Although they’re only some 44-48 years apart, these two make a nice pairing to give an idea of the evolution of the best selling cars in the US in their times, and almost a half century apart. And of course it inspires speculation as to what the best selling car of 2058 will be like.
In principle, these two are more alike than different. The Camry represents the evolution of what a comfortable, roomy sedan is, but just much more so than the ’58 Chevy (this is a mildly customized one that has lost its rear doors). The Camry is of course faster, much more efficient, more comfortable, drastically better handling and decidedly more safe. But they’re both three-box sedans powered by gasoline IC engines with torque converter automatic transmissions.
The odds of that being the case in 2058 is not at all good. Already, the Toyota RAV4 is the best selling light passenger car, having surpassed the Camry. And the future is predicted to be one of electric and autonomous cars, almost certainly not in the three-box sedan format.
Is this the best-selling transportation pod of 2058? If so, will anyone cars what brand it is, other than who’s entertainment system is inside it?
Will “fun cars” still be available, or at least be allowed on public streets and highways? There’s little doubt in my mind that the benefits of autonomous cars that can platoon closely together will be very compelling in terms of traffic management in large, dense metropolitan cities. Maybe self-driving IC cars will be relegated to Sundays only, to drive to Cars and Coffee?
Predicting the future is always perilous. This autonomous and electric car of the future was predicted at about the same time as the ’58 Chevy hit the streets. It hasn’t quite happened yet, but there’s no doubt we’re a lot closer.
Some people are living out that electric autonomous future already, at their peril. This video (see it here), which clearly shows a UK Tesla driver sitting alone in the passenger seat while his Models S was rolling down the motorway, was proof enough to get him busted, and hard. An 18 month license suspension, 100 hours community service, 10 days of “rehabilitation” (driver’s ed?) and a £1,800 fine. It’s been assumed that Tesla’s Autopilot would not stay engaged if it sensed no one sitting in the seat or the seat belt off, but maybe a software update is in order. He presumably was still keeping a hand on the wheel. Maybe he was practicing to use his Tesla for rural mail delivery?
Ok, back to the matter at hand. Let’s hear how you feel about the future and 2058, for better or for worse.
As a geologist, I don’t think this world is anywhere close to kicking its dependency on petroleum. But I suspect that we will continue to see a steady increase in electrically powered personal transportation. The biggest limitations, of course, are cost and range. But the benefits of electric are many, provided we have a reliable energy grid and charging infrastructure. A friend of mine recently bought a Tesla. When I asked how she gets it serviced, given that the closest Tesla dealer is 150 miles away, she replied that with electric motors there are very few things that will fail, so it requires very little regular maintenance, other than brakes and tires. And there are already over 1200 charging stations in North America.
It’s interesting to note that the internal combustion engine has been the main source of power for personal transportation for well over 100 years. Perhaps we are due for a major technological shift, and 50 years from the the IC engine will be as much of a curiosity as the steam engine is to us today.
I concur. I was telling my wife just yesterday that IC-powered generators will have a place in this world for a very long time, ’cause if the power goes out, you’re left with whatever battery storage you might have onsite (which for almost everybody today is “none”). We may indeed reach a point where the majority of vehicles on our roads are full electric, but I suspect it will be at least a few decades from now. I can’t imagine it ever reaching a point where *everything* on the road is full autonomous.
Paul’s question above brings to mind a number of Syd Mead’s futurist concepts for cars…
Also, for service, Tesla is moving to a mobile service model. I can still take the model S in once a year to a Tempe, AZ service center (25 miles, and get a loaner, model S or X so far) but all other service is by an experienced technician in an MB Sprinter van. The first thing they do is to connect a laptop, pull codes (which are already on a server in Fremont, CA, Put the latest software update if necessary (directly from the pc, not the wireless network at the house) and make any small adjustments to windows, etc.
Works well.
My guess is that vehicle sharing will be a very significant factor in what is considered to be the best selling “car”.
What might be more interesting is who the (remaining) major players will be.
If the automous grid can’t cope with my flesh navigated IC car in the mix the six other days a week, then autonomous vehicles don’t work. Try and stop me, let’s see if the autonomous police interceptors can catch me 😉
One way or another I don’t feel our “50 years into the future” projections from 2018 will look any less comical to the people of 2068, to when we look back at the future predictions from 1958.
