If you’ve ever wondered why it seems like I have a hard time relating to or writing about domestic cars from the ’80s up, it’s because they were quickly becoming irrelevant in California when I lived there. Our local Chevy dealer refused to stock anything but Corvettes, Suburbans and pickups, and this was in the late ’80s already. From the late 70s on, domestic cars in California were increasingly seen as something irrelevant or quaint.
This is not just a subjective opinion. This report put out regularly by the CA New Car Dealer’s Association shows just how poorly domestic brands have been faring, and for decades now. Toyota is #1, by a healthy margin, followed by Honda. #3 Ford and #4 Chevy are only relevant because of their trucks; their passenger car sales have been irrelevant there for decades. Nissan is #5. And nipping at its heels is Tesla.
The old adage is “As California goes, so goes the nation”. It has certainly been true regarding imports, along with a huge range of social/technological/environmental/other influences. So the question is whether it will be true with Tesla.
This chart’s 2018 YTD market share understates Tesla’s current performance, because volume production and deliveries of the Model 3 didn’t get underway until the third quarter. In that quarter, Tesla’s market share was 4.6%. Compare that to some of other brands (2018 YTD market share): Acura: 1.1%; Audi: 2.1%; BMW: 3.3%; Cadillac: 0.5%(!); Hyundai: 3.0%; Lexus: 3.0%; Lincoln: 0.3%(!); Mazda: 2.4%; Mercedes: 3.9%; Subaru: 3.9%; VW: 2.2%.
Keep in mind that Tesla has only three models.
If you’re wondering whether California got an overwhelming percentage of Tesla’s production, it was 32% of all US sales and 27% of their global sales. That’s less than lots of early import brands in the 50s and 60s, when it was common for California to represent over 50% of their US sales.
Another significant chart is this one, that shows pure EVs outselling both hybrids and plug-in hybrids. Since this YTD chart doesn’t reflect Tesla’s even higher selling rate in the third quarter, pure EVs are undoubtedly outselling both hybrids by a larger margin than this chart reflects. Adding Tesla’s 4.6% market share along with other EVs probably add up to some 5-6% or so.
If you’re sick of hearing so much about Tesla’s meteoric rise, my apologies. But this is the most significant thing that’s happened in the market since the import boom of the 1950’s. And we can see where that went, especially in California.
If you haven’t driven one, then you won’t be able to understand why they are so popular. They are more solid than Mercedes used to be, faster than Porsche wants to be, and more stylish than any Italian automaker currently is. Add the fact that a “fill-up” in your own garage, even at California’s criminally high 25 cents per Kw/h, is $21, and……..
We just changed to TOD metering here in Fort Collins and it’s been quite interesting so far. The rate for most of the day here is now 6.45c/kw/h and only jumps up to 21 cents between 5 and 9pm and ONLY on weekdays, weekends are 6.45 all the time. My bill ended up staying right about the same last month (the first month of this) with some juducious awareness of when to run the dishwasher etc.
In any case, my belief is that it was partly done to offset the Solar crowd and the net metering issue here. Now the utility only has to pay out 6.45c for much of the day for excess energy but solar owners have to pay 21c when their panels mostly stop producing between 5 and 9 (it’s dark by 5 these days) unless they’ve invested in a battery backup.
At 6.45c an electric makes ALL KINDS of sense if you set the charge to occur anytime outside of the 5-9pm window. (that is for winter, in summer the higher price window will be between 2 and 7pm, mainly due to AC unit draw I presume, but again for weekdays only).
EDIT: There is a tier charge for anything used over 700kwh per month, but the charge is only 1.76c per kw/h so not at all a deal breaker.
Interesting about the TOD metering. That makes charging an EV at night dirt cheap. But yes, it is going to hurt the net metering folks with panels.
I’m utterly convinced that electric rates will be on a continued long-term downward trajectory (inflation adjusted) as solar and other renewables keep getting cheaper. It’s an inevitability.
Not just at night, also for most of the day. It makes a lower range electric or PHEV more attractive if you can or need to use its electric range in the morning and then plug it in again to use again in the afternoon or evening for no greater cost than waiting for the night. (Assuming one spends time at home during the day which is more and more a reality for people).
Hmm 31c is my current power charge rate Califonia has cheap electricity EVs are advertised here as costing the equivalent of 30c per litre to run still cheaper than gas but a long way from free unless of course you have solar panels.
Most people would consider the Model X an SUV. (yes I know we here have differing definitions but it’s as much an SUV as a BMW X6 or the Mercedes GLE sloped back version is and I’d say people would be comparing it to those, the X5, the GLE, GLS, Q7 etc o it plays in the same space.)
It’s interesting how the plug-ins have increased as well by quite a bit. I think often now the option is to get a car in EITHER Hybrid or Plugin hybrid – I.e. you used to be able to get a Prius, now you have a choice between a Hybrid Prius OR a plugin Hybrid Prius. Taken together ALL Hybrids still have more market share than full electrics, I find the chart to be a bit misleading in that aspect. In any case more and more hybrids are being offered as plugin hybrids INSTEAD of regular hybrids and end up driving as pure electrics for much of their lives for those with shorter commutes etc with zero range anxiety issues.
Are we considering the RAM trucks with the electric assist a Hybrid?
The Tesla increases in CA seem to almost carry over to the US as a whole (not quite but close) if I’m reading the 4th column in the first two headings correctly. I myself think the upcoming Model Y (smaller SUV/CUV) will be what really gets things going. I mean if sedans are dead to most then something the size of a Q5 or similar should really set the world alight, right?
The other thing that is interesting is that even though the Model 3 has taken a chunk out of A4 and 3-series sales there seem to be a LOT of people trading up from a Civic or Camry or whatever, i.e.MUCH cheaper vehicles which surprised me.
Yes, that was a bit of a brain fart. It is an SUV.
And you’re right about how to interpret the hybrid chart correctly. I’m guessing mild hybrids are not included, but I don’t know their exact methodology.
From my understanding the BMW 3 is the only premium, non-Tesla vehicle in the top 5 cars traded in on 3’s. The list I saw was
Prius
BMW 3
Accord
Civic
Leaf
So most people are coming out of mainstream models and a not insignificant number are coming out of an EV, PHEV or HEV.
Wow – Honda should really get cracking on an electric sedan it looks like.
If they are smart they should be working on a CR-eV.
As usual, new green cars mainly attract buyers of old green cars. I doubt there is any environmental benefit for a Prius owner to drive a Tesla, and probably a negative benefit for the Leaf owner because of the negative environmental impact of the Tesla’s much larger battery. The Civic, Accord and BMW 3 are also very economical gasoline cars, so probably minimal positive impact there, and perhaps even negative in markets where a substantial portion of electricity is generated with coal. Only when masses of people start trading in F-150s, Silverados and V-12 S-Classes will EVs potentially generate significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, but I don’t see that happening anytime soon.
