacy sedan. They clearly share the majority of parts, unlike say a RAV4 and a Corolla which share platforms.
I think height of the wagon is irrelevant. Many of the early to mid-1950s wagons were just as tall, which I believe has been discussed here before. That’s my take on things, for what it’s worth.
I fully agree that I and I’d say most would consider the Outback a wagon and it’s a large part of why I bought my 2014 when I did. It’s an evolved wagon as opposed to starting out higher up. The first Outback in fact did not have a raised ride height, then the next year it did but still with the same body. I’d call the AMC Eagle a wagon as well as the Flex, but not a CRV or Escape or even a 3-row such as Explorer or Highlander.
The real question is what does one call the lifted Outback Sedan from a few generations back if the Wagon is a CUV? They called it a SUS (Sport Utility Sedan).
That’s generally how I define wagon too – sharing the basic body and interior of a sedan, even if it is given extra ground clearance, cladding, and SUV-ish styling tweaks. But then, that definition would exclude some vehicles that are universally regarded as wagons, like those tall-roofed Civic wagons from the 80s and 90s.
In any case, Volkswagen and Buick tried and failed to sell butched-up raised AWD wagons (or whatever you choose to call the Golf Alltrack and Regal TourX) in the US. Volvo is the only other brand that does reasonably well with wagons, mostly the raised-and-cladded Cross Country versions though they do sell, at a very slow rate, conventional wagons. Audi currently has two Allroad raised wagons, tough they aren’t big sellers. Mercedes has an non-lifted E-class wagon. BMW doesn’t have any traditional wagons, though the X1 and X2 are barely tall enough to look like crossovers. But none of these sell in anything close to Outback-like numbers.
my wife has one, we love it. I wish they built a pickup truck….i appreciate their simple aesthetic.
They could always bring the BRAT back and base it on the Forester or Impreza
To be fair, 2009 was an extreme low point for US auto sales with only 10.4 million selling as compared to 17 million last year. So to be somewhat pedantic Subarus 300k then would translate to almost 500k today if all was linear like that. It’s hard for others to complain when they really don’t try to compete in many/most of Subarus lines for the other 200k sales last year.
That being said, Subaru could easily increase their sales by going back to offering a FWD version of many of their vehicles, not least of which the new Ascent – Many Highlanders and Explorers are sold as 2WD and I’d presume that a lot of people south of I-40 see zero need to own, pay for, and feed a 4WD vehicle, thus likely just knocking it off their list altogether without consideration. Adding a Legacy FWD sedan and perhaps wagon could also easily add incremental share. As could increased electrification as those markets and Subaru buyers in general would seem to overlap quite a bit.
Image matters. Folks south of I40 mostly don’t need 4Wd Jeeps, either. Like Jeep, Subaru has a strong brand image. You keep a brand image by mostly doing the stuff your brand stands for.
Subaru doesn’t want to go back to being an economy car with a weird engine.
People move up to Colorado from Texas all the time with their 2WD Cherokees and Grand Cherokees (and then try to sell them after the first snow and ice). Back in 2007 you could even get a 2WD Wrangler. I think the Wrangler may be the only current Jeep that isn’t sold with a 2WD option.
I’m surprised and a bit disappointed in Subaru’s current lack of hybrid offerings. Their tie-up with Toyota can only strengthen this avenue in the future. As well, a small pickup and mid-size minivan would be potential areas where they could expand.
That said, Subarus in the Houston area are considerably thicker on the ground then they were 5-10 years ago. I love mine (especially in our torrential rains and high water situations), but it’s still not Toyota-level reliable. At 7 years and 145k miles, structurally it’s still rock-solid.
I think the Crosstrek now offers a hybrid, but it’s AWD with all the normal Subaru driveshaft and differential etc. instead of going electric with the rear wheels and saving space and getting better fuel economy. Instead it has a higher deck in back like a Ford C-Max hybrid.
I was looking forward to getting a hybrid Forester when they get around to it but assuming it uses the same system as its platform-mate there isn’t much point.
Interesting that just when a lot more hybrids are coming out GM dropped the Volt after spending bazillions on it with two very different generations. Because GM?
Lack of hybrid models is a GOOD thing. In fact one of the great things about Subaru has been their continuing success without much in the way of accommodating the enviro-fascists. (I would not be interested in buying a hybrid or electric vehicle.)