I think the most popular car will be a nice, safe, plastic lump of a CUV. One that drives itself and has no controls save for a screen in the center with no steering wheel.
I’ll turn 102 that year, I know that…..:-D.
I think some vehicles will be autonomous, Some will be electric vehicles. Some may be powered in ways we can’t even imagine now. And some will still be powered by fossil fuels (albeit many fewer than now).
There are always people out there who want to have fun driving, or want to drive fun vehicles. It wouldn’t surprise me if some hacker even figures out how to modify autonomous vehicles.
Or everything I just typed could be wrong.
My favorite prediction about the future was written in 1899; the author stated that by 1999, Manhattan would be buried in horse poop, given the growth of the horse population…..
There may well be some technological development that none of us see coming – just like that 1899 prediction.
Manhattan buried in horse poop? He was right!!!
It’s dead on accurate from a metaphorical standpoint
I expect two-box shapes will be the norm, with almost all the outdoorsy truckishness smoothed off so they’ll resemble hatchbacks and wagons more than CUVs (they’ll still be 65-70″ tall though). We’ll probably still be in an era of selectable full autonomy – all-or-nothing, no way of getting a Tesla Autopilot level of computer control – for privately owned cars but steering-wheelless models will be produced and sold mainly for fleet use.
In 50 years the internal combustion engine will be a relic. Electrics will prevail. But sports car aficionados need not worry, with 0-60 times under 5 seconds
#1- I want to know where the flying cars are we were promised back when the Jetsons were on TV?
re: autonomous future. My suspicion here, given the tremendous Corporate Support, is that the ultimate goal isn’t the replacement of people driven cars. Rather the substitution of the commercial truck drivers. Goods roll by ship, rail, and truck. I don’t see that changing, but the technology involved in those three different forms of transport should improve markedly.
re: electric. What we really need is a breakthrough in battery technology. Until then, the electric future will belong to urban areas only.
In 1886 or so, it was also stated “we only need a bit better battery, and then electric cars will prevail”.
And this was repeated in the 1930’s, 1960’s, 1980’s, 2000’s, and still now in 2018.
Im all for electric cars, but we have been waiting mighty long for that breakthrough already.
It’s always “just another 8-10 years”.
Bring back the Nucleon perhaps?
That’s all we need, flying cars with the drivers texting and applying makeup. You have it nailed though. Commercial trucking is the mega prize.
Agreed. Autonomy works best as a commercial application. It does also work as a way of augmenting mass transportation of humans, like buses. Oddly, those are also the types of vehicles that work best for non-ICE applications. Electric buses and trucks, being larger, have more room for batteries (under the floor of buses, etc) and drive more regular routes. Those make for a good use of autonomy and electrification.
Autonomy is also great for interstates, albeit not interstates that are used by inter-city or suburban commuters. Away from rush hour traffic, it makes sense for the best use of the highways for long distance travel. Once in the city, you need a driver that is more aware of humanity and the associated perils that a computer seems to miss.
Who knows, maybe GM predicted the future of cars back in the 1980’s with the Pontiac Trans Sport concept car?
I don’t expect the world to be weened off petrol by 2058.
I still don’t see flying cars
I also don’t see a lot of those crazy assed designed cars you see in every picture of the future or in future movies being out there ether. I suspect they will look a bit like today’s cars with a bit more sleekness.
I think most of the changes will be under the metal. Cars that drive themselves, stop when they sense something in the road and self parking cars. We are already seeing this now.
If they can overcome the range issue with batteries, then electric cars could become more popular and more prevalent on the roads. But if they can not be made to have a longer range then they will most likely be still playing second fiddle to gas cars.
I don’t see petrol cars being deposed anytime soon, despite the UK and France telling folks that new petrol cars will not be sold in those countries by 2020’s and that existing ones will be phased out soon after that. I cannot see that happening.
What the best selling car of 2058 looks like is really anybody’s guess. That is still way too far in the future for anybody to accurately predict. Nobody really knows what is going to be invented by that time and where technology is going to be. This reminds me of a funny story I heard years ago about a clerk in the British patent office who was advocating permanently closing the patent office because “everything that is ever going to be invented has already been invented”.
My uncle has this brilliant red Barchetta…
Yeah, but your prediction pushes the QOTD out to the year 2112. ?
