The 2010s hosted several paradigm shifts for the automotive industry. Sedans gave way to crossovers, hybrids made a surprising comeback, and EVs captured everybody’s attention. But what about next decade? I’ve got some thoughts.
1. Tesla will double its sales in America and maintain their EV range supremacy
Tesla sold about 180,000 vehicles in 2018. My prediction is that they’ll basically pull a Subaru. The Japanese automaker doubled its sales in America between 2008 and 2018. Tesla can do the same between now and 2030. Like Subaru, they have a strong brand identity and a loyal following. Their future products will broaden their appeal even further.
What vehicles will propel Tesla to new heights? Not the Cybertruck. I think it will remain a niche product and sell at a rate of 50k per year. Economies of scale might allow Musk to make the 3 less expensive. Otherwise, it will be a vehicle more explicitly geared toward mainstream audiences, perhaps with a starting price just under $30,000, a range of 350 miles with all-wheel drive, and a 5.5 second 0-60 time. It will be a credible challenger to the Honda Accord Sport 2.0T and boast similar amenities. Tesla Model M, for mid-size sedan? Restrictive state laws limiting Tesla’s ability to sell and service vehicles might be the major wrench in that expansion though.
2. Rise of the sub-brand
Ford publicly stated their intentions to create several sub-brands this decade. The Mustang Mach-E and upcoming Focus-based mini Bronco are just two examples of what will probably become a trend among automakers. GM will follow in Ford’s footsteps by naming a future performance SUV after the Camaro or Corvette. A Corvette-based SUV designed to take on the Lamborghini Urus, but for less than half the price? It could happen.
3. The “rise” of true Tesla competitors
The 2020s will see several automakers reach parity with Tesla in certain areas. Some models, like the Mach-E, will compete based on range, price, and desirability. But they won’t be able to match Tesla’s scale until 2025 at the earliest, at least in America. Battery supply constraints and the need for electric vehicles in Europe and China will see limited production runs of the early Tesla competitors. Automakers will eventually overcome these challenges, but not for a while.
4. The Ioniq sets a standard
Expect more vehicles to operate like the Hyundai Ioniq. The Ioniq sits on a dedicated platform and has three variants: a regular hybrid, a plug-in hybrid, and a fully electric model. Automakers might forgo a separate nameplate and simply incorporate this strategy into well known models. This is already happening with vehicles like the Ford Escape and Toyota Rav4, both of which will soon offer a regular gasoline model, a hybrid, and a plug-in hybrid. By 2030 at least five of the top fifteen best selling cars in America will be available in similar configurations, plus at least one fully electric variant.
5. Sedans decline, pickups thrive
Sedans will continue to lose ground to crossovers. Long-running nameplates like the Volkswagen Passat, Chevy Malibu, Hyundai Elantra, and Kia Optima will see one or two more generations before being cancelled. Some might be reborn as pure EVs. By 2030, the compact, mid-size, and full-size segments will mirror what the minivan segment looks like in 2020: Several popular models (Chrysler Pacifica, Toyota Sienna, etc.) and one model that is just as good but is a slow seller that exists for reasons only the manufacturer understands (Kia Sedona).
Pickups will continue their overall dominance. There will be enough demand to go around for every upcoming hybrid and electric pickup. Mid-size pickups like the Toyota Tacoma and Ford Ranger will also do just fine. Compact pickups like the Hyundai Santa Cruz and whatever Ford calls their Focus-based pickup will fit the needs of a lot of buyers, and by the end of the decade we’ll see at least four of them. By 2030 the compact pickup segment will grow to about 250,000 vehicles sold per year.
Okay, my crystal ball just conked out. What did yours say?
I have two:
1) By 2030, it will be impossible to purchase a new car powered only with an internal combustion engine.
2) A return of the idea (mostly) pioneered by BMW (and later dropped) of a car whose sole motive power is electric, but carries on-board a small generator powered by fossil fuel that acts only to charge the battery. But rather than a repurposed motorcycle engine, it will be a bespoke engine, maybe Diesel, maybe rotary, that is designed to be extremely efficient at its sole operating RPM.
Like a locomotive. Definitely a proven idea.
Or a Chevrolet Volt
I’ve long thought this was an application where a rotary engine finally makes sense – it’s small, it’s lightweight, it’s smooth, and lack of torque is irrelevant.
Pretty sure lotus was working on an engine specifically for that purpose
1) ICE will never be 100% abolished. Hardly anything completely goes away. There will always be some CCs from every decade on the road. After all there are still horses and sailboats and typewriters around, just to name a few. Obsoleting 99% of the billion cars in the world practically eliminates their carbon output, but still leaves 10 million driving around.
2) Mazda has said it’s working on a rotary hybrid according to press reports.
I read it as he only means new cars, not old cars. I don’t see the outright banning of new and old ICE cars going down without bloodshed.
In the North American Market in the next 10 years:
1) EV’s numbers growing to 50% to 60% of market. In part due to regulations, in part to attitude of a younger generation with a Eco mindset.
2) Holdouts like me (back end of Baby Boomers) plus some Gen X will continue to shop for pistons, compression, and turbos.
3) Continued consolidation in number of manufacturers. Each is looking for a dance partner to cover cost of EV development.
4) Car sharing (Lift & Uber) will grow. Owning a car has become more of a hassle in urban areas with increasing insurance, trumpeted up municipal fees, auto theft, emissions testing, etc.
5) Cities upping their game on municipal transport. If in doubt, take a look at #4 above. If the city wants to keep this younger generation in the city, money has to shift to city transport. If not, flight to the suburbs will continue.
6) Self driving vehicles will grow, but still have my doubts.
Ask me in ten years how far off I am.
