Love it or hate it, thanks to massive media exposure the Tesla Cybertruck is probably now the most instantly and universally recognizable automotive shape. If nothing else, Elon Musk has pulled off a coup in this regard; it took a lot longer than 24 hours for the VW Beetle to attain this status; more like 24 years. And given how time has moved on, the VW’s long reign at the top was probably fading fast anyway.
Or did I miss someone?
There’s already a Cybertruck cybersweater.
And a Lego CT. How many days before CT toys are on the shelves?
How about the CT in military or police garb?
It would be interesting to know just how many of the globe’s 7.7 billion inhabitants have laid eyes on it in the past few days. There may be broken windows, but what’s the old saying about that there’s no such thing as bad publicity?
As of Sunday, Elon Musk tweeted that there have been over 187,000 preorders for the Cybertruck ($100; refundable). Update Sunday 7PM: It’s now >200k.
I wouldnt go that far. I asked several non car friends what they think of the cybertruck. The hadnt seen anything about it.
Agreed: I asked my wife what she thought about the Tesla Cybertruck, and she said “The What?” Once I showed her a picture, though, it imprinted on her mind.
The Cybertruck is still (for now) mostly a phenomenon of the automotive press. But when it starts showing up on the road, I think it will be as instantly recognizable and distinctive as “Slug Bugs” were in my youth.
I hadn’t seen a flat angle side view of the truck before WITH a driver in the driver’s seat. Assuming that’s a standard size male and not an NBA player,it doesn’t look like he’ll fit in his own back seat. If nothing else this will be interesting to watch…
I do wonder if the $100 refundable “deposit” has something to do with the pre-orders. If it were the same $1,000 as the M3 would there be as many? (and why isn’t it the same, why wouldn’t they want the free loan?) Would the number be even higher if there was no money required to put your name on the list?
Me, I wonder if the fully-refundable $100 “deposit” is anything like…oh, say…buying warehouse quantities of a book to fraudulently jigger it onto the NY Times best-seller list.
The logic doesn’t work though, right? If you get your book on the NYT best Seller list, it will sell more. It’s a way to get massive exposure for your book that it otherwise wouldn’t have.
There’s no comparable list for cars, and why would folks place more preorders because Musk said they already had this many? It’s getting plenty of free publicity anyway.
There is the crowdthink phenomenon though where people are swayed to do things when others do them. Kind of like buying a silver automatic BMW 320i for the badge, no matter if there are already a dozen of them in the parking lot at school. Lots of people have FOMO and at $100 it’s easy and very low risk to get on the list and be able to talk about it at the next party.
The problem with Daniel’s theory is that is assumes Musk would be willing to create a massive legal liability. He’s done some borderline things before, but as I told you the other day about pricing, this is what the SEC calls “material information”. To undertake a fraud on this level would mean Musk would undoubtedly be stripped of control of Tesla by the SEC if caught, especially since he’s on a very short leash with them. I don’t think he’s that dumb.
And why assume there aren’t that many preorders? It seems pretty logical to me, given it’s $100 and refundable. That number doesn’t surprise me the least.
What’s of greater concern to Tesla watchers is that Tesla has not released the number of preorders ($2500) for the Model Y. But then they said they weren’t going to be doing that anymore (giving preorder info). That didn’t last long. 🙂
Is the presentation of the Cybertruck a stock pump? Undoubtedly to one degree or another, as it’s clearly not production ready, and there’s been nothing said about where it might be produced.
But then the degree of interest may also influence the timetable and commitment to building it.
Tesla works unlike any other car company. So far, Musk has made it work. But there are no guarantees, obviously. He has a very high capacity for risk.
Here’s how the situation was explained to me by someone a great deal more conversant than I in matters of corporate finance and suchlike:
Ford sold some 909k F-series trucks in 2018, at an average transaction price of $47k, generating profit (by generally accepted accounting principles) of $42.7bn. Tesla say they have taken 200,000 $100 deposits on a truck they can’t yet supply for sale, creating a $20m liability in that they are now committed to produce those trucks; if they don’t, they’re obliged to return all that deposit money.
I can’t see it being material information. For one, it’s about $19 mill on a company valued at $50 billion, a rounding error. Two, it’s blatantly puffery – the totally refundability sees to that. Any reasonable investor who considers this info more significant than a Facebook “likes” would be laughed out of court, so whether true or not, it isn’t a risk to tweet this.