Ha! Ignorant of the fact that before the Prius, an all-wheel-drive Subaru Legacy wagon was the stereotypical car of the countercultural greenies.
I love my BRZ!
I’m seeing many more Crosstreks on the road around here, and it seems as though about 50 percent of them are the pale blue color.
Around here, the Crosstrek’s are mostly found in that burnt orange color. Using the same body as my Impreza, it’s the right size for 95% of the things we do. However, my wife can’t stand the wheels.
The CVT in the Subaru is actually quite good, all things being considered. Being a bit older, whenever i drive standard for a bit of time, my left knee really starts to not feel that good.. Mine came equipped with fake paddle shifters, which simulates a 6 gear transmission electronically. This helps tremendously in the winter with engine braking.
In the lean years of the mid 90’s Subaru offered FWD only versions of some models, even the SVX could be had as FWD for a couple of years. But their management came to see this as a dilution of the brand’s identity and as I recall they then pledged to do only AWD going forward.
The boxer engine also came to be integral to their identity. But that would be irrelevant in electric vehicles, and may have to be cast off for some hybrids, depending on how much they borrow from partner Toyota. Seems to me Subaru is already emphasizing the boxer a lot less in their sales literature than they used to.
Subaru started out (after the tiny 360) as a FWD car company, The 4WD wagon came along later, in the mid ’70s. But they continued to offer FWD cars until about 1992, when they were in deep trouble in the US. They came very close to pulling out. They decided they couldn’t compete with Honda, Toyota and Nissan head on anymore, so they retrenched as an AWD company, in the US. That, along with the Outback, was the key to their success.
They continued to make FWD cars for the Japanese domestic and other markets.
1997 was the first all-AWD lineup in the US. To my knowledge, North America is the only major market in which Subaru went all-AWD. That is, until the BRZ debuted.
Subaru made a big noise about the boxer diesel they built but have been quiet about it ever since I guess they still sell one here, they arent the most popular cars around now but I still see the newer ones on the road so someones buying them, theyve jacked them up into SUV/CUV territory to enter that market along with everyone else it may work but a CVT will keep me away I can suffer an auto or AMT but not a CVT.
Subaru is the perfect car for people that don’t care about cars. Their ads have been driving this point home for years (who can forget the soaping and hosing the interior ad from a few years ago?)
Subarus are not exciting in the least (sorry, WRX STi), and apparently there are a lot of buyers who feel the same way.
The market Volvo walked away from.
I think Subaru owners actually love their cars more than most other people do and specifically sought them out when they purchased them, it’s a rare person that just somehow falls into owning a Subaru. If that’s not caring about cars I don’t know what is.
Agreed. There’s a lot of loyalty to the Subaru brand, and Subaru has played this up very successfully. Subaru owners care a lot about their brand and cars, for the most part.
Hosing out a car doesn’t mean you don’t care about it. It just means in a different way. For Subaru owners, who tend to be very outdoorsy, that’s a big plusI think you’re misinterpreting their ads, or seeing them through Brougham-colored glasses. 🙂
Owner loyalty and enthusiasm with Subaru has always struck me as a Japanese equivalent to Volkswagen. But that’s just how I perceive it.
You mean, anti-logical?
That’s subjective, but I do agree there are lots of anti-logical things in life.
Between me and my then not-ex, we had a total of 5 Subaru in the late 80s until we divorced. We wouldn’t consider any other car, and being in the south, it was a buyer’s market.
I disagree, they are great for people who do like cars. They aren’t really cutting edge in compared to some of the other manufacturers; their technology seems about a generation older than most. However, I never had any electrical gremlins, and after the warranty ran out things still work, unlike my sister’s Explorer or my Wife’s Torrent.
The car is actually ok to work on, if you are that kind of car guy. Mine didn’t come with one of those engine covers, so you can actually do some things yourself. With the Flat 4 (I still refuse to call it a boxer engine!) the engine compartment is relatively easy to work on a lot of things on the top part of the motor; but anything deeper down i believe you would have to pull the motor. To change the plugs, you are almost up against the frame rail, and have to keep switching tools to get them out. It was harder and took longer than some of the other cars i’ve changed plugs on, but they were really old technology (Volvo 242, IHC Scout 4cyl, Jeep I-6’s, Ford 351c.) At least I didn’t have to jack up the rear end like i did with the one VW Type 1 i changed them on.