As a “back end” Boomer I can’t wait to get hold of an EV. However, I have never been an early adopter and feel EV’s need a bit more shaking out, but not much more. Right now my main concern is the charging infrastructure. Because some charging methods are incompatible with other EV’s we are still in a “VHS vs. Beta” stage. (Maybe only Boomers will get that reference!)
KevinB,
That’s my issue with EVs.
How much will I spend for a home charger?
What will be the final format (Beta vs VHS or other proprietary format)?
Will my home fuse box support the load (I doubt it, therefore, more money to support a home charger)?
Will my residential electric service handle rapid recharging loads or will I blow the transformer on my block and be the scourge of the neighborhood?
PS: In future “Parade of Homes” campaigns, I see a virtual Betty Furness (an early Boomer reference) endorsing the Westinghouse Home Charging System in the “Home of the 21st Century”
Do you have an electric dryer or range? If so then yes your breaker box will support it. You may need a split breaker if all your slots are full though. The main breaker will be fine with the additional load, though you may need to take advantage of the “value charge” setting. That delays charging until a specified time. So if you want to cook and do laundry when you get home from work you set it to start charging at say midnight, when you know you’ll be in bed and not running the oven and dryer at the same time.
Now if you still have a fuse box, then yeah it probably won’t cut it, but you are also overdue for an upgrade and getting rid of the fuses will increase the value of your home.
Now the local infrastructure could be a different story. Many years ago when I was getting rid of the fuses in one of my rental properties I called up the electric company to have them cut the service to the old weather head. The person on the other end asked why I wanted the power disconnected, not just the meter removed, and I replied because I was updating the entire system from Weatherhead to Grounding. The next question was will there be any new loads. She then had to check if the transformer that supplied that property could handle additional demand.
All you need for home charging is Level 2, which is like the dryer or range as Scoutdude said. You’re home so what’s the hurry? Costs around $500 installed if you have a spare 220v breaker. All modern EVs can use SAE-standard J1772 plugs (shown here) for level 2 charging. (Some like Tesla use a J1772 adapter.)
Superchargers and such which can bring you up to 80% in less than an hour require lots more power than home service can provide. There are still too many different level 3 connectors. So if you want or need to quick charge (on a trip or have no home plug) you choice of EV will also determine your charging network.
An easy prediction for 2030 is the level 3 charging plug issue will (must) be settled and widely deployed. (Will Tesla add CCS to their Superchargers?)
I don’t think I am going very far out on a limb to predict that some progressive cities are going to mandate recharging capability built into new construction homes within the next few years if they aren’t doing so already.
Seattle City Council passed a rule that new homes with off-street parking must be EV-ready, meaning the circuit and wiring in place ready for the charging station to be installed.
Yeah Seattle requires charger ready if you have IF you have off street parking. However before they passed that ordinance they passed one that allows for/ or requires no off street parking for many new residential structures. For those that still require parking the number of spaces have been reduced. There is also an exemption if the electrical infrastructure in the area can’t handle the added load when the application is submitted. So the net result is pretty weak, but that is the way the Seattle City Council works.
The CCS system is the winner in the US, the only mfgs not using it are Nissan/Mitsubishi and Tesla. Yes Electrify America is still installing Chademo plugs but only because they were required to as part of the settlement, because it had to be compatible with non-VW vehicles too.
At the nearest EA site to me they have 1 dedicated J1772 AC unit and 3 dual plug DC chargers, 2 of those have 2 CCS and only 1 has a CCS and a Chademo. There are no other Chademo stations near me.
The PSA/FCA merger is no guarantee of success in North America. I predict the demise of Dodge, Chrysler, Alfa Romeo, and Fiat brands. Peugeot will fail to take off leaving Jeep and Ram. Eventual Merger with another player or takeover by a Chinese company.
General Motors is heading towards another day of reckoning. Buick will become a Chinese brand and vanish from the U.S. market. Corvette will become a brand. GM should be the 400 pound Gorilla in this market but it is in retreat globally and I predict it will be bought by the Chinese, or merge with Ford, or PSA.
Ford always seems to survive by the skin of it’s teeth but my crystal ball says a Ford / GM merger, while unthinkable today, will become accepted as a means of survival.
Hyundai/Kia will continue to thrive and threaten Toyota and VW as world number one.
Toyota will be ok. Honda will be as well.
Kiss Mazda goodbye as an independent company. I think it will be swallowed up by Toyota as a sporty niche brand.
Subaru will be in decline by the end of the next decade.
If Nissan succeeds in moving upmarket, why Infinity? (I don’t think Nissan is going to succeed “upmarket”)
Tesla is a religion. It will grow and grow. I think it will supplant Mercedes and BMW as North America’s number one luxury brand.
New cars will be out of reach for most of us. Ten year loans and six year leases anyone? This alone will drive consolidation. Todays touch screen cars will age very poorly and provide immense angst for third and fourth owners. The expense of maintaining older cars will become an untenable financial burden and further drive people to alternatives, especially in urban areas.
P.S. I hope most of this is wrong.
PSA-FCA should learn from the mistakes of Marchionne’s FCA, they’d be smarter to sell Peugeot sedans as Chryslers than relaunch the Peugeot brand in America.
GM’s put all their chips on big trucks in America and on China and that bet looks iffy at the moment.
I don’t see a Ford/GM merger unless there’s another 2008 crash.
Agreed on Hyundai/Kia, and Honda
Toyota – Mazda – Subaru will see greater platform integration, the question as it ever has been with these will be whether they’re willing to hold the Toyota brand back to give Mazda and Subaru market space.