Interesting to see Alfa’s gains. New RWD sedan plus new SUV would explain, but still 86% is a massive jump. Over here, neither seems to have set the world on fire.
Alfa is experiencing similar gains nationwide too.
Maserati is hurting, though. I’d have to guess Tesla is part of the reason for that.
I don’t know about nationwide, but in California Alfa is outselling Buick. I know the Buick brand is big in China, but it’s time for GM to just put Buick out of its misery here in the US.
Buick has been popular in China due in large part to its perceived desirability in the U.S. Kill the brand in its (former?) home market and those Chicom sales would suffer.
Not that I particularly care if that happens, of course. I agree that Buick should die.
Thank you for highlighting this. Good to see such wide adoption of leading technology. The public will play a leading role in carbon reduction, as many governments remain heavily lobbied by the fossil fuel industry.
Although I cannot speak for anyone else, I will certainly not play a part in “carbon reduction” as it is not necessary. (CO2 emissions are not a problem.) Heck, I may well seek ways to increase my carbon output, it’s good for the plants.
I simply refuse to go along with it. In point of fact am not willing to make a single change in my lifestyle in the name of “carbon reduction” – which also appears to the be the case for the vast majority of those purveying the climate change junk science scam. They continue to jet around the world, chauffeured in fleets of SUVs to meet with their fellow scammers in buildings equipped with huge energy-guzzling HVAC systems.
No electric car for me, thank you very much. Aside from the incontrovertible fact that they are too expensive and in many ways too limited, with questionable longevity (no, an 8 year guarantee on a very expensive battery pack is not long enough), the mere fact that governments and environmentalists want to “nudge” me into one is sufficient reason not to buy one.
Beautifully and brilliantly said. You’ve managed to make made me smile on this gray morning. 🙂 Thank you!
Get off my lawn!
Get a horse!
It’ll never catch on!
It’s just a scratch!
I might add that I just bought my last gasoline car. The actual cost of ownership of an electric is practically identical, so there goes the “it costs too much” argument.
It should be ok!
Haha, oh wow.
+ 1 Daniel. Tesla mighn’t be the answer to all, but the idea (and the shift in thinking) sure is.
I could see the writing on the wall 6 years ago when Csaba Csere made an on-line review of the Model S for Car and Driver. He reviewed this new electric car without compromise. Unlike previous electrics, there was no excuse given for any shortcomings.
I was stunned. Here was a respected auto writer, whose work I’d read since I was a kid favorably comparing the Tesla to established luxury German brands on an equal footing. I knew then I was looking at the future.
The Tesla is as revolutionary as the jet engine or the transistor, where the superior performance and tremendous seamless simplicity replaces the fussy, flawed and progressively complex old technology.
Same here. That review was a real eye-opener . That was when I first realised Tesla would be worth watching.
There are a couple of reasons why this does not mean that this is a sign of the bigger long term picture.
First is the federal tax credit. The phase out will start as of 1/1/19 with the credit being cut in half and come 7/1/19 it will be cut in half again. That will reduce the desirability to a significant number of people and thus they may be less likely to convert their deposit to an actual order of for non-reservation holders to step up. Because of this and Testa’s general desire to get cars in customer’s hands sooner rather than later means that they have likely prioritized delivery to customers they can deliver the cars too the soonest. In fact on their website they are noting the delivery times for different areas and the fact that they will do factory deliveries to speed up the process.
The second reason is that CA offers a $2500 rebate on top of the Federal Tax credit. Yes it has an income level cap, but at 150k/300k many qualify.
The third and more difficult to put a value on is the fact that they offer HOV/Free HOT lane access. To put a little presepective on it however we have HOT lanes in my area and it is not unusual for the price to save a projected 15-20 min being $10.75 and they have a number of takers. I know I’ve paid $5.75 for a ~10 min time savings because I had an appointment I didn’t want to be late for. So it would be easy for a person to think that access could be as worth as much as $2500 per year for that permit that could be good for 3-4 years. Certainly that is not a value that everyone would be willing to put on that access I do know that a lot of off least Ford Energi vehicles show up on lots in WA with the Clean Air Access OK stickers on them.
The greater question is what the ongoing demand will be. The tax credit is going away and that is certainly not going to help future demand. The reservation holder list will eventually be cleared, with or without conversion to an order and how many people will be standing in line behind them?
Personally I do think overall sales will fall off a cliff come mid 2019 as the tax credit reduces to $1875 and the current 3 reservation holders either get theirs or decide to ask for their deposit back.
Personally I do think overall sales will fall off a cliff come mid 2019
I’ll check back with you then.
What you have utterly failed to take in consideration is that the Model 3 is constantly generating strong new interest/orders by virtue of folks being exposed to the ones that they see increasingly, and perhaps by a friend/neighbor/co-worker. If you think the total Model 3’s lifetime demand is all in those initial reservations, you’re quite mistaken.
The simple reality is that a lot of folks want to have what’s in and popular, and the more Teslas they see, the more they want one too. That’s how it worked with Mercedes and BMW in the 70s and 80s.
Also, Tesla, having sold more than 200,000 cars, has already exhausted the big federal tax credit (only qualifying for a smaller one) and that hasn’t hurt Tesla sales one bit. The tax credit has been a perk for sure, but Tesla is not at all dependent on it to keep up their momentum.
I spend some time on social media platforms predominantly used by millennials, and can say with certainty that Teslas are perceived as THE aspirational car by the younger crowd, much as BMWs were in the ’80s or Cadillacs in the ’50s and ’60s. Some of them think of Mercedes-Benzes and BMWs as somewhat passe cars for old people, as unfashionable as Broughams were in 1995. It can’t be overstated what effect the hundreds of thousands of people who’ve put down $1,000 deposits for the privilege of getting in the queue for a Tesla has had on their perception – to those who are at all fashion-conscious but not car people, it creates the unmistakable perception of *desirability*, the car everyone wants even if they can’t yet buy, while other brands have cash on the hood but still can’t easily find takers.
Actually you can still qualify for the full credit if you take delivery by the end of this calendar year. It appears there are cars that are available that were apparently “batch” built and not sold yet in various locations around the US. (i.e. they grouped popular build combination orders together and built a few more of those at the same time for efficiency’s sake.). While they have sold over 200k cars, the credit reduction takes place AFTER the end of the year, so any extra cars over 200k but sold before the end of the year still qualify.
As Jim pointed out the full tax credit is available to those who take actual delivery by Dec 31st 2018.