That said, Musk has a streak of madness in his very considerable smarts.
I wasn’t jumping on Daniel’s wagon, I was merely positing that I have no idea how big or meaningful the “pre-order” number is as the dollar amount to “pre-order” has been different for each vehicle they’ve released, hence extremely difficult if not impossible to parse the relative desirability from that. However, logic would lead most to believe that the lower the dollar amount to hold the spot then the higher the number of people signing up. And at a very low price/risk more people are likely to do so even if they are on the fence if they see others taking the (small) plunge. $100 is cheap enough to be able to talk about it on Monday at the office, I know a couple of people that placed $1,000 for the Model 3 and then in the end decided it wasn’t for them after all. But it sure came up in conversation!
What they should do is let people commit a dollar amount of their own choosing and then that determines their order in the production sequence. i.e. he who deposits $39,900 (or more) gets truck #1. You only pony up $100 now, well, you’re a bit down the line but still ahead of others who didn’t pre-order although with the Model3 there were still people who never pre-ordered that got their cars ahead of many who did, usually due to production efficiencies etc, not that it didn’t rankle a few people. Still, letting people place their own amount would be a way to see the number of true believers and it’d likely be larger than most would think.
I also wasn’t doubting the number presented by Musk, and there’s nothing stopping a company from presenting their vehicle to the public in advance and taking preorders or even actual orders. As we discussed it’s not like he was handing out pre-signed puchase orders to interested parties with a price on it and his signature at the bottom. If you were placing an actual “order” at this time there would undoubtedly be language hedging on the price or features or delivery date just in case. I certainly don’t think Musk is stupid.
I can’t see it being material information. For one, it’s about $19 mill on a company valued at $50 billion, a rounding error
Yes, but that represents potentially over $10 billion in sales. Even if only half follow through, that’s some $5B.
I’m not an expert on the subject about what’s material info or not, but I’m quite convinced that if this number were a total fraud, it would be likely be a serious problem. The risks grossly outweigh the benefits. That’s my real point. Musk doesn’t need to make this up.
And the test is: might/would someone be influenced to buy or sell TSLA stock based on this info? I could easily see that being the case.
I certainly don’t think Musk is stupid.
I didn’t say or imply you do. I was specifically referring to Daniel’s theory in my comment.
Although Musk has done some dumb things 🙂
Ford sold some 909k F-series trucks in 2018, at an average transaction price of $47k, generating profit (by generally accepted accounting principles) of $42.7bn.
Ford sold 1.08 million F Series in 2018, for a total revenue of about $50 billion. I know the F Series is profitable, but I think the 85% profit margin (‘profit of 42.7 billion”) your knowledgeable acquaintance suggested is just a wee bit off.
$20 million is chump change for Tesla. They’re sitting on $5 billion in cash. Anyway, it’s money set a side, it’s not like they’re going to spend it in the meantime.
I rather doubt that Tesla won’t build the CT. But anything is possible.
The particulars of how to jigger the figures will of course differ; I meant to compare these artificial “best sellers” and these claims of instant market demand for the Cybertruck, both as tools to inflate demand—all the popular kids are reading/buying it! Everybody who’s anybody is reading/buying it!
From a reporter (Engadget) that rode in the back seat:
There was plenty of leg and headroom for my six-foot three-inch frame in the back seat, which is always a plus when you’re trying to impress your friends with your crazy ’70s sci-fi space truck.
Interesting, I just found a couple of ride videos online from after the presentation and the space does look large enough once inside based on the size of the people in the back seat. That picture then does it a disservice, thanks for the clarifier.
Well, I’ll certainly give you that it’s impossible to unsee it, unfortunately. Then again, I take a pass on Tesla, its products, and Musk’s “vision” for the future.
Is that a better question for the year 2100, as it’s been 81 years since the Beetle began production?
I must say I appreciate the broken windows on the cyber sweater, that’s a nice touch.
Now just have to get someone’s granny to actually knit it.
The comparison has to have some validity, as many millions also either loved the Veewee or thought it unspeakable.
I’m about as far from a VW Beetle fanboy as one can be in the car fan world, But the “Cybertruck” is a long way from being as iconic shape as the Bug. It actually had decades of existence as an actual car. Even if this thing is built, I doubt it will ever be as iconic. The Bug was cheap and available world wide for years and years. Teslas, even if they become Chevy or Ford priced, won’t be able to top the “bug” or the Model T in culture. I doubt that any single vehicle will again.