Keeping Infiniti sufficiently upmarket and differentiated from Nissan is going to be a challenge, as it was all along. Nissan itself isn’t moving that far upmarket, just to their traditional level since with Mitsubishi in the fold they don’t need two bad-credit-no-credit brands.
Tesla’s biggest challenge is what happens when their existing models start to look and feel old. The Model S has been around since 2013 with one facelift.
A market will emerge both for cheap, simple new cars with players already in that space (Mitsubishi, whose done surprisingly well with the Mirage) benefiting, and for cheap “universal” fixes for touchscreens. Right-to-repair legislation will reach a tipping point.
To see a GM/Ford merger, it’ll depends in which direction the Ford/VW alliance will turn. If the alliance end in a divorce, all bets are off.
I don’t think sub-brands will ever be a major thing. Have sub-brands ever worked? The most recent attempt at creating a sub-brand I can think of – Toyota making a full Prius family with three distinct cars – fizzled. There have been several instances of two (or occasionally more) disparate cars sharing a name like Santa Fe/Santa Fe Sport or Cherokee/Grand Cherokee, but those were less sub-brands than lazily avoiding having to build up awareness of a new nameplate. The most flagrant example I can recall was Oldsmobile calling four different car lines “Cutlass” of some sort, which obviously didn’t work out in the long run.
I don’t think the Mustang Mach-E is about creating a sub-brand but rather more about Ford hedging their bets on future Mustang prospects. Here’s Ford’s dilemma – the Mustang is an iconic car with an illustrious half-century-plus history, the first car to successfully target and reel in youthful buyers (the Corvair Monza and VW Beetle were accidents). But Mustang sales have been dwindling in recent years, not because it isn’t competitive but rather the market it competes in is shrinking. Youth appeal has always been crucial for the Mustang but today’s youth, weaned on tall four-door crossovers and rightfully worried about climate change and environmental menaces, likely will not relate at all to a low-slung two-door coupe that spews hydrocarbons. Ford realized the ‘Stang was falling out of step with what today’s young people are looking for in their vehicles, and if it continued in that vein the Mustang would slowly slide into irrelevancy much like Harley-Davidson who built bikes that pleased traditionalists but failed to attract new generations. By calling its new electric crossover a Mustang, Ford is transferring the Mustang legacy to a forward-thinking vehicle that can truly be aspirational to today’s young car buyers, and it shows Ford is going all-in on EVs and has enough faith in it to bestow on it their most iconic nameplate. The Mach-E is quite sporty and coupe-like compared to a typical stodgy three-row crossover and has just enough Mustang design cues to carry the torch, and I think Ford was very smart to call it a Mustang.
Have sub-brands ever worked?
Denali worked quite well for GMC in the prior two decades. However, I see fewer of them now than I did circa 2005-2010. Downsizing the Acadia seems to have really hurt GMC in the New England area at least.
Mercury Cougar sales were at an all time high in 1977-1979 when it was offered as a coupe, sedan, and Station Wagon. However, Mercury did not stand by the recipe past 1982 and for a while I remember random Mercury’s with Cougar head badges (Lynx specifically) could have been more?
It would have been interesting if the Sable had been named Cougar instead and offered a coupe version with the SHO engine, in addition to the sedan and wagon. That would have been the closest “modern day” sub-brand if it happened and I would have loved to see a NASCAR bodied Sable Coupe back then. Oh well…
I suppose Range Rover counts as a sub-brand, since there are several RR models yet Range Rover itself is not a marque even though many people (especially in the U.S.) think it is. Land Rover is the proper make, so the full name of the vehicle is something like “Land Rover Range Rover Evoque” even if nobody calls it that.
I’m really surprised JLR hasn’t broken off Range Rover into a true separate brand.
I still hear a lot of folks refer to their later-model pickups as “Dodge Ram,” not “RAM.” I own one and still catch myself doing the same thing. I wasn’t a fan when they spun RAM off by itself, and am not convinced it helped.
Something to understand about product branding is that there are two main approaches:
“Branded House”
This is where the ‘parent’ (company) is well-known as the source of the product, and products are named and marketed in a way to emphasize the parent brand. Sub-brands may exist, but do not detract from the parent brand (e.g. Apple is the company, and iPhone, Mac, iPad, etc. are sub-brands that are always tied back to the parent brand).
“House of Brands”
This is where each product is its own distinct brand and the parent is generally not mentioned and may not even be known by the consumer (e.g. Proctor & Gamble offers Dawn, Charmin, Bounty, etc., each marketed as a primary brand).
Under the Branded House model, each sub-brand benefits from the halo of the parent brand, generally making it easier to sell a certain value proposition. The sub-brand can then do the work of communicating the product’s application intent to the customer without having to also establish brand loyalty from scratch. However, this can backfire if a sub-brand has a value prop (including severe quality issues) that substantially differs from that of the parent – in that case, it can actually work to dilute the strength of the parent brand.
Your Range Rover example probably fits more under the House of Brands model, even if the parent (Land Rover) is somewhat known to the consumer – Range Rover is primary brand being marketed.
My sense is that Ford, GM and FCA are all on shaky ground from a brand meaning standpoint right now, as it’s hard to articulate exactly what each brand stands for due to all the recent product line thrashing. “We make SUVs and pickups!” isn’t exactly a message that makes any of these stand out from the others. Contrast with Tesla’s value proposition; it’s fairly clear, and clearly is more than “We sell BEVs!”.
““House of Brands”
GM is an example of this,to the point that we don’t even think about it-
No one buys a “General Motors Chevrolet,” just a Chevy, Buick or GMC.
It could be argued that the most successful sub brand is the Ford F Series pick up. Numerous models are under that tent with huge sales numbers.
Bronco was successful with the Bronco and Bronco II for a while.