In fifty years, I’ll be long dead. So I’m not really spending too much time worrying about what our personal transportation will be at that point. I’ll save my worries for the next 15-25 years, when technological and political development decide just how much more of a crochity old man I’ll become.
Unless, of course, things go horribly wrong or we really do run out of oil.
2 Chevys, 50 years apart:
https://youtu.be/fPF4fBGNK0U
Whichever company makes it (maybe Boeing or maybe Apple or maybe Wal Mart), it will be internal combustion using a petroleum sourced fuel.
The world economy only works with petroleum based energy because aviation and ocean cargo ships only work with it. Electricity will not support aircraft nor cargo ships. Nor will any other scheme; only carbon based fuels work for those most important forms of transport and world trade.
Cars, busses and trucks may be less important but because the infrastructure for carbon based IC engines will still be needed for aviation and marine applications, IC will still power our land based vehicles.
See Vaclav Smil on the subject; he knows.
But we have huge and mature infrastructure for generating and distributing electrical power, both fossil and increasingly renewables based. So a switch to all-electric, or hybrid IC-electric, is well within reason. Fuel cell, not so much. Fully autonomous may work in some circumstances, but for a heavy blizzard in the mountain West, or a dirt road in Baja? No thanks.
I’m old enough to remember when diesel cars came with a printed national directory of diesel fuel stations. Compared to making diesel fuel available at neighborhood gas stations, installing electric charging stations is a trivial effort.
Also, public charging stations are only useful when driving outside the daily vehicle range for EVs with home overnight charging.
PS – and in 1908 it was also an IC engined vehicle – Ford Model T.
My Dad had an interesting viewpoint on future predictions.
He was born in 1916 and died in 1996. He was a mechanic by trade so mechanical devices were of interest.
He talked about planes, coal power to steam to gas. He saw talking movies and television come alive and many others we take for granted.
When he was asked about what occoured in his life and was the future what he thought his reply was
“No. For every idea that worked there were three that never saw the light of day. For every one person that made money, a bunch more lost their shirts. If they couldn’t predict the future, who can?”
The best selling car is not a car. It’s a truck. There isn’t a single car in the Top 5. In 1958 the Chevy was the top selling vehicle. In 2017 the Camry was 6th, sales declined 11.8% from 2016. The sedan is dying. In 1958 the Chevy represented future automotive trends. Today the Camry represents the past.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2017/06/19/passenger-car-market-decline-a-big-concern-for-toyota-and-honda/
1. Ford F-series
2. Chevrolet Silverado
3. Ram Pickup
4. Toyota RAV4
5. Nissan Rogue
https://www.caranddriver.com/flipbook/the-best-selling-vehicles-of-2017-arent-all-trucks-and-suvs-just-most-of-them#21
” … in 1958 the Chevy represented future automotive trends.
But, the ’58 Chevy was a one year body style, a restyle of that shell for ’59 was cut, after the Chrysler “Forward Look” 1957’s. So, GM’s ’59 big cars were lower, longer and wider, aka more ‘futuristic’, making their 58’s suddenly look like a 48’s.
But, as we all know, there’s backlash against lower cars, and sales dropping like rock.
Political correctness will ensure the car of 2058 will be an electric version of a Trabant. A car for all, satisfying none, with a long long waiting period for delivery. I very much doubt I will still be here, as that year would mark my centenary… and if my prediction comes true, I would not want to be here anyway.
I am betting there will be less change in the best selling vehicle than we think.
That’s the most anyone will smile from driving a car in the future. They’ll probably be outlawed.
Based on current trends, this is what people will be driving in 2058.
Changing ownership trends will be reflected in the vehicle fleet when (if) autonomous vehicles are available. Today, more or less everyone of driving age owns a car, except for outliers (very young, very old, very poor, very urban). Autonomous vehicles charged by the trip, and home delivery, will move that line for many marginal users to stop owning personal vehicles. Their expectations will be based on price, comfort, and convenience. The vehicles that replace their personal vehicles will be mostly minimal electric powered personal transport pods and motorized filing cabinets for deliveries.
Autonomous vehicles charged by the trip probably will reduce the number of vehicles owned by households. A household may have one family vehicle, but it probably would make sense to rent a minimal transportation unit when needed to replace ownership of a second (or third) family vehicle. So that second/third vehicle will be replaced by a shared minimal transportation device/delivery vehicle.