The big telling point that Jim made is that they are building “sales bank” cars right now. That means that the reservation holders aren’t converting to orders as fast as they are making them. Some of those reservation holders are certainly still waiting because they want the $35k car they were promised when they signed up. Many of those would be buyers at $35k were expecting a $7500 tax credit. How many will drop out when their expected entry price jumps from $27,500 to $31,250, assuming any of those $35k models are produced by June 2019? How many will be in come July when it the cost jumps to $33,125.
Tesla obviously understands the the tax credit is a major factor for some buyers. https://electrek.co/2018/10/31/tesla-urge-buy-model-3-mid-range-full-tax-credit/
I find your comment about other brands having cash on the hood and not finding takers very ironic. Fact is the model 3 has $7500 on its hood right now and Tesla is building sales bank cars because they can’t get enough of those reservation holders to convert to orders.
A lot of Tesla’s cachet comes from the model S and its lofty price. When you used to say I own a Tesla people in the know would assume you spent over $100k, and the desirability (envy) for many was simply due to that price.
Now however when you say Tesla … model 3 everyone will think you bought a $35k car, despite the fact that they still haven’t made a single example of that version. However the fact that they made such a stink that they were starting at $35k means that is the price many will affix to all model 3s and that is not very impressive and thus not worthy of desire or envy.
I didn’t know about the end-of-year thing, however, I still don’t think the smaller tax credit will make much of a dent in Model 3 demand. A few might bolt (pun unintended), but they’ll be replaced by newcomers attracted by the improving infrastructure and greater visibility by having many on the road.
Nor do I think Tesla’s cachet is all about the high price of a Model S or X. It helps, but that kind of money can buy, say, a Lexus LS and its sales aren’t skyrocketing even with a new model out. Much of Tesla’s appeal is that it’s perceived as the future of automobiles, as the highest of high-tech available, a relative startup that’s making 100+ old competitors play catch-up. Consider the original Mustangs in ’64-’65 – it was *the* hot car of its time, very high in desirability especially amongst young people, yet not at all expensive. Or, to take an example from outside the automotive industry, the original iPhone. OK, it was expensive for a phone in 2007, but that’s not why so many people wanted one. No, it was because it was cool, and instantly made every other mobile phone look like an antique. Ten years later, nearly all phones look like iPhones. Right now, Teslas are cool, the harbinger of new technology that’s about to sweep the industry, and it seems likely in a decade or two most cars will be alot like it. Buying a Tesla, whether $90K or $35K, is being in early on a transformative trend, and as such their cachet is assured for at least the near future.
For the buyer of the mythical $35k car the reduction in tax credit takes them from a 20% discount to a 10% and then 5% discount. That will affect buyers, make no doubt about it. Of course we will just have to wait a few months to see just how big the effect is.
I do think the email that Tesla sent, which is in the link above, is very telling that they think the impact will be not be insignificant.
It will be interesting to see what measures they take to clear out the sales bank in the next few weeks. I can see follow up emails going out to reservation holders offering encouragement and possibly incentives to take one of the cars they have “available for immediate delivery near you”.
I believe that you are projecting a bit in your assertions.
I don’t really like or dislike Tesla, other than not liking the hype. The cars are good, not great, but there is no denying they are becoming popular. Popularity means they are selling. You tend to put a lot of weight into the idea that the tax credit is really important to selling the car. I don’t think that is the case. Toyota ran out of tax credits, yet the Prius is still doing fine. I think the popularity of that car proves that the tax credit helped, but it is not the final deciding factor that leads to continued sales.
As to the $35K base price issue, you may see some deposits returned, but probably few. People tend to understand that a base price is almost nonexistent on new cars, regardless of who makes them. How many base MSRP cars actually get produced by any manufacturer, and who actually buys those stripped models? That is just not a large market, and consumers understand how pricing works, for the most part.
Love it or hate it, Tesla is doing fine.
In Vancouver at the moment, you’d be hard pressed to find an EV to buy. The demand is that large, because the cost of ownership now compares to ICE.
The current status item for the doctors of the hospital I work in is a Tesla. Most likely it is leased by their practice, and replaced a german luxury car.
If you like EVs by all means go buy one – take advantage of getting some of my ( and every other tax payers) money without stealing it yourself. Use the “free” electricity at the (now shrinking) number of public charging stations (that once again you let the government steal for you). But don’t fool yourself into thinking you’re saving the planet. The electricity has to come from somewhere and that “somewhere” is emitting tons and tons of carbon, the vehicle has to come from somewhere, be made of stuff, and moved to where you can buy it – once again, processes that generate tons and tons and tons of carbon. I’m not an anti-tech Luddite – I think developing new technology is the only viable way to decrease the carbon load humans are adding to our atmosphere – and I’m not an anti-Tesla “hater” either, EVs are very interesting pieces of tech – but thinking that their going to replace the I/C powered vehicle wholesale because rent-seeking Californians are buying them is a fantasy. Until we develop a more “carbon-neutral” method to produce electricity and battery technology that’s environmentally friendly and way, way more efficient than we currently use, the energy density and ease of utilization of oil-based fuels will keep EVs at the fringes.
John, you’re going to need to explain to me how a roof of solar panels is emitting “tons of carbon dioxide”. Or how a municipality’s large solar array is doing the same. Or how even in a worst case scenario a centrally located fossil-fuel burning power plant is LESS efficient broken down to a personal end user’s basis than an individual little power plant in either a home or a vehicle. It simply isn’t.
The power doesn’t need to be free to be competitive. Gasoline certainly isn’t and has never been free. I don’t own a singe electric vehicle, in fact I own four gasoline powered vehicles, none of which could even remotely be termed an economy car and two gasoline mowers as well as one gasoline powered trimmer. I’d say the time I spend at the gas station is probably the least productive part of my days and the one thing I would happily give up forever, it’s just not that exciting of an activity for me. When the time comes to replace any of the above items, if there is something available on the market that works to replace them functionally at a similar or up to 30% greater cost, then I’ll likely move that way.
The old canard about “the vehicle has to come from somewhere, be made of stuff, and moved to where you can buy it” is irrelevant, it applies to ANY vehicle, no matter how it’s powered, so it’s a moot point. It was probably better applied a hundred and twenty years ago when the alternative to buying a car built in a factory was birthing your own horse from your existing stock.
Mining for battery components may in fact be non-environmentally friendly, however drilling for oil isn’t either. The difference is the battery can be (and is) recycled. The burned oil isn’t.
As far as your tax dollars go, well, I didn’t personally vote for a special break for EV adopters. But if it’s there and if I can use it without going out of my way, I’d be a moron not to. I also didn’t vote to send our troops to “Go and take their oil” (Iraq) or condone the killing of innocent individuals in order to “lower oil prices” (S.A. this week). Better to use those tax dollars to purchase something like a Tesla that is produced in the US by Americans with batteries also built here and powered by fuel (electricity) that is produced here than go and fight another senseless war. And I’m not even a particular fan of Tesla!