Hard to say, hard to say.
Beetle is one of the only few vehicles so popular to appear on underwear ( along with VW Minibus, Model T ) just like chili peppers. Appearing on sweater is the first step
I didn’t say anything about their respective volumes. I said “instantly and universally recognized”. Meaning how easily and commonly folks would recognize it when they see it. Only a few hundred people people have seen the one that exists, but a very large number of people already would likely identify it if it was shown to them.
And I’m pretty convinced the Beetle’s universal recognition factor is dropping fast. How many Chinese would recognize one?
I’m not sure how many Chinese know the Beetle’s shape, but I also don’t know if age alone diminishes an icon. The Model T was LONG gone when I was born and even my 20 year old neice knows what it looks like. She also can tell a (Type 1) Beetle. I doubt she’d be able to tell an ’03 Ford Random or even an ’13 VW Random.
You’re going to tell me your niece could readily tell me which one of these is the T and which one is the Chevy? Seriously?
I’m pretty convinced you’re not getting my point, as in “instantly and universally recognized”.
The Model T was not distinctive looking, unless you knew its subtle distinctions from other cars at the time.
I’d like to think I know these things, but apparently I don’t. I’d say the top is the Ford.
Model T’s on the bottom. I had to view large. By sheer ubiquity most car guys can probably tell a Model T from a not-Model T, but it’s probably not much of a stretch to say that to most non-enthusiasts any pre-streamlined car is a “Model T”.
I’m a GM guy but, the Ford is the bottom car.
If respective volumes weren’t a factor in being instantly recognizable then people would say the Beetle looks like a Tatra V570.
Recognition is memory, and memory goes stale without reminders. The beetle was produced for decades, in huge numbers, in multiple country’s, sold for modest prices and made their way to many owners second hand as cheap wheels, and now it’s an icon. We never get a chance to for our collective memory to wane on the beetle. The Cybertruck is still ripe in the newscycle, we instantly recognize it world over, right now, because we probably saw another story browsing our feed 10 minutes ago, but years from now, years after it was produced? We might remember the shape but there might be some “OMG I forgot Tesla made that! What was it called again?”
The air cooled Beetle is strictly a collector car almost everywhere in the world. For folks.under 50, it’s just a distinctive old car.like a Mustang.
Wikipedia claims the Beetle was a copy of the Tatra 97. Here a summary of the relevant section
Tatra sued Porsche, Porsche was willing to settle. But Hitler stopped it from happening. After the Second World War Tatra resumed its lawsuit. In 1965 VW settled and paid Tatra 1,000,000 Deutsche Mark in compensation.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tatra_97#Resemblance_to_Volkswagen_KdF-Wagen
The V570 was the most beetle like in appearance, and it preceded the 97, which used its principals
https://www.curbsideclassic.com/automotive-histories/automotive-history-hans-ledwinkas-revolutionary-tatras/
The suit by Tatra wasn’t about the Beetle’s styling at all. It covered a couple of very technical engineering solutions/patents regarding to some aspect of the air cooling and such.
The Beetle’s styling was hardly unique or different. It was very much within the increasingly common streamlined parameters of the day. Nobody thought it was something out of the ordinary stylistically. Advanced and up-to-date, but not radical at all.
Tatra was pissed because Hitler killed the V570 and Type 97 because he didn’t want competition from them for his KdF Wagen. So after the war, Tatra got back at them by suing for the several patent infringements on certain engineering details. Not the body design. You can’t readily patent streamlining.
The aerodynamic styling of the early 30s was everywhere; Tatra got help with its streamliners from Paul Jaray, who had patented aerodynamic design elements back in the mid 1920s.
When folks say that Porsche copied the V570, they mean the general size and certain configuration elements are similar. And Porsche used some engineering details he saw on the Tatra. Porsche and Ledwinka were friends, and both admitted to looking over the other’s shoulder. Everyone does that, if they can.
Look at Porsche’s first small car prototype below, the Zundapp Type 12. It’s from 1932. Tatra first streamlined their boxy V570 in….1933. If you’re going to say one copied the streamlined form from the other, better to say that Tatra copied Porsche! 🙂
It’s a false equivalency, end of story.
I think the Tesla is amazing other than the awkward angle where the A pillar meets the roof. But otherwise it reminds me of a car creator program in the early 80s.