My wife’s Torrent is almost impossible to work on – things really hard to reach without growing a foot taller, or if they are easy to get to, they make it difficult to remove by requiring speciality tools. It’s just so much less stressful to take that to the dealership.
It is interesting that for all the growth they continue to rely on a single US plant. That plant was originally a joint venture with Isuzu, so there was room to grow once Isuzu jumped out of the bed. There was an expansion a few years ago, but nothing in the last couple of years.
I would love to know Subaru’s market share in and around Tippecanoe County, Indiana where that plant is located. The dealership there is larger than many Ford or Toyota dealers of my experience, but then this is the place all employee deals get done.
Oddly, I have firsthand experience with just one of their cars. My sister got an Outback in maybe 2014 or 2015. It was the first year no stick shift was available. She never bonded with the car and it also had some electrical glitches which never got fixed, and after less than 2 years it was traded on a new Wrangler Rubicon. With a stick.
It is interesting that for all the growth they continue to rely on a single US plant.
They don’t. The Ascent, Impreza sedan and 5-Door compact, Legacy sedan and Outback SUV are made in Indiana. But the Crosstrek, Forester, WRX, WRX STI, or BRZ are all made in Subaru’s Japanese plant. The Indiana plant had a very big expansion in 2017, which increased capacity by 100,000 units. But their Japanese plant counties to be an important source of Subarus sold in the US.
Yes, I was aware that they rely on Japan for quite a number of their sales. I was just surprised that with all of their growth they have not added a second US plant. But as you note, they have expanded their facility in Indiana quite a lot and it is in a location that would allow a lot of expansion yet before they run out of room.
There has been talk of Subaru being production capacity-constrained in recent years, but their Lafayette plant produced Camry-platform cars for Toyota for a short time during a spike in demand earlier this decade, and Toyota Group has increased their stake in Fuji/Subaru since then, so I would assume a reciprocal wouldn’t be impossible. Which means to me their production-constraints are partially self-imposed.
While Subaru continues to grow in popularity, I can’t say my personal experience reflects that of the public. While anecdotal, we have three late model Subarus in our family, two Foresters and our Outback. None of the three of us would be willing to buy a Subaru again after our ownership. My sister-in-laws Forester has been a hugely problematic vehicle and it spent long periods of time at the Subaru dealer trying to diagnose engine issues. Our Outback has been relatively okay, but the few issues I have had with it has been very painful in dealing with Subaru to get them resolved (one warranty issue has been over 1 year and were still working on getting it resolved). My brother’s Forester has been the best of the bunch, with no issues other than recalls and premature brakes wear. However, both my brother and I have said the same thing, neither on of us are really like the cars – they just are “meh.”
It’s too bad, I really wanted to the like the Outback. I like that it is more wagon-like than a typical cross over. I like that it had lots of interior space and good visibility. But the overall quality is disappointing, and the service has been horrendous. Fuel economy has so-so and the AWD system is noticeably better in the snow than other CUVs I have driven. My wife has had similar feelings for the car and she has basically told me that she wishes we never sold her Prius.
I am not sure how long I am keeping mine, but I can guarantee I won’t be buying another Subaru. The lack of hybrids is a downfall for me, along with the new Outbacks having no improvement in fuel mileage and less cargo room behind the rear seat. In all likelihood, our next car will be a Rav4 Hybrid. Coincidentally, the other two family members with Subarus also want Rav4s as their next vehicles as well.
Maybe you haven’t heard, but Subaru in Japan has been in a huge scandal over its quality. They fudged lots of critical reporting and such. They got into a lot of hot water over it, but it’s not been in the news much here. There’s no question their quality has taken a hit. And the problems continue, as they stretch too hard to meet demand.
Here’s one article: https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/subaru-strains-under-production-pressure
And another:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/27/business/subaru-inspection-japan.html
I didn’t pay to access the autonews story, but the NY Times one seems to say that they used unqualified “inspectors” to perform Japanese-government mandated “final inspections” that, in fact, require nothing much more than a heartbeat to perform. That doesn’t really translate to “poor product quality”.