Perhaps it’s the cynic in me, but the calling a EV crossover a Mustang Mach E seems less an attempt to start a trend to create a subbrand than shield what Ford desperately hopes will be an important car from the baggage of the Ford brand. This is exactly what Mercury did with the Cougar, as the Mercury brand basically meant nothing to anyone by the late 70s too. Calling it Mustang generated buzz that “Ford Model E” never would have. The design itself is nothing remarkable or fresh (it looks remarkably similar to the old Infiniti FX), and it’s a pretty clear Tesla imitator as far as tech goes.
And while I agree too that this is a bet hedged on keeping the Mustang name afloat, I question how successful it will be at that. “Young people” know what a Harley Davidson is, and the stigma with them is who buys them, (old people) much more so than the product itself. Mustang faces the same dilemma to some extent(if second hand demographics are completely ignored, which based on my observations are in fact the elusive “young people”), but if the aim is to keep the Mustang name alive, without any of its character traits, how long will it be before the Mustang name means nothing to anyone? The whole market will supposedly be EV eventually, what will set this crossover apart from the rest? What will the Mustang name mean to buyers at that point? Legacy? Only enthusiasts care about legacy, and we don’t buy new cars, and we are critical of badge jobs.
So the goal then is to not fulfill the Mustang legacy, but to simply have the vaunted(by enthusiasts) Mustang name on a vehicle that will sell in larger volume than it currently does as a coupe. May as well paste it on everything then, Mustang Escape, Mustang Explorer, Mustang F150…
As a consumer, some branding decisions are a puzzle. Sub-brands? Was Cutlass a sub-brand? I never could see the sense in Oldsmobile calling seemingly everything below the 88/98 a Cutlass. And at the end of the day, does it really matter to the consumer? As the rise of the Japanese and decline of the American brands has shown, what really matters is the quality of the product. Get that right, and I don’t care what you call it. Remember when Toyota sounded funny? Get that wrong, and I won’t go near it whatever the name.
Agreed. Did anyone buy the Mustang in the millions between 1964-1/2 and 1966 simply because it was called Mustang?
LTD II, Bronco II, Cougar Villager, Cutlass Calais, Eclipse cross, Mustang Mach E, Scion… This subbrand notion is nothing at all new and the effectiveness of it is specious at best. In this day and age it seems more like an out of date practice rather than the wave of the future, but maybe this is an instance of history repeating or rhyming.
I also don’t believe the consumer cares. People didn’t buy over a million mustangs between 64-1/2 and 66 because of the name, just as they didn’t buy millions of The Beatles records for their name either. The product simply resonated with consumers and the name is simply what they associate with them. If a EDM act decided to call themselves Beatles, they might get some press for the audacity of it but nobody is going to download their beeps and boops for it alone, the product itself needs to resonate with consumers.
Oh, and while we’re on branding, can someone tell me whether Kia is a subbrand of Hyundai? Hyundai owns the company, and sells products under its own name as well. Maybe it’s some peculiarly inscrutable Korean thing.
Lux. “Sport” Main
GM = Cadillac, Pontiac, Chevrolet
Ford = Lincoln, Mercury, Ford
Toyota = Lexus, Scion, Toyota
Hyundai = Genesis, Kia, Hyundai
At the time Hyundai launched Kia the above table was still in tact. Though excluding Marauder and Cougar Mercury was not really much of a “sport” division anymore and Genesis may have been a concept on a napkin in Seoul at that point. But you could see Hyundai stretching its legs with the XG300 and Azera. As well as the Kia Amanti.
The journalists say that Kia and Hyundai kayfabe a lot in public and don’t admit to sharing anything besides powertrains and chassis for US Compliance purposes. However, I think it is actually beneficial for Kia in particular that Pontiac, Mercury, and Scion all went out of business because Kia as sort of become the replacement of those three brands under one roof.
Want a new Scion? – try the Soul and Forte.
Want a new Pontiac? – try the Stinger.
Want a new Mercury Grand Marquis and Mountaineer? – Try the Cadenza, K900 and Palisade.
IMO the Prius brand experiment fizzled because “Prius” stopped being the green smug-mobile of choice once Tesla hit its stride. And once hybrid versions of the Corolla and RAV-4 started putting up Prius-like mpg numbers, buyers flocked to the more conventional vehicles rather than the “weird-for-its-own-sake” Prius.
2020 Malaise era II starts. 2030- who knows but I’m sure it’s only going to get worse!
Please explain.
translation: “I don’t like any of the cars coming out anymore, so I’ll just be Eeyore and preach doom and gloom.”
Within this decade all non-electric motorcycles will be banned.
At some point, the Rivian electric pickup truck (currently backed by Ford and Amazon) will become the best-selling vehicle in America.
+1
I predict that both of my daughters will finally learn stick shift (on our 2006 Forester, long may it endure) just in time for stick cars to disappear from the domestic new-car market.
I would hope that our Australian friends will comment here in light of the catastrophic fires that are engulfing parts of that country that have burned millions of acres, and killed half a billion animals. Will this horrible tragedy change consumer behavior?
Nope. We only just elected a govt which essentially denies any of the science, and 70%+ of the media market is dominated by that wonderful Aussie, Rupert Murdoch, whose flagship paper did not even cover the disaster at New Year – when even the Frankfurt daily had on its front page!
By 2030, I expect each of us to be driving a 14 litre V8 Hummer-type vehicle across what will be a dead moonscape.
on one hand, you have near 100% consensus in the scientific community that things are going in a bad way fast.
on the other hand, some guy on Facebook whose name is Cody and has his truck as his profile picture says it’s all bulls**t.