Lots of people HATE owning and driving cars, even if they own fancy, fashionable cars like their peers. They’d spend the same money, or more, to be picked up and delivered by the minimal transportation device.
In my personal experience, lots of business travelers (esp young people) are learning that they prefer Uber to rental cars. Even if the cost is similar, they don’t want to be bothered with driving, navigating, or parking. They sit down and get out their phones. These are smart people who make good money -the prime market for fancy new cars– and they’re learning that they’re happier when someone else deals with the car for them. As long as it’s clean and it’s on time, it’s good enough. More transportation pods and home delivery.
Similarly, new drivers won’t immediately become new drivers. Instead, they’ll keep riding in autonomous vehicles instead of buying an old car, paying enormous insurance premiums, and worrying whether the car will start or how they’ll get around while it’s broken. They’ll probably never consider owning a vehicle until the monthly cost *significantly* favors ownership. Til then? Pods and home delivery.
This would be a nightmare; bland, anonymous pods. Just like food capsules replacing the variety of foods on offer.
Car-sharing is one thing that sounds good in theory, but not in practice. Not to be confused with car rental, which is entirely different.
It would be for you. For the masses, not so much.
To see where this is going, look no farther than Volvo. They are CURRENTLY offering a version of their XC40 as a Subscription, including insurance, for about $600 per month. Gas is the only thing you pay extra for. Now, is that a bland pod? You might think so, but not others.
And a lot of younger folks cannot afford a car now. That is not going to get better. Why buy or lease when you can hail a ride and have none of the problems of ownership? It only works if you can afford that choice. Just like real estate, the cost of entry is too high for most folks under 30 now, so 50 years from now, chances are that car ownership will be so low as to be an outlier at at that point. Ride share works, as does lease/rental, but shared ownership is never going to work. We all want to use something fractionally owned at peak times, so that model doesn’t work well for most. It does work as an offering of luxury marques, but you will not see subscription service offered on a low price vehicle.
It would be a nightmare for a lot of people. I’m talking in the 2030-2040 timeframe, not the Volvo XC40 of 2018.
“Til then? Ipods and home delivery” And they’ll probably look like the people in Wall-e!
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-kdRdzxdZQ&w=854&h=480%5D
But as far as driving non-autonomous cars, I fear that science fiction writers have already hit upon the possibility that it will be 1.Outlawed/Illegal, 2.Ridiculously expensive, 3. Severely restricted. Think it couldn’t happen?…just imagine what politicians could do with “for the common good.” Saftey Nazi’s firmly touting that “A.I.” is safer and more effcient than humans! Since these changes would require a MAJOR infrastructure overhaul, which would probably take years in major urban centers alone, I don’t expect to see it in the remainder of my lifetime! My prediciton is this: for the forseeable future, “cars” will be a mix of IC/IC-Electric hybrids; what they’ll look like is subjective. 🙂
Jonny Cab- The “Uber” of the future! 🙂
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWgrvNHjKkY&w=854&h=480%5D
The current efforts are to make autonomous cars run on standard highways. It remains to be seen whether that can be done, but that won’t require special highway infrastructure.
I am a rabid car fan but I have to admit that there has to be a change in American society’s relationship and dependence on the car. The imbalance between the employment centers and residential centers is totally out of balance. Many of my coworkers tolerate an hour and a half, to two hour commute each way, to work, every day! That’s three to four hours a day just commuting. Some use ACE (Altamont Corridor Express) train from the Central Valley to the Bay Area, which still takes the same amount of time. Private car usage has allowed the “Exurbs”to be be located further and further away every year. I don’t pretend to have any solution to this problem, but this lemming like commute with it’s attendant congestion, can only be improved by greater use of mass transit. Easy for me to say, right? It’s good for the other guy!
I think that the vehicles of the future will be a mixture of IC, electric and hybrid. Depending on their use. Definitely ride sharing will be an even bigger player. I would imagine that larger multi passenger vehicles like vans and small buses will eventually be part of that system. I don’t know if it would be possible for some type of “inductive” charging system to be designed where electric cars could be charged while traveling over the highway. That would be a real break through.
Fifty years from now, I could see that private car ownership could greatly decline. It doesn’t seem like the world is going to run out of petroleum fuels any time soon.