What was the name of the program? it looks interesting.
I wouldn’t go quite there.
One thing that has been It’s kind of notable to me with the feedback I am hearing and reading the last few days is all the Delorean styling comparisons, but I don’t at all see it in the shape (only similarity I see is bare steel bodywork). I hear this observation most from people rather aloof about cars and more in tune to pop-culture, of which BTTF and the cult of personality Elon Musk and his ventures most certainly are part of. My point being the Cybertruck might have huge exposure now, like a car in a popular movie seen the world over, but it will take some time to judge whether or not the image of it will still be cemented in our minds for the same amount of years it took for the for the long produced VW beetle. The Beetle has been out of production for 40 years in the US but people born in the 80s-90s-00s still have a high likelihood of recognizing it.
Beyond that there are a few other factors working against it.
A. It’s a flop. Even with the preorders(I’m half on the mindset of Daniel Stern on this) this could turn out to be much the same as so many enthusiast cars in recent times where there’s a big demand and ALL the interested buyers buy it the first year, once, and sales thereafter fall off a cliff. I don’t feel that’s a far fetched possibility. If this turns out to be the case it’ll disappear from the market in a few years or get updated with styling easier to swallow for what seems to be the majority in the hate it camp.
B. It’s a hit. If it’s a smashing success, the public opinion comes fully around to its shape, the whole industry will follow, just as it has with previous Tesla cars in technology and suddenly this shape won’t be so original anymore. This is the thing with the Beetle too; a significant factor for the beetle being so recognizable is because it was basically a late 30s design made into the 70s and even 90s in some places, but did the Beetle really stand out from the pack that much in the era that spawned it? It wasn’t even the first to bear the shape.
C. It’s not a particularly challenging thing to make a car or truck look like literally nothing else on the road, the challenge is making people want it. Yes there’s the hip Tesla factor that can influence people to come around, but there are numerous Tesla models now that are of a completely different school of design, and two of them, the yet to be released Model Y and Roadster, are still part of the present day design language, not the left field origami Cybertruck language. Unless these upcoming models adopt a Cybertruck like aesthetic with the S/3/Y to get second generations to match, the Cybertruck style will be a niche aesthetic in the lineup.
The Beetle could not be copied. This Cybertruck will surely have plenty of copycats if sucessfull. In other words it will not be a unique shape. Please look at all those deluxe SUVs which are pretty much all sort of Range Rover copies, to see what I mean.
The Beetle is a shameless copy of the 1934 Chrysler Airflow. The idea that it can’t be copied is silly.
It will displace the Beetle as the world’s most recognized shape when 13 year old girls start talking about them among themselves.
Well, my 16 year old daughter asked me what I thought of the Cyber Truck this morning. That’s a first.
That happened with my wife (not a car person). She asked me what I thought of it after seeing it on one of her feeds at the exact same time I was reading Paul’s fine post the other day after the reveal. Talk about a CC Effect!
Nope, not even close. It’s gone viral in the automotive press, but no more so than the Mach E did last week.
I had two Beetles in my early driving experience. The design is classic and lasted some 40+ years. Enough said!
A for that Tonka Toy truck, it looks like something that was cut out the back of a Cheerios box and colored with a $3 can of silver spray paint bought at Family Dollar stores.
As for the 187k pre-orders, Elon loves the lime light, but he stumbles when it comes to execution and follow thru. And he still needs to get his act together on quality control for his present models before he builds Tonka Truck.
By the way, where’s that tractor trailer truck that was introduced approximately a year ago????
At least in the U.S., i’d go with the Jeep Wrangler as being the most universally recognized automotive shape. Just about everyone recognises it as a Jeep.
I don’t have a good sense of how recognised the original Beetle still is amongst the under-30 set that has no recollection from when they were popular.
When I look at the Cybertruck the sharp lines and overall shape is more Pontiac Aztek than VW Beetle. But then both are iconic shapes, just in very different contexts.
and both have optional tents!
To answer Paul’s question: No, not now and not ever. The cyber truck looks like an origami piece done by someone who is no good at origami.
Not even close sorry! The bad 1980’s sci-fi B movie Tonka truck that was designed by a 3 year old will certainly get a lot of attention but most people I have talked to have no idea what it even is and laughed out loud when I showed it to them. You want an iconic shape from America look no further than the Wrangler by Jeep. Everybody knows what one of those is.