No, electric vehicles won’t replace ICE vehicles wholesale immediately. But I think they will within a generation or two as our youngers realize there is a viable alternative to the status quo. Just look at the gains made in literally the last ten years. From ZERO to a (very) conservative 5% in California this year, the US’s largest auto market. That’s one in 20, not at all insignificant and hardly “fringe”, and more important is the growth rate.
Actually, here’s a better way to demonstrate what 5% is – Last year over 17 million vehicles were sold in the US. Of that total, the Ford F-Series sold almost 900,000 units. That’s about 5%. Nobody would say the Ford F-Series is a “fringe” player in the US auto market.
John, you made me smile this morning too. Thanks! 🙂
Setting all emotions concerning “save the earth” jazz aside and looking at the purchase of an EV from a practical and cost-effective PoV, I’m afraid that where I sit (Austria) it still makes no sense. I’m actually a low mileage driver currently and most of that is done over short distances (although when I decide to go somewhere in the EU it’s not unknown for me to cover 600 miles at a stretch – I hate planes), so an EV could be on the cards when the time comes to replace my Mazda 3 in a couple of years. So occasionally, I check up on what Tesla is doing and at first sight its 3 looks very interesting. The local outlet is starting to take orders and at a tad under €40K it’s almost tempting – until you realize what you get is Tesla’s equivalent of a stripper. If you want the longer range battery, before you know it we’re talking about €60K, an insane price for a car in that segment. And then I think about having to get a charging point (between €600-€1000) which includes getting past the zoning rules and the other apartment owners (like many Europeans, I live in a flat). So the idea of waiting to see how the new Mazda 3 (which promises to have very low fuel consumption) does retains its attractiveness.
But I shall keep my mind open.
One more thing: from the European PoV I think Tesla has waited a bit too long to start its offensive. Here most of the competitors are now fully awake to the threat and will be offering more and more compatible models, and Tesla _here_ does not have the koodos the usual suspects have, right or wrong. The Model 3 – for the reasons I mentioned – is not attractive to most potential buyers and, by the time the small cross arrives here, it may be too late; it will be just one of many.
Never said a word about free electricity, nor US foreign policy, nor the methods used to produce petroleum based fuels, nor the use of solar panels – you managed to put an entire Thanksgiving Day’s worth of words in my mouth. The likelihood of EVs becoming the majority vehicle on US roads is still, regardless of proponents’ on either side of the discussion feelings, completely dependent on developing the technology to match the energy density of petroleum based fuels, in an economically viable way, with battery and charging technology. As I said above, without a technology based (and, hopefully, market-based) set of solutions, the amount of carbon added to the atmosphere by human activity will continue to increase. Until EVs (and the bulk of of our industrial processes) are powered by electricity from more carbon-neutral sources, buying an expensive car is a very small part of the solution. A stylish, interesting and innovative car but a game changer? We’ll see.
“The electricity has to come from somewhere and that “somewhere” is emitting tons and tons of carbon”. Your statement is what I was referring to when I brought up solar as a viable, popular, existing power source for many.
Current US foreign policy is just as beholden to and financed by “your” tax dollars, same source as the (limited) incentives for EV ownership but being used that way in perpetuity. Thus the inclusion of it since you left out the corresponding costs in regard to internal combustion engined vehicles.
The amount of carbon being added to the atmosphere by human activity can certainly be reduced, but not if people and governments stick their head in the sand and refuse to acknowledge science and take steps (or push processes) to reduce it. If nothing else and in spite of the latter portion of that prior sentence, it can definitely be reduced on an individual household level which is what we are seeing here. Someone who needs or more realistically, “decides to buy as 17 million did in the US last year” a new vehicle and then purchases a new electric vehicle instead of a new ICE vehicle and then fuels it from their own solar panels is miles ahead of everyone else. Those that fuel it from the electrical grid whose power is produced in bulk form using practically ANY form of fuel is still producing less emissions per person than producing your own internal combustion power on an individual (single engine) basis. Technology often will not be produced and improved without (often mandated) demand for it. See Safety Belts, Emission Control Devices etc for examples.
As far as “saving the planet” goes, that was what you implied people that buy EV’s do it for when you said “But don’t fool yourself into thinking you’re saving the planet” right before explaining that powering the EV will emit tons and tons of carbon while overlooking non-carbon producing solutions that are in use and actually work. But in any case, it’s a start. And in case it wasn’t clear I was not speaking specifically in regard to Tesla. A Nissan, Chevy, or Hyundai EV can/could provide the same benefit and doesn’t have to be “expensive”. According to Kelley Blue Book’s latest figures, the average transaction price of a 2018 Ford F-150 is $47,174. If 5% of all of the country’s buyer’s this year didn’t find that figure too expensive, then I don’t think that any vehicle priced less than that (as with almost every electric car bar Tesla and some low volume models) should objectively be termed “expensive” although on an individual purchaser’s basis that may vary. “Economically viable” is very different things to different people. It’s not like everyone decides to buy a Corolla even though it’s probably economically viable for many of them.
The battery technology is there, each of those three makers has or is about to introduce a vehicle for sale with 200mile or more range for a lot less than the average transaction price of the single most popular vehicle for sale in the US market today.
The charging technology is there too for the most part for the vast majority of the country’s population centers so far. I have several plugs in my garage, I can easily add another higher powered circuit. Yes not everyone has a garage. Then again I don’t have a gas pump in mine. I’d rather fill up in my garage but currently do it at the local station in exchange for money. If you can’t charge an EV at home or work, then I guess you’ll have to pay someone money for the privilege, just like most people do now with gas, it’s the same thing. It’s also easy and cheap for a gas station (oh, the irony) to add charging stations to their current infrastructure as Shell for example is doing in Europe. They realize there is a demand and that they can profit from that demand, nobody is going to a Shell station solely for the burrito selection in the mini-market.
I hasten to add that I am by no means suggesting everyone run out and buy an EV, not at all – That’s up to the individual. I don’t have one, I don’t have solar either and while I replaced my lightbulbs with LED’s I waited until the old ones burned out before replacing them (and am amazed by the reduction in electricity I am using when tracking it year by year). But I am absolutely willing to refute arguments against them that don’t make sense or are extremely one-sided, I don’t believe I was off track at all or added anything in to your original comment besides maybe the facts I believe you left out that represented the other side of your view.
Tesla has already changed the game. There are more electric cars being introduced now and being developed than ever before with lesser forms of electrification being added to others left and right. The majority of the holdup is the baggage and sunk costs that the traditional makers have that they are having trouble letting go of.
Where I live, the electricity comes from our huge rivers. It is completely renewable. Oil is not.
Jeez, electric rivers, huh? Do the fish come out fried?
