1910 Stanley Steam Car
The transition to electric power in our automobiles just got a big boost with GM’s recent announcement that their entire fleet of cars and light trucks will be all-electric by 2035.
The last time the industry was in this big of a paradigm shift was just over a century ago when steam, battery, and internal combustion were vying for dominance on the roads of America. The golden age of steam cars is generally considered to be from 1900 to 1915, when steam competed on more or less an equal footing with internal combustion. While they declined quickly after 1915, steam-powered cars actually managed to hang around for another decade and a half before disappearing completely.
1924 Stanley
Stanley, the brand most synonymous with steam-powered cars, was still producing cars until 1924 (surprisingly, at least to me). An example from their final year of production is pictured above.
Jay Leno’s 1925 Doble Steam Car
The last steam car maker of the golden age is generally considered to be Doble, which was producing a handful of steam-powered cars per year up until 1930. Doble had supposedly solved many of the problems that plagued earlier steam cars: For example, their rapid-fire boiler could start generating steam on even the coldest of mornings in just 40 seconds, while supposedly generating 1,000 ft-lb. of torque. But no matter, by then the market had already spoken, and the internal combustion engine (ICE) was the clear winner.
So here we are in 2021, at the precipice of another powertrain transition. Who will be the last hangers-on to the ICE? Will it be a large maker, like Stanley, or will it be a small boutique maker, à la Doble?
My guess for the last mainstream brand to cling to the ICE? Dodge (assuming it survives the Stellantis merger). Dodge has carved a “low-tech” niche for itself with its decade-old platforms, as well as trading on a reputation for being environmentally unfriendly by not having any compact offerings. Heck, Dodge is the only mainstream auto brand I can think of offhand that has never had a hybrid vehicle (OK, there was the 2009 Dodge Durango Hybrid, but it only sold for one year and it used GM’s Dual-Mode hybrid system, which kind of proves my point).
So who do you think will make the last ICE car? Bonus points will be awarded for picking the year of the last ICE-powered car.
I hate to answer a question with a question, but, when will the last IC engine generating plant, massive or micro, be decommissioned?
Probably not for a while. But very few communities use ICE’s to generate power.
Solar or wind are a lot cheaper, even now.
solar and wind are hugely more expensive and you have to add the fact that solar and wind require back up generation – that is power plants – running 24/7 to ensure power supply when wind and solar aren’t producing – a very inefficient system
Germany shows the world not how to do it
their bet on so-called green energy has put their industry at a cost disadvantage and they rely on cheaper imported non-green energy to help to defray that
Public utilities in this country are running scared that consumers are installing their own solar panels and producing ALL of the power that they need and more, hence more and more of them disavowing net metering (which they themselves used to push, ironically) and insisting on sometimes relatively usurious “connection charges”. While I do believe there should be an access charge for when it might be needed, the facts are that a large number of people in the US with and even without electric cars these days generate their own power and more of it than they need. Some of these people are now installing their own battery banks in their garages to timeshift their electricity generation away from their charging needs and avoiding the grid. Everybody tends to assume that every electric car needs a full charge every single day. That is absolutely not the case and in any case most cars are charged at night when the grid is filled with extra capacity already, there’s a reason my electric rates are fully two thirds (yes, a three for one deal!) less at night than during the late afternoon and early evening hours, my utility is hardly alone in this kind of scheme. Even California, the state that everyone seems to think has issues producing enough power, was literally paying other states to take extra energy not too long ago, suggesting massive battery arrays as a possible solution to balance out the loads.
My own city is installing local industrial scale solar farms to help generate enough power to meet future demand, they are not building additional power plants to do so. Their rates are cheap and definitely suggest they are well ahead of the curve and have power to spare. Interestingly my state (CO) is one of the top five oil producing states in the country.
Solar and Wind are far less expensive in national terms than either overthrowing a foreign country for its oil, sending the money offshore for the oil or the costs of raping our own land for it. The oil industry has proven over and over again that it cannot and will not be a good steward of the land (anywhere, not just here). Mostly it appears to be corporate malfeasance but even if all entirely accidental it’s still unacceptable to many.
And finally, gas prices are much closer to their historical low than their high and yet electric vehicles are selling better than they ever have. It’s an interesting paradox and suggests an upcoming tipping point, what’s needed are more vehicles and more choices in format.