Huh. who do I go with here?
one anecdotal comment on the evils of touchscreens; my family fleet includes a 2010 (last year body on frame) Explorer with old style dash controls, and a 2010 Ford Edge with the inaugural touch screen Sync. Both vehicles have 125k+ miles in a very cold winter climate. I have replaced 2x all the hvac knobs, blend door motors and assemblies in the ‘analog’ Explorer, and none in the Sync Edge. The screen has a slight line visible in the home screen, but is still perfectly touch responsive (as are the flush mount capacitor buttons). I also have the pleasure of lots of taxi rides, and 10 year old Prius screens appear to be holding up (no idea if replaced, of course). So i am not sure the modern in car electronics will be the point of failure as these current new cars age.
I also grew up in the 80s when every adult assured me I would never see a hot rod again. The Hellcat begs to differ….. 🙂 I will choose to remain optimistic about the motoring future.
Tesla sold about 180,000 vehicles in 2018 (and will double its sales this decade)
They just announced that 2019 deliveries hit 367,500 vehicles. So they already beat your projection before the new decade ever began. 🙂
Based on Ed’s headline above that projection I believe he meant US deliveries, I think your number is worldwide.
Splitting fine hairs, are we? 🙂
True. But since Tesla doesn’t break out US sales, it’s not so easy to get a quick read on that. But I rather suspect that it will take less than a decade for them to double US sales.
Tesla is of course very globally-focused, and that’s reflected in their only reporting global sales. And that’s what is gong to determine their long-term success.
t’s been quite obvious that Tesla’s US deliveries in 2019 are somewhat depressed because they have focused on meeting pent-up demand in global markets. This is not a comparable situation with any other manufacturer.
I predict that the Cybertruck will sell in significantly greater numbers than Ed’s very modest 50k/year prediction. The existing reservations alone strongly suggest that.
Oh, I didn’t realize that, Ed quoted 180,000 US sales for 2018 calendar year so I assumed that he had knowledge.
And not meaning to split hairs, and even less to put words in Ed’s mouth but I also think he meant sustained ANNUAL sales, not just a total number over a decade, yeah, that’d be too simple. FWIW I can surely see it happening though, i.e build up to at least 360k sales per year, every year in the US by the end of the decade. Likely by the middle of it, I’d say.
Edit – You edited while I was responding so my comment now is less than clear but I think we are on the same page in this regard.
US Tesla sales are all estimates various sources generate based on registrations in various states and such. Tesla does not break out sales by any geographic region, at least not yet. They might with the new factory in China, as that is essentially a subsidiary.
My Cybertruck prediction is that it will sell very well the first year or two and then tail off dramatically. There’s a long history of unusually-styled cars that have strong sales the first two years until nearly everyone who wants one has one and the novelty wears off. (see: AMC Pacer or Chrysler PT Cruiser yearly sales figures). This may not apply if the truck proves to be more practical than conventionally-shaped vehicles. I don’t think it was a bad idea to break the mold with the design though – Tesla’s limited production capacity means they’re not going to sell in Detroit 3-like quantities. Much of the press missed the point when they noted that the CT is unlikely to knock the F-150 from its perch. I don’t think the target customer is even a previous truck owner. These are going to sell to sci-fi and video game fanatics, not traditional pickup truck buyers.
Maintaining registration on an older gas & diesel powered vehicle will become impossible in some states. Just look at California’s current laws to get rid of diesel trucks older than 2010.
A federal program will launched similar to cash for clunkers in an effort to further rid the country of older foul emissions spewing vehicles and push people to hybrid or electric. How soon this takes place depends on the results of next two US Presidential elections.
I agree that newer cars will become (most already are) disposable like a cell phone. I also agree that rising new car costs with rising maintenance/upkeep costs on the used car market (I can imagine it’s expensive to maintain the technology in that old Tesla type car!) combined with dwindling need in urban areas could lead to less cars being purchased as personal vehicles.
Aston Martin dies out or is bought up and only sustained through a brand engineering scheme (similar to Rolls/Bentley/Lambo). Other small upper echelon manufacturers not already under the VW or BMW umbrellas face a similar fate.
Some of the electric only vehicle companies that have started up recently will go under or be absorbed by another company so long as the old guard can adapt and get their electric vehicles on the road quickly, with equal capability (i.e. range), and more reliability. I admit this more of a 20 year prediction. I’m not predicting its demise, but can see Tesla going by way of AMC in the next 50 years.
By 2030 The future of motor sport is uncertain if associated parties just “maintain course and speed.”
Here’s my take for what it’s worth..
I don’t seem pure EV’s exceeding more than 20 percent of U.S. sales in the next 10 years. That’s still a lot of cars – perhaps 3.5 million. Some slowing will be because of weakness in the used EV market. I do think that some sort of hybrid will become almost universal though.
I think that Tesla will still be here, and strong in 10 years; they have cache and a good record for reliability. I predict that they’ll jettison Elon in the next 5 years or so – this happens with almost all startups that become successful. The personality required for a startup is very different than the personality required to sustain a business long term.
I don’t see huge success from any individual current maker other than Tesla in the U.S. EV market. There will be a good number of sales but no stand-out single competitor to Tesla.
As others have said, Ford will still be here and doing fine; the F-150 craze may be slowing in 10 years but it’ll still be profitable.
Additionally as others have said, GM will almost assuredly face another crisis in the next serious economic downturn and will pretty much abandon U.S. based production. Buick will be built exclusively in China, Chevys in Korea and pickups in Mexico, with only a still struggling Cadillac made in U.S.A.
Toyota will still lead in sales; VW will abandon the U.S. market to focus on E.U. EVs. FCA will abandon cars and be only Jeep and Ram.