I am indeed tired of hearing about the meteoric rise of the TessleAre, except, it are, and won’t ever be ain’t.
It’s a shift in automotivedom as big as the recent universal coming of the Net is in society, which itself is a societal shift the historians rightly call revolutionary. And like any such time in history, knowing which way is your head and which your toes becomes hard to know.
It all gets further murked-up by the personality of the founder, who’s someone I personally would invite to a long dinner but probably strangle by the end of an uninvited week’s stay.
Even if the market penetration is considered solely as a chunky bite into the long-established hierarchy of a powerful industry, the rise and rise of the T is an amazing achievement, one which will whizz past subsidization without a blink.
As to the long term environmental implications of numberless Li electric cars without profound changes in power generation, that’s a whole ‘nother kettle of sustainably-caught fish.
Tesla not founded by Elon Musk btw….
Ah, so I see. But the Musk scent is spread so thoroughly over the enterprise you’d forgive an ordinary plonker like myself for thinking so.
It will be interesting to watch this as the Federal tax credits expire, particularly outside of California, where weather is extremely friendly to electrics.
If the company can wrestle its operational issues under control I see the electric having a lot of room for growth. As much as we talk about the tax credits juicing demand, it is also hampered by range limits (especially in cold climates) and a thin infrastructure to support long-distance travel. With continued battery development and better travel support I could see a lot of people going this direction.
I’ll raise two points –
1. Norway (Norway!) has a climate that is also quite unlike California and electrics seem to work quite well there so I don’t think the range thing is that big of a deal for *most* users. At least 30% of the states have weather as good (I assume you mean hot and sunshiny, disregarding humidity) as California.
2. Very few families have only one vehicle in their driveway. While it is nice that EVERY vehicle be able to cross the country at a moment’s notice with minimal refueling stops, it’s simply not a realistic requirement for *most* people.
The vast majority of my own driving is done within a 20-mile range of my home. A car with a range of 100 miles would fit about 95% of my days driving, if cold weather were to somehow cut that range in half (which it does not) it would still work. If I want to go further I would simply use one of the other vehicles in the fleet as it is unlikely that all the fleet users would have an independent need to go beyond the range at the same time.
Jim, you’ve put your finger on a key fact about EV range. I really don’t care about range once I have enough.
I’ve been driving EVs daily for several years now. My Fiat’s range is 80 to 100 miles depending on driving and conditions. I’ve never come anywhere near that in daily use, not even once. So issues like cold weather don’t matter at all.
We still have our hybrid Prius for trips out of the metro area, so we’re still burning gas on those occasions. That’s maybe 10% of my total mileage tops, and it gets at least 40 mpg, so between the EV and the hybrid we’re burning a tenth as much gasoline as we’d be burning without electric technology.
As for the energy to recharge the EV, we’re lucky enough to have solar panels on our roof, plus we’re on a renewables-only plan with our electric utility.
I think my perfect range that would cover literally 99% of my demands without any need to ever recharge “off-site” would be around 150-175 miles and very comfortably 200. The most frequent longer trips I take would be to the airport and back (130 miles roundrip), Denver itself (also 130) and Laramie WY (140 round trip.). There are almost no new electrics coming on the market with less than that and some of the earlier ones are now getting bumped up with a longer range (Leaf in 2019). The other 1% of trips in a year to visit inlaws at Xmas or go to a CC meetup and maybe a couple of other events outside that range (so realistically 4-5x a year maximum??) would easily be handled by one of the other vehicles and barring that a rental car – which we already do sometimes even with our existing fleet due to various reasons
Solar was looking interesting to me a few years ago but just doesn’t pencil out here for me anymore, not with power available at under 7c for the vast majority of the day and night. We spend more at Starbucks than we do on electricity, I’d (no kidding) be better off buying a high end espresso machine.
I agree once you have enough range for your expectations more doesn’t really help. Which is why I’m surprised that more automakers aren’t following in Teslas footsteps with a range of ranges. Why buy 200 when 100 will do? The only good reason I can see is to combat the inevitable range degradation, which means you should be getting a longer life with the needed range. Might not mean much to the person who keeps their car 3-6 years but it could be a significant difference at 10yrs and 150k on the clock.
I could see eventually be desirable to have one with say a 100 mile range and the other with the 250+ range. On most days either driver would have more than enough range with either car and it would be highly unlikely that both people would need the longer range at the same time.
Don’t bring up Norway unless you also mention the fact that they heavily incentivize purchases of EVs. What do I mean by “heavily incentivize?”
This:
Exemption from 25% VAT on purchase.
No import or purchase taxes.
Toll roads and ferry fees waived.
Low annual road tax.
Free municipal parking.
50% reduced company car tax.
Access to bus and HOV lanes.
Exemption from 25% VAT on leasing.
you can’t just say Teslas are awesome “Because Norway” when Norway slants the market so heavily in their favor. a base Honda Civic costs $40k in Norway, and I don’t even know if that includes VAT.
I didn’t say “because Norway” but I did use it as an example to demonstrate that if electric cars didn’t work in the winter they wouldn’t sell in Norway. I also didn’t say Tesla’s are awesome.
Norwegians, no matter how incentivized they are, aren’t going to spend money on something that doesn’t work. They may be buying MORE of them due to the relatively attractive price that they might otherwise but that wasn’t a point I was making which I think you will see if you re-read the comment.
Norwegians are buying electrics and have been for some time. They may or may not be heavily incentivized to do so. However the electrics clearly work in a cold climate, Norwegians aren’t just buying large stationary driveway ornaments because they are cheaper than a gasoline powered functional vehicle.
Anyway, you have your belief and I have mine, I realize I can’t get you to change yours. And that’s OK too.
Jim – EVs work in cold Norway because the government gives EV buyers big tax breaks and other benefits that are worth between $25,000 on a Leaf to $100,000 on a Tesla S. The towing businesses also do a nice trade on very cold days towing dead EVs to repair or charging stations, and many Tesla owners have unhappily discovered their cars won’t actually get to their mountain cabins without stopping for a recharge because of greatly reduced winter range. So the Norwegian “love” affair with EVs is more about the tax breaks and use of bus lanes than how great EVs are in cold weather.
You should reread the comments above regarding range, functionality, and the fact that EV’s actually do function in cold weather. Tax breaks and incentives are completely irrelevant to the context of my comment that you were responding to.
Tesla’s and other EV’s still sell in Norway, I assume Norwegians are intelligent enough to read and educate themselves about how cold weather may *affect* their vehicles and plan accordingly. Maybe some do run out of juice. The same way there’s always at least one idiot on the commute here that runs out of gas even though there’s been an orange light glowing at him for the last fifty miles and he’s passed a dozen gas stations. However, as you point out and I believe I mentioned as well above, they do not work for every use case in every instance.