Jim, you make many valid points. I sold ice storage systems back in the 1990. Whole idea with the TecoChill system was to make ice at night when electric rates were lower. The system would then generate chilled water for commercial cooling the rest of the time. Very nice when it worked. Great idea on a large scale, but capturing electricity ( at lower rates or solar) at home demands a large, complex, and high maintenance set up. Roof top solar for you home? Not so good with panels that are only 30% efficient. We have a long way to go. Solar is great but clouds and no wind puts a damper on things. What about using the power of tides or OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Concept) to produce electricity in shore areas?
Succinct and dead accurate, Mr K.
You are incorrect on both counts:
https://www.resourcesmag.org/common-resources/what-are-costs-and-values-wind-and-solar-power-how-are-they-changing/
The local Tesla charging station property has a big beautiful skid-mounted engine-drive generator set on site.
I’m not sure how it plays into the charging scheme, but it’s out there standing proud.
Does the charging station derive its electricity from solar and/or wind turbines or some other clean energy source?
Interesting clean energy has to be backed up by a “dirty” petroleum-based engine-driven generator.
Got a pic or link to that?
Even if it were true, a dedicated diesel generator is going to be much more efficient than a car’s ICE.
It is true.
Again I’m not sure how)if the gen set plays into the charging scheme. Maybe it’s strictly standby in case of grid outage?
I’m not trying to or wanting to slam Tesla over it.
Should this question to be narrowed down to include the phrase “available for sale in the US”? I would think that some poorer nations that lack the electrical infrastructure to “fuel” electric cars, and aren’t wealthy enough be able to concern themselves with pollution, will have gasoline-powered cars for many years to come.
If we’re talking about the US, I think the last ICE cars will be on the low end of the price spectrum. KIA, maybe?
Kia isn’t really a bottom-feeder anymore. Sure, you could probably find a $17,500 Soul if you looked hard enough, but I doubt they sell too many of them. On the other hand, they can’t build enough $35-40k Tellurides to keep the showrooms full.
Kia Rio and Hyundai Accent may be final ICE cars. The dealerships have them for $16,000 to $17,000. Pleasant little cars that can meet the needs of most everyone.
I purchased a new (2020) Kia Rio last February. I brag about this surprising automobile more than any I have ever owned. So far, it has far exceeded my expectations. I paid $15,800 out the door. Averages 38 mpg. Rock solid reliable. A much superior vehicle than the one I traded in (’17 Honda Fit). I’d really like to keep this one. I hope ICE cars won’t become outlawed before I die (I[m 73 and in good health).
This is the first time I’ve ever read that a Kia is better than a Honda! Please explain??
Good old Dodge, only brand with a backbone, I’m going to miss them when they’re either consolidated or legislated out of existence.
If in 20 years Ford doesn’t consolidate the name fully into the Mach E and have it exist only as a zombie in the form of a mutant SUV before hand, it’s probable the real Mustang coupe will keep an ICE variant to the bitter end. Same with the (real) Corvette. I expect ICE Trucks won’t go away as soon as some people want.
So a “backbone” is using two-decade-old platforms and producing powertrains with 15mpg city? Good to know.
If people are interested in buying them, that’s all that matters. You can buy other cars yourself, you know?
I fail to see how that is relevant to my comment at all, but thanks for the pointer.
It is fantastic backbone, because they are bucking the trend for expensive platform development and making money on a shoestring. They know that consumers aren’t monolithic, and many simply don’t care about the bleeding edge of the market. I for one am equally disappointed and delighted by every new car I buy. It seems for each new feature, one is significantly cheapened or removed. There’s a lot to like in any old design, and more so for Dodge/Chrysler who have a very good (classic?) platform in the LX.
A backbone means building and selling products people want instead of products that need to be government subsidized in order to exist. Nobody wanted electrics in 1920 and nobody wants them now. Remove the fake crisis and taxpayer money and GM wouldn’t go near them.
My issue with comments like yours is the arrogance. You think that you can speak for entire demographics in saying that nobody wants electrics now. People DO want them but they’re not AFFORDABLE enough to purchase.
I can’t stand comments like this in general. They’re pretty common if you’re of the baby boomer mindset.
I