Google “Subaru Quality issues’ and you’ll find plenty of reading. here’s just one:
https://www.torquenews.com/1084/subaru-tries-rebuild-your-trust-after-scandals-and-quality-issues-it-wont-be-easy
I’m not anti-Subaru; I’m just reporting what’s been developing the past few years. And I’m not saying the issues are horrible, but they do have some.
I hadn’t seen those articles, so thanks for sharing. I spend time on a Subaru forum and I have seen issues related to quality control. To be fair, our car really hasn’t been a bad car, it’s just we’ve been spoiled by our last few cars being so good and Subaru’s warranty service has been awful. At the time we were car shopping I wasn’t aware of any quality issues, but I didn’t expect Toyota quality either.
I wanted to keep this car about 10 years since we bought it new, but I won’t now. I now worry about major component longevity, as there are still concerns with oil consumption with the FB engines and the CVT’s also seem to be questionable. The last time I was at the Subaru dealer I was warned by the service manager that they have been having issues with the FB engine as new as 2017 model year due to oil consumption.
Also one quick edit from my original post (I missed the edit window), the AWD is not significantly better in the snow than other systems I have driven. Maybe in extreme it’s better, but in snow country where I live, I haven’t noticed a big difference.
I’m still in love with my ’05 Legacy GT 5-spd wagon – so much so that I’m putting a new engine in it rather than more cost-effectively replacing the vehicle – but nothing in their current lineup really excites me. I have a Outback loaner right now, pretty gutless and boring machine, but I see a zillion of them on the road here in southwestern Ontario. There is an Outback XT (i.e. turbo) now available, I haven’t driven that but maybe… if it weren’t for that CVT…
Subaru and VW Group (VW, Audi, Porsche) are the automakers who pay most attention to visibility from cockpit. Thin pillars and minimal “painted glass area.”
I don’t understand the excitement Boomers have over these vehicles.
What would you recommend instead that is price and functionality comparable?
My older sister is an example of someone who switched to Subaru in 2017 and has become quite the brand advocate. After owning Gen 1, 2 and 3 versions of the Honda CR-V (she was a functional “cute ute” early adopter), she switched to a Subaru Outback in 2017. What drove the change was probably boredom and brand imagery. She’s a Manhattanite with a weekend place upstate along the Hudson, so the car is primarily parked in an urban garage during the week, but treks out “to the country” every weekend. The early CR-Vs had that functional/outdoorsy vibe, but more recent ones come across as tall cars for the ‘burbs. Subaru, however, has continued to build on its imagery of AWD versatility, and the products still have an aura of uniqueness/quirkiness.
When my sister was shopping to replace her last CR-V, she started back at Honda, but just wasn’t smitten. I suggested she check out some other products including the Subaru Forrester (roughly matching the CR-V concept), but the savvy Subaru salesperson got my urbanite sister all fired up on the Outback as being rugged and practical as well as nice and comfy–and pitched it as being the best choice for “North Easterners who enjoy the country.” Bam! Sold! Imagery and reputation count for a lot in the car business, and Subaru has done well to dominate and grow their niche against more generic competitors.
If i recall, Subaru was one of the only car companies to make a big profit during the great recession.
They carved out a popular niche spot that has been very good to them in terms of sales. I did not care for Subaru much in the 1980’s (Well the XT was something to see when it came out) but after the first Legacy came out, I was like wow! The first gen Legacy was so much different then the Leone/ DL/GL that was sold from 84 to 94
I had a 1993 Impreza for a few months, it was beat to crap when I got it but still ran well. I used it as winter beater car.
The 1980 or so Leone 4wd wagon was a characterful beast, having rack steering, fully-independent suspension, frameless doors, throbby old dunger of a motor, and, natch, hi-lo 4wd. Literally no other Japanese car offered anything nearly as interesting. Nor as entirely unable to be killed, as it turned out (in a dry country).
The road tests said they didn’t live up to the advanced spec, and having driven one (years later) they were sort-of right, but it was still unexpected fun.
Later Legacies (Liberty in Aus) were characterful and also refined, and damn decent cars. They seemed the beginning of a Japanese BMW, or thereabouts, singularly focused. And the WRX was its own successful story, their M division or so.
But now? For years, they’ve been gaudy and over-sized, bland and indistinguishable, quite free of any distinction, and I can only imagine the perception that small 4wd=Subaru sustains sales growth.
It’s impossible not to notice that the homogenization and embiggening of them has paralleled their growth in America.