I understand you aren’t a fan and that’s okay, I realize I won’t convince you otherwise.
The Tesla sales freight train keeps on chugging. I am not surprised by these latest sales numbers. The Tesla checks all the right boxes. It’s fast, it is luxurious, it performs very well, it looks good (to most), and most importantly its very trendy. As I have always said, a car is a person’s biggest fashion accessory, and the Tesla is definitely the latest and greatest. So even though the lack of incentives may slow sales a bit, I suspect the train will keep on chugging and many people will pay the premiums required to have one of these cars. In this province Toronto seems to be pretty on par with the coasts in the US when it comes to vehicle purchases. And Teslas are becoming pretty common place around the GTA. The colder climate certainly doesn’t seem to be causing any issues or deterring purchases.
What a lot of naysayers don’t get is electric vehicles are better for a lot of folks, particularly urban/suburban folks. Smooth, quiet, powerful, very low maintenance, no dealing with the riff-raff at the gas station, etc.
I have no doubt that Tesla and other electric vehicles will take a larger portion of the market. I also think ICE vehicles aren’t going anywhere either. Like a lot of other things the split is going to probably be on the urban / rural divide due to the difference in transportation needs.
I’m looking forward to mainstream non-luxury electric vehicles.
I’ll stay out of the Tesla discussion but as a lifelong Californian who is old enough to have seen the rise of Japanese imports (on top of the already popular European imports) as a kid, and of course later Korean, the figures for Buick, Cadillac, Lincoln and Chrysler don’t surprise me a bit. However, it’s still eye-opening to see how even Porsche and Land Rover are beating those semi-premium US brands that don’t have a truck in their lineup to bolster sales. Heck, Fiat, Maserati and Alfa combined are a threat to those domestics. Imagine predicting THAT in 1990.
Although I will offer the opinion that domestic passenger cars hadn’t yet become completely irrelevant here by the late ‘80’s. I distinctly remember seeing numbers then, perhaps just for the SF Bay Area, that showed the aero T-Bird as the top selling car, at least briefly ahead of Camry, Accord, Civic, etc. and there certainly were many T-Birds, plus Tauruses, on the roads then.
Ford was the exception, for a while. I might have noted that. But it didn’t last all that long.
I just bought my last gasoline car and the only reason I didn’t get an EV is that I don’t have space for two vehicles. I needed a car that could do everything and go everywhere. We are still at a net negative carbon footprint in that my wife only takes transit to work now, as it is a lot cheaper and easier for her.
Old guys can mumble and moan but the market is going to change in a revolutionary manner in a very short time. I do find a tendency from my southern neighbours to think their situation is the same as the rest of the world’s, and those seven billion people don’t matter.
They do, and there is no way cities like Mumbai and Beijing can continue to exist with the kind of air pollution they now suffer.
So the USA can put its head in the sand and pretend nothing is happening here-but just look at the price of oil. I wouldn’t invest a dime in fossil fuels, but I do invest in renewables. That’s where the future lies.
Given the level of misinformation presented to the public by corporate media and leadership, it’s no wonder many average people don’t realize how dire things are. Corporate, moneyed interests, and lobby groups (in the US and globally) have been controlling the message the public receives for decades.
The report released on Friday was enough reason for overdue global action:
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/23/climate/us-climate-report.html
It has been downplayed (or hidden) for decades.
We have some sort of balance here in Canada with the CBC. There’s a reason the CRAP hates it; they can’t stand a government media organisation which holds the government to account. That is exactly why is necessary, in my opinion.
There is also another huge difference between Canada than in the USA. Our leaders are the 40-60 age range, by and large. They are not by nature averse to technology as the 60-80 age group that runs the USA. There is also enormously more diversity in our leadership.
I find it quite amusing when I hear the parroting of silliness a talking head on TV has been paid to say.
I would much rather pay BC Hydro to power my car than Exxon. The profits will be invested in British Columbians.
Agree with your reasons Len. However, I think the overwhelming difference between our countries is that we have caps in Canada on how much corporations and lobby groups can contribute to political campaigns.
Sadly, I think a large number of representatives in the US are bought off by powerful lobby groups. The oil lobby being a biggie.
In Canada, we have caps on campaign contributions, we have caps on election spending. And Elections Canada is a fully independent body managing our elections. Big money is not such an influence on lawmaking.
Imagine the embarrassment of being Australian. We have the independent body managing elections and campaigns limits AND compulsory proportional voting, but 70%+ of the media market is owned by the delightful 88y.o. Rupert Murdoch (please know we apologise profusely for cursing the world with his presence). The disgraceful result is that what is already the driest continent on earth has spent 10 years doing nothing, zip, about the issue, and the political leader class were all under 55. Big industry is not able here to “buy off” as blatantly as in the US either, but it helps to have A Powerful Friend to squeeze and mold policy through his media domination.
Rant complete. Feeling better. Thankyou.
@ Justy: I think the MSM has stopped non-political reporting long time ago and has descended into a – mostly – propaganda apparatus. Downunder it’s that particular side of the political map which controls the MSM, in other countries – the other.
But there is a thing called the internet and a careful perusal of the information found there will get one to the bottom of things. And last but not least, never underestimate what your eyes are telling you. Oftentimes they provide the most accurate and reliable source of information there is.
I think there are a lot of people like Canucklehead. They find EVs interesting and perhaps even really appealing. But when they buy an expensive new car they need it to do everything. An EV may be able to handle 80% of the need, but an older cheaper 2nd car can do that. Many who buy new do so to safely take that occasional unexpected 600 mile trip.
As the range of EVs goes up and their costs come down (as I fully expect will happen) more and more will be able to make an EV work.
The other interesting thing I expect is that as older used EVs come onto the market they will make great choices for short local commutes. A 60 mile range on an old EV that could once go 200 miles would be perfectly fine for many folks if the initial coat was low enough.
A few weeks ago we were returning home from LA, northbound on I-5 just starting up the Grapevine north of Santa Clarita, when I spotted an eGolf in the slow lane with the trucks, going about 45 mph with its flashers on. “Uh-oh” I thought, doubting that there would be a charging station in Gorman, maybe not until Bakersfield? We stopped at the rest area just north of the summit, then repassed the Golf as the freeway leveled out near the new outlet malls. The eGolf wouldn’t be my choice for that drive, but at least its battery had more range than our bladders.
By the way, the Golf’s pace and lane choice reminded me of a trip I took almost 50 years ago in a 48 hp diesel Rabbit (the Golf’s name then in the US), also in I-5 but up to Oregon. However the range was a bit better …
It is not surprising Tesla sells a lot of vehicles in California. A quick check of their web site shows 31 locations in CA. Want to buy one in New York? Good luck if you live north of Westchester County. How about Northern New England? Nope.