Over the course of two days my opinion of it has gone from ridiculous to fascinating. The roofline that first appeared ludicrous and ‘dumbed down’ now looks like a line that others will be kicking themselves for not thinking of first. It’s a really powerful image. The renderings of it in police and military form, as well as the camping option, give a better idea of its presence.
It’s worth noting that the best images are all ‘wilderness’ shots. It’s not an urban vehicle image wise, which may affect its popularity, although the basic form could easily be adapted to be as urban/sleek as anyone’s fantasy. Then again, F-350’s aren’t exactly urban either. And maybe a Mad Max product will expand Tesla’s appeal beyond its current demographic.
I’m still curious about the practicality of the whole package (Jim Klein’s points in Paul’s first post were all well made), but now I’m actively hoping it will work.
Add me to the list of those who suspect that the Cybertruck release is greatly aimed at preventing a bad fourth quarter. Financially Tesla remains one small step ahead of the Devil. Thus Elon’s schtick of “tomorrow will be wonderful- see our upcoming next big thing!” and he has played that card again and again. Having said that, quite often he delivers.
I find the prototype -at best- crude and unfinished, and I love speculating at the size and sound of the thunder storm if GM had shown the EXACT same presentation and prototype.
Had it been shown by GM, or even Ford? The backlash would have been huge, and the truck would have been laughed to death.
People are buying this for the Tesla badge, period.
And ironically, there seems to be no Tesla badge on it.
(Unless I missed it. I’d better go back and look at the pictures ;o)
Interesting thought, but this thing needs to start appearing on roads first. I’d put Jeeps and Hummers above it, for now.
I’m thinking iconic like Edsel.
Wait till they build over 21 million of them, then ask that question.
Too early to tell. The Beetle was presented 80 years ago. Let’s wait till 2099 before we decide 😉
The Beetle became an icon in America in less than 20 years on the road. Check back in 2039.
Yeah, kinda cool, better than Aztek, but it’s a matter of time to Japanese and Germany
Companies come with competition more “terrestrial” and gorgeous than that. To bet, my bid it will be remembered a little bit more than the Isuzu Vehicross.
The cybertruck looks like what a Hummer would be in a futuristic dystopian post-apocalyptic world. All the photos of it in desert scenery make me think this is the vehicle (of choice?) after the effects of climate change takes its toll. Could it be amphibious like the Lotus Esprit seen in The Spy Who Loved Me (1977)?
In Woody Allen’s Sleeper (1973) which is set 200 years in the future, he comes across a Beetle in a cave (I think), and he describes to the rebel people what it was for the time, and it actually starts (!). I don’t think the Cybertruck could fill in that role. Besides, it couldn’t hold a charge that long, could it?
Distinctive, yes. Particularly for all the sharp angles. Iconic? Way way way too early to tell. BTW, would anyone call the VW Type 181/182 Thing (aka the Nazi Footlocker) iconic?
Wow, this article is a stretch.
I never saw this thing before.
I’ll live.
My first impression of Tesla’s Cybertruck was one of shock and head scratching but over the last few days, I have started to think it is cool. It is utterly unlike anything else every put on public roads.The car business is notorious for being all “me too” and copycat, to the point that all modern “trucks” look the same, with big gnarly stuff all over them.
The artist’s renderings show the potential for the design as kind of rolling art space on which to indulge in projects of all sorts.
It’s wonderful to see Musk taking such a risk on his products.
Airflow loves curves. This angular thing is hideous.
The Beetle is ingrained into our culture in a way the Cybertruck hasn’t had a sliver of a chance to become. A teenager who has never seen a Type 1 Beetle on the road will still have seen 1998-2019 Beetles, Beetle-themed art, and Beetles in movies. Perhaps not in the non-Western world, but it’s impossible for anyone old enough to recognize different car models not to have an idea of what a Beetle is. Even if everyone in the world has seen the Cybertruck, nobody has known it for more than a few days, hence it hasn’t “dethroned” the Beetle.
Let’s check back in a decade.
This thing looks like a cast-off prop from Robocop. I respect Musk, but seriously, WTF?
I love the sweater. But who will be the Picasso of the Cybertruck?
Another comment needs fishing out of the trash—this one hit Trash rather than Spam. Please and thanks kindly.
This truck is definitely distinctive. Whether it will become an iconic shape remains to be seen. One test will be whether it is offered in diecast form as a Hot Wheel or Matchbox vehicle.