That’s enough… I can only be wrong about so many things
Regarding Tesla, I believe that Tesla Corporate will have Mr. Musk as long as he wants to be there. I believe that Elon Musk will get “bored” with electric car production once it becomes easy or mainstream and he will leave on his own accord before he is forced out. If Tesla runs into any hiccups he will return for his second act ala Steve Jobs and Apple.
Regarding Ford, even though F-150 sales are slowing, I believe that they have a few aces up their sleeve in the short term namely the Bronco, Baby Bronco, and Mach E. If they can get the build quality right and save the Explorer/Aviator they will be able to off-set some lost F-150 sales.
The good thing about Ford’s situation is that they will save a ton of money on exterior styling and corporate facias because they are out of the “car” business. Everyone knows what a Mustang, Bronco, Explorer, F-150, and Continental are “supposed to look like.” Future design will be variations on that theme without needing to reinvent the wheel every seven years like most traditional automakers have done since well…ever.
Ford is becoming similar to Jeep and Ram in that regard. In that if you close your eyes and think of Ram you see the 1994 design and close your eyes and think of Jeep you see either a Wrangler of (Grand) Cherokee but the exterior is engrained. Ford now needs to just work on updating interiors and for the love of god please Make Quality Job #1 Again!
Tesla is more likely to be gone by 2030 than doing dramatically better. As more EVs make it to the market their true profit source, selling credits will dry up, not to mention that those other vehicles will also eat into Tesla’s sales.
Tesla’s survival depends on maintaining their lead in motor, electronics and especially battery technology and production. You can look at Tesla as a battery company that uses cars and grid storage as ways to sell the batteries. Storage will be a much bigger share of Tesla’s business in 2030.
Look at the Porsche Taycan’s disappointing efficiency and range to see how hard it is to even match with Tesla. Musk & Co. are relentless competitors. They’ll be around in 2030.
Interesting post, and comments. I have no idea where the industry and manufacturers are going; in many ways this has to be the most volatile time in the history of the automobile. I do think that the Beta-VHS analogy needs to be taken further. After a fairly short time, the DVD with its benefits obliterated both, but after an equally short time, an entirely new paradigm, not just a new medium, replaced the whole concept of physical media. I’m talking about streaming, of course. For cars, will it be car-share or driverless or a combination of both, or something we can’t really imagine now.
OK, after writing for a few minutes, I do feel the urge to make a few predictions. Tesla will continue global growth, GM as we know it will be gone, and small car- or CUV-based pickups will be the next form-factor fad.
I hope I’m wrong, but I can’t help but think that none of this will matter in five years.
I hope you’re right, because this is a bleak future regardless.
Technology, technology, and more technology:
Batteries: Some, perhaps many, maybe even most of the rumored technologies will come to market dramatically reducing the cost and weight of energy storage, possibly by as much as an order of magnitude. This will make the cost of electric cars much more reasonable giving them a large market share.
Self driving cars: Probably not perfected in ten years (probably never) but getting better all the time so that they are demonstrably safer than human driven cars and thus are in wide use.
Self driving long haul trucks: These are in beta test now and are expected to be widely in use in a few years. Together with battery improvements long haul trucking will be greatly changed. I can envision a truck going coast to coast non stop in two to three days.
Car to car communication: Together with self driving this will be almost mandatory. Cars “talking” to each other can avoid a lot of crashes.
I’m not going to speculate on the automotive sociopolitical aspects that sends me into a angry depression so I’ll keep things short and modest.
-All that will remain of FCA as we know it will be Jeep by 2030
-The C8 Corvette will be the last Corvette generation
-The Mustang coupe will quietly be dropped and the Mach E designation will disappear from the crossover
-Crossover sales will decline
-30% of cars will be BEV and 80% will be Tesla models
And what happens to Ram, the #2 selling pickup? And van?
I meant to include Ram, I couldn’t edit my comment.
I hesitate to make sweeping predictions, and always get a chuckle when I revisit future forecasts in the buff books and then compare their guesses with the realities that came to pass. Usually they are wide of the mark, to say the least, and typically reflect “trends of the moment” from that time period taking over, which rarely matches reality. Not convinced that the next 10 years will be any different.
However, I will opine that a few of the biggest issues facing the industry are as follows:
1) Decreased demand for personal-use vehicles. They have become too expensive for a lot of people (especially younger ones), many of whom are also disinterested in driving in general.
2) Broad-based market-driven adoption of BEVs is still uncertain, and I think people underestimate the enormous societal and infrastructure changes required to fully deploy BEV-only fleets. So I’d place a bet on the success and growth of Hybrids, including BHEVs.
3) The disruption generated by BEV development to OEMs, suppliers, workers, dealers, aftermarket support and refueling providers will be mammoth. Some companies will go bankrupt and some economies will be severely impacted as the world struggles with such a gargantuan transformation in its transportation ecosystem.
4) Fully autonomous cars will still not be a reality, despite much hype and investment.
Buick (in the US) will join Pontiac and Olds in the GM junkyard.
I’ll be there to take pictures and report.
Autonomous cars have been hugely oversold and overhyped. Cars without steering wheels out in the real world will still be a fantasy in 2030. GM in particular appears to be way overspending on it.
Getting to 100% autonomy and better safety in all conditions and areas is a very, very steep wall to climb. I’m a technophile and longtime computer engineer, and that experience drives my opinion.
Rising prices and increasing complexity, both in technology and in the user interface, will lead people to hang onto their existing vehicle for longer. Buyer resistance. Just this morning I was reading a road test criticising the Peugeot 508 for its overly complex and confusing touch screen controls. Why try to reinvent something other companies have done better?
Also there’s all those annoying electro-nannies that beep and burp for all sorts of things. Why have the same alarm sound for a multitude of occasions? The poor distracted driver just gets confused and wonders what’s gone wrong now, and questions whether this new car was such a good idea after all. Here’s where a voice alert system giving a specific message would be really useful. Maybe this needs to be government-mandated, along with a standard layout for touch screens.
One thing to remember is that the average age of vehicles on the road are over 11 years and keeps going up. Unless something dramatic happens, a decent number of the cars on the road in 2030 are already on the road today.
Three broad predictions:
1) BHEVs will continue to grow, followed by BEVs. (I also hope HFCEVs will make inroads, but it’s too early to predict that wild-card). Non-hybrid fossil-fuel powered vehicle sales will be effectively eliminated by regulation of some sort in many countries, and by the tipping point of consumer adoption in many markets (EU mostly). The US will lag this trend, due to government inertia.
2) Corporate consolidation will continue. About 20 years ago, I read that there would be only 6 major car companies by now; while that’s not quite happened the trend is clear. Of the current global behemoths, I foresee only Toyota, VW, and Hyundai surviving as leading entities, and each will have swallowed one or more of the others. Of the rest, I’m not smart enough (perhaps I’m too smart) to guess which will end up bought by, or married to whom, but I do expect surprises.
3) Self-driving vehicles will still not exist beyond the lab. Car sharing (ie: Uber) will grow, but the economic house-of-cards will catch up with them and force a shakeup: You can’t keep paying drivers poverty-wages and expecting them to invest in ever-more expensive vehicles while pretending that they’re really contractors. This will also drive the market towards more efficient cars (a natural result of people making their living off their cars).
Please indulge me as I have more than five predictions.
Chinese cars will be commonplace in the US, and a couple of them will be known as the best quality-built vehicles available. Toyota, in particular, will be well past it’s quality peak and will be well below average, selling mostly on tech gadgetry.
Honda quality will still be decent, but they will be the king of full sized pickup trucks, not producing any cars and only one SUV-type vehicle, the “0U812”. They think it’s hilarious; the kids don’t get it.
The Chinese will be producing all or most of their US models in the US and one will be on the way to being the world’s largest producer of vehicles. GM as a corporation will be gone, having been absorbed into one of the tech companies mostly for their patents.
German car companies have ceased making vehicles anymore, with the main reason being “We’re just not feeling it anymore, brah.” (Germany has started chilling in a big way, yo.)
Burning fuels will make a strong comeback, at least in the US, with ethanol made from garbage and seaweed powering most of the average cars. And they will be cars, as PLCs and sedans make a strong return, the 70s being the hip retro decade to copy. Diesel will be gone completely, and propane/electric hybrids will power many of the higher priced cars.
Six or eight wheels will be the big thing for off-road vehicles, with separate power to each wheel a given. Trucks like that will not be retro-70s-styled like the cars. For them, futuristic is in. The Tesla Cybertruck will go into it’s third generation by the end of the decade, still somewhat angular but also resembling a grouping of evergreen trees. It will also have six wheels.
Tires will not require inflation, as the argon is sealed in them from the factory. They will not be rubber, but a tough, strong byproduct of the seaweed ethanol production. They will have sensors in them which count the amount of rotations they complete, and as they near the end of their lifespan, about 100,000 miles, they will turn from dark gray, to orangish, and then to red, to embarrass people to replace them in time. They can actually last up to 200,000 miles, but who wants red tires? Except that sometimes kids paint their tires red ironically if they have the old style black rubber tires, which are still sold but are not considered cool by anyone.
Hydrogen fuel cells are right around the corner.
No, not really.
Oh, I forgot Ford. They are back in American hands, owned by Amazon who only uses them to produce the conveyor systems in their fully automated facilities. The AI that runs it is made by a subsidiary of the tech company that bought GM.
Chrysler is still around, but no one seems to notice.
You’re an oracle!
1. Tesla Cybertuck never goes into production and is discovered to be a brilliant faceted fake who’s only purpose was to confuse and divert other manufactures about future design
2. little known company Wrightspeed will be preferred powertrain for medium duty vehicles and is preferred model for transitioning from gas to electric.
3. Large automakers embrace microturbine-electric hybrid powertrains and phase out reciprocating engines.
4. Ford Senior Management (and family) continues to instill fear in employees who speak up against common sense issues (insert Powershift debacle) resulting in 20% additional market share loss. F-150 continues to be it’s saving grace.
5, FCA & PSA merger results in eventual bankruptcy. Jeep and Ram/Trucks are sole survivors.
6. GM – Who knows
7. Cadillac changes into a custom boutique. Models itself after Rolls Royce
8. Honda & Toyota decides to start making creative and interesting vehicles again. Market share unchanged from current
9. Hyundai market share increases 20%
10. Tesla takes Betamax trophy for proprietary chargers after government mandates universal charger access for all EV manufactures based on government subsidies they have received.
11. Government mandates universal EV battery standards and comparability by 2030. Also requires research into EV batteries for very cold environments
12, As of yet unknown manufacturer redesigns microbus that is cheap, basic & efficient with pay as you go upgrades. First vehicle young people cannot get enough of. Similar to VW microbus but with Toyota reliability and is CHEAP.
1. By 2030, Toyota will be the top selling company in the US.
2. By 2030, gasoline in the US will cost $5 to $7.50 per gallon in today’s money, as the cost of oil rises AND taxes are increased. With inflation, that could be $10 to $30 per gallon.
3. High fuel prices, and a drop in the real cost of battery power will give BEVs about 25% of the market.
4. Chinese branded cars will come—they might mirror VW…or Renault from 1956-67.
5. Car sales will average 20% to 25% less, as socioeconomic trends continue to punish working and middle America, and the government proves unwilling or unable to streamline onerous safety and cafe rules; the higher prices and reduced purchasing power don’t bode well.
6. GM will be taken over by some one or go out of business. The strategy of putting all bets on trucks and CUVs will knock it off balance the moment our bubble economy bursts and/or there is a fuel crisis for whatever reason; the billions diverted (wasted) to autonomy will be the mortal blow.
7. Likewise, Ford will get a partner, and become the “American pickup” subsidiary, like we are seeing for Chrysler.
8. Baby boomers who experienced the malaise era, where people in the 1970s found themselves paying a lot more money for new cars that didn’t run as well will counsel their kids that life will not end, as we experience another malaise decade.
9. I know, I’m such a downer. I’ve saved the worst for last. Some states will start using boxes, or phone apps, to “improve safety and fairly spread the costs of driving”
They will entice people by incentives, perhaps waiving registration/license plate fees if you “take the app or box” and pay $5 per 1000 miles, or $25 for first 5,000. More miles will cost disproportionately more, to be progressive. Then, you’ll get a text or email informing you you were speeding 10 over on Route 309, and your bank account will be automatically debited the fine.
That’s my biggest fear—in the name of “safety” and “fairness”, we will be monitored where, when, and how we drive. Not being “connected” while driving will be as bad as a DWI. Vision Zero, and the war on the car, will not be kind to auto enthusiasts
10. Manual transmissions will disappear from new US vehicles
11. As people look back wistfully at the good old days, the car lovers will keep that 2015 GTI or 2011 Accord or Corvette or 1994 Camry or 2018 Fusion or older 3-series, and share tips on how to keep them running—-just like Cubans have kept their ancient American cars—and they will come to CC for solace, support, and information!
So CC’s future looks very bright to me
Reply:
#5. In urban areas, the younger generation either cannot afford a car or are not interested in owning a car. With taxes, insurance, government fees, vandalism, maintenance, and registration, I understand why. In rural areas, a car is a must, but not a brand new vehicle that depreciates by one quarter in the first year.
# 6. I so agree on the resources wasted on autonomous driving. It’s a rabbit hole with no great benefit. Ride sharing (Uber, Lift, etc) is economical enough making car ownership and autonomous driving irrelevant.
#10. Again, I agree. I offered to teach my nieces to drive a stick shift. They were more focused on their social media web pages.
#11. Your dystopia view of the future has me holding on to my V6 Ford Escape a while longer. 🚙🚙🚙
Re #5 – When I think about how I go about my vacations to major international cities this makes perfect sense and not just for the youngers. When staying in the city I tend to walk, take public transportation etc. The last thing I usually want to deal with while there is a car although if we want to go elsewhere (outside the city), then we rent one for that portion of the trip. If we were to eventually live somewhere really urban I could absolutely see not owning a car there, it actually sounds sort of liberating. Walk to wherever, and have stuff delivered as needed. Maybe a bicycle with a bike trailer. Maybe. When I was younger and lived in SF I thought I “needed” a car (and owned one), looking back I spent a lot of time searching for parking.
By 2030, old farts like your present interlocutor will have come to understand what 90% of consumers already do: that cars are consumer goods of no great inherent interest. They are useful (as well as dangerous, polluting, and frequently pointless in big traffic), and the entire industry will reflect the dominance of this attitude. There will be a max of 15 platforms worldwide, all adaptable to hybrid and EV. There will be essentially one maker in each market, and platform/hardware commonality between any smaller players left.
Ride-sharing will be huge.
Cars will be quite boring.
For most people, they always were. But now, they’re also way safer and cleaner, and even less to be thought about.
I guess I’ll hold on to the 2006 9-3 convertible… in a few years it’ll be Cuban style, loaded with the ignition components of a 2013 Camry I found in the woods, driven by the transmission of my sacrificed 2017 sonata, and covered with a top made of bits of PVC pipe and gorilla tape.
My crystal ball is cracked, so my distorted view:
-EVs are here to stay and eventually increase, much like what ICE did to horse and buggy, but that took awhile (decades) and much of the transition was because of infrastructural chokepoints like roads and filling stations. I figure to have an EV (hybrid vs. full plug-in, I don’t know) about the time I retire. But I’ll probably hang onto my 2001 Nissan Frontier with 5sp manual until my keys are taken away.
-Automobiles of today are increasingly complex and thus increasingly unlikely to be saved once broken. Being a very late boomer, I still fawn over the memories of my parents and grandparents vehicles, but they were mechanically simple and easier to repair. Now with all the software updates and other electronics, all of which will no longer be supported within 10 years of introduction, cars produced today are already full of ‘unobtainium’ parts. In the last decade alone, I’ve come to believe that ‘made in China’ roughly translates to ‘SOL on finding replacement parts’, and have to buy a whole new widget because of one lousy part. I have a great admiration for today’s car hobbyists who care and love their brass era vehicles since they weren’t ubiquitous in childhood yet developed a fondness for them.
-I still think there is a future for autonomous vehicles, but between now and full acceptance is the transition and that’s where it still looks like a fantasy. I believe that AVs can work in flat grids like Phoenix and Florida, but complicated landscapes can confuse it, and of course there’s little control over Random Variable X, aka the human factor/driver which figures prominently into the transition period of sharing the same space. AI may push this to the finish line, but then we get to worry about those AVs turning into Terminators.
-Manufacturers will continue to miss trends and find themselves bankrupt, contracting and/or taken over, likely by other off-shore entities.
-NIMBYism is one of the biggest impediments to expansion of mass transit, both intra- and intercity. Something’s got to give, but not likely in the next decade as policymakers and stakeholders bicker incessantly and the inertia of doing nothing continues.