I think Tesla is going to have to franchise dealers if it wants to continue to grow. They will also need additional factory space. I can’t wait for the scramble to offer tax incentives for a new factory like the recent Amazon headquarters project.
Couldn’t they just add more “Galleries” – one each in Buffalo, Syracuse, and Albany and cover the majority of the population centers in the state that way if that’s the deterrent? Or are they just going for the low hanging fruit in the MAJOR population centers? Nobody is going to open a Tesla franchise in a small rural village, just like they wouln’t likely have a Mercedes dealer either.
If you look at the interactive map they are clustered around the major population centers in CA as well. Here in CO we only have three outlets, all within the Denver Metro area but there is no shortage of Teslas up here at the Northern end of the state. I believe my closest one is 75 miles away.
https://www.tesla.com/findus?v=2&bounds=40.98290840835668%2C-98.71654192117194%2C30.679144963998493%2C-128.35765520242194&zoom=6&filters=store
It could be worse. You could live in Michigan where up until recently Tesla could not legally sell cars. Regardless, I routinely see several Models E, S and X around the Grand Rapids area where I live. My suspicion is that most of those were sold in Chicago (much like Fiats around here) and brought over the state lines.
Now that Tesla is able to sell in Michigan, we may see even more here. There was a similar situation when Mini came back; at first you could only buy them in the Detroit area, but it wasn’t too long before Grand Rapids had a Mini franchise. I imagine the same thing will happen with Tesla.
This may sound like a silly question but what do you do if home charging for your EV isn’t an option? People who rent or live in condos can’t add charging stations to their homes.
Not silly at all. realistically, EVs are not yet practical for everyone, or even far from it. Having to charge an EV other than at home is doable, but hardly ideal, unless one has a charging station available at work.
I assume that with time, there will be demand and/or incentives to wire apartment garages with chargers. Many condos have already done that; there’s little doubt that a condo owner could do it with approval as long as they foot the bill. It’s becoming increasingly common.
If one is stuck with curbside parking, that is of course a problem. I do see the occasional cord here, but its not really ideal. I’ve seen some things that protect the cord and keep folks from tripping. But that still might not be ideal in some neighborhoods.
Realistically widespread/universal EV adoption is going to take a bit of time, perhaps quite a bit. That’s a given.
Clearly if an EV is a big enough priority for a potential buyer, they have some options, but these might not appeal to all. That’s a given too. They’re not for everyone, yet.
Starting in 2015, every new building in British Columbia had to be equipped with both 220V level 2 chargers and a level 3 charge capability, which I believe is 660V. It means considerably more power coming into the building. Since we already have Smart Meter tech, it is only a matter of time until we get time of use metering. I have no problem with that, either.
The main reason I don’t have an EV now is I can’t easily charge it at home and the charging infrastructure is still lagging. It is, however, becoming much more available.
For what it’s worth, it’s possible to mount a charging point in a condo’s attached parking spot here in Austria but this is subject to zoning and safety rules AND the neighbors voting to allow you to do so, which can be a huge hassle if you have the “wrong” neighbors. And the same applies to fitting solar panels on the roof. My parking spot is MINE (that is, it’s a part of my household, not joint and several property) so I would have it easier than some but still.
There are public charging stations. Some employers also offer charging while at work. Some/many parking lots have them, many shopping centers, and VW’s fairly large Electrify America rollout will be mainly located in WalMart lots from what I understand. https://www.electrifyamerica.com/our-plan
Some gas stations are adding them (which seems all kinds of logical, right?
In fact, some condo developments, especially newer ones, are incorporating charging stations specifically as a draw for tenants. Older units may eventually add them depending on ownership and demand, that’d be up to the owner. The next time you look for a condo ask if they have charging stations. If enough people ask, t’ll happen. Even for the people with the garage, when those people move, the charger or at least the charging infrastructure stays behind with the house making it that much easier for the next person that buys the house. If I had a tenant in my rental house that was interested in it I’d certainly consider adding a charger, it adds value as well as differentiation. If a prospective tenant with an electric vehicle was looking for a house or condo to rent, one with a charger in place would be more desirable and worth more to that tenant.
If one has an electric vehicle with a 238 mile range (like a Bolt), once full, that would take many people through a week of driving before needing a complete charge. Many people just charge up though when they happen to be parked near a charger to “brim it” while they are shopping or whatever.
For people that street park there are options being studied that include using existing light poles as mounting points for charging stations.
Yes, it’s potentially a bit more of a challenge currently but improving steadily.
I’m not seeing charging access in new condos here in Seattle a place where EVs are so popular that there is a used car lot that only sells vehicles with a plug. https://www.paramountmotorsnw.com/inventory
Here’s a 3 year old thread that gives several examples in the greater Seattle area.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Seattle/comments/3a3yzm/electric_vehicle_charging_apartments/
I guess these are apartment rentals instead of owned condos but I’m guessing they exist in some condo developments as well.
The fossil fuel industry spends billions to influence both political parties. Representatives are simply not going to make the large scale investments in green energy infrastructure that would advance the schedule making alternative energy more affordable and accessible to the masses, as long as US representatives are accepting billions, and appear highly accountable to the fossil fuel lobby.
This is in spite of the overwhelming evidence carbon created by burning fossil fuels is the biggest contributor to greenhouse gases.
As a Canadian, it appears to be similarly why the US doesn’t have universal healthcare. The effect of lobby groups on representatives. The general public appears stunningly apathetic and/or not informed.
This is an interesting article, I live in Northeast Kansas and electric vehicles are something of a rarity; a couple of weeks ago at a local Walmart I parked next to a Chevrolet Spark, I was asking the owner how he liked it-he was really enthusiastic about it and said he would never buy an ICE powered automobile again. He stated that the metro KC area was getting more 240 volt recharging stations and a few 400 volt recharging stations. He said with the 400 Volt station if the battery was half discharged it could recharge in 5 minutes. Electrics are starting to look like the wave of the future.
Yes EVs are very nice to drive, with smooth quiet power that is very intoxicating, but the same was true 110 years ago when EVs were vying with steam and gasoline power as the dominant source of vehicle motivation. Despite their nice driving qualities, the problem that very few here seem to understand is that EV demand is driven almost entirely by government subsidies. EV fuel is relatively cheap in large part because electricity isn’t taxed as a motor fuel, but do you think the state and federal bureaucracies are going to continue that policy if EVs truly become popular? The environmental benefits of EVs are almost entirely based on having clean sources of electricity, but the cleaner the electricity the higher its price (see the very high electricity prices in CA, Germany, Denmark, and Australia – all of whom have heavily subsidized/mandated renewables). Lifecycle analysis finds that EVs are not cleaner than low emission gasoline or hybrid cars in places that rely heavily on coal (like much of the industrial midwest, and India, China, UK, Germany). Double the price of electricity by forcing renewable adoption and then double it again with “motor fuel taxes” and see how attractive the EV running costs are. $10K in state and federal tax EV credits is driving a lot of sales of the low end models, which have inflated prices without the subsidy and yet are unprofitable for their manufacturers (hence the prices can’t be lowered). If the tax credits dry up, so will a lot of EV sales, and last I looked both CA and the Feds are running huge budget deficits and I suspect as some point some politicians are going to ask whether it is good to use of debt to subsidize the sale of EVs to upper-middle class and rich people. And when the car-pool lanes get jammed with Teslas and Leafs, do you think the government is going to continue letting EVs get free access? Take away that benefit and a lot more EV sales dry up. EVs have very high prices if not subsidized, provide non-existent profits for manufacturers and dealers, and in most markets provide minimal or no environmental benefit – hard to see how they will move very quickly beyond niche status anytime soon.
I would love to have an all electric car. It is not because i am a Greenie that spends his day extolling the virtues of kale to every passerby. I am a techie that loves new technology.
However i live in a townhouse where my reserve parking space is not near my home. So an electric car is not viable at this time. (I like the Hyundai Ionic and maryland is a state where the Ionic Electric is on sale)
However if the technology is developed that can charge a electric car fully with in 5 to 10 mins then I would be interested. Especially if they offer these chargers at charging stations(or gas stations) then it might make it viable for me. (paying for a Kilovolt should be cheaper then a gal of gas)
I guess it is a wait and see thing
environmental benefits aside, what i like about tesla is that it the first american car brand in a long time to be an international hit. it shows that our country can still make innovative products. anything that is designed, built and exported from the usa that’s used for peaceful purposes is a good thing in my book.
Oh yes, amen & halleluja to that, brother. Well, brother-across-the-Pacific-brother, but you get my drift. (And the “amen”etc ain’t religious, but now I’m floating off topic).
And you make an excellent point about Tesla. US cars, then US-style cars on a smaller scale, were once considered the best you could buy here, and rightly so. They were the right cars for the job. But it’s been perhaps 50 years since made-in-US options were taken seriously (not at all helped by the last 10 yrs of ChryCo stuff here, utterly awful rep).
But now the Tess Lar is very much a wanted item, and it’s wanted because it’s damn good. Something I (rather awkwardly) had sort-of forgotten America could still do.
I think I mentioned it here earlier, but I don’t get the EV hate on websites. Admittedly, back when the 2nd gen Prius was being promoted as the Second Coming, I wasn’t a fan. What I really objected to was the high incentives and the perks attached to the cars. I did think the cars were extremely complex compared to the then-mileage champ, VW TDIs.
In the intervening years, I’ve come to see that the hybrid cars are rather reliable. They’ve become so mainstream that they barely register a notice anymore. We’ve also seen what has happened to VW since then, too. Having learned something from that episode, I’ve tried to have an open mind concerning EVs. Initially, I wasn’t too wild about Tesla, but have since changed my mind. They have a ton of cars out there and they seem to work well for those that have them. Before long, EVs will become mainstream, just like hybrids did. There will be a tipping point where it just “clicks” for everyone. And then, there will be little notice of them.
An EV doesn’t work for you? No problem. We still have dozens of models of ICE powered vehicles made by a large number of manufacturers. I doubt that ICE cars will go away anytime soon. Little of that has to do with politics, most with practicality. I get that some folks have claimed that EVs are the Second Coming and will save the earth from whatever horrible outcome has been predicted. I get that Elon Musk is a controversial figure and promotes too much. But how else do you get mindshare?
While EVs may not be the solution for everyone I could see them working for people like my younger daughter, who has little patience for the upkeep a regular ICE car requires. Unlike her father, she’s not a motorhead and the car won’t be a status symbol. She mostly needs a commuter mobile, something decent sized like a compact with enough room for a couple of friends and a week’s worth of groceries. Even five years ago, I would have recommended something small, like a Chevy Sonic or similar. Now I’m thinking a similarly sized EV would work better for her in her situation.
I have a conundrum concerning our next new vehicle. On one hand, I really want a Challenger R/T Scat Pak. OTOH, I want an EV of some kind. Realistically, if I can convince my other half, something like a Chevy Volt or even a Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid would work. We have a garage with 220/240V service, so charging should not be an issue. We both have short commutes, so no problem there. I think that the Pacifica’s or Volt’s genset will give us the end to any “range anxiety” issues that may crop up. However, she wants a SUV and I don’t, so there’s the real problem.
Electric cars were ridiculous little golf carts for about 100 years, socially identified with nerds, loonies, and commiehomo lefties. Self starting and increasingly efficient and reliable gasoline engine technology made gasoline cars obviously superior, except for the stuff that comes out of the back and the enormous cost in blood and treasure to ensure access to the go juice. Our lives are organized around the capabilities and limitations of that essential technology. That technology gap is rapidly closing, which impacts a lot of basic social assumptions as simple as where to park a personal car overnight and as complex as whether to spend blood and treasure on go juice.
is the technology gap rapidly closing? gasoline cars are less expensive, can be refueled in minutes and have greater range. there really needs to be a big improvement in battery technology, if electric vehicles hope to dominate.
with the current technology, i think an electric passnger vehicle mostly makes sense as a second car or a commuter car.
I think the tech is closing the gap. Once they come out with a quick charge charging unit that can replenish the battery in less then 10 minutes and make them easily available then the electric car will be there.
In the beginning to power a internal combustion engine car, you had to mix a lot of the chemical up yourself to create the fuel needed for powering the car (see Bertha Benz’s automobile journey)
Then came fueling stations and now cars could be driven great distances.
Once Old Henry Ford came around with his lower priced cars the car’s popularity exploded. Before Ford, the car was a play thing for the rich and had Ford not come along, the car might have remained a niche item.
The electric car was actually more popular then the gas car up until the electric starter.
I see the same with electric cars.Once you get a network of high speed chargers in place then they will become popular. I actually see high speed chargers being installed at gas stations. This is a win win situation because the infrastructure(buildings etc) is in place and all they need is to add the electric “pumps” there is no huge expense needed like buying land and putting up a building. It also helps the gas station to make money to offset some of the loss of revenue from gas sales.
The prices of EV cars are coming down. I was at the Hyundai dealer having them fix a small thing on my Elantra and they had a couple of Hyundai Ioniq electric cars for sale. With tax credits, the cars come out to about $25000-$27000 out the door. The Ioniq comes with a lifetime guarantee on the batteries. As more and more EV arrive, the cost of them gets cheaper (see flat screen televisions for an example of costs going lower)
As for range, most Americans only go the equivalent of 20miles to about 50 miles per day. An electric car with a range of 150 or 200 miles is more then enough for most folks.
The next 10 years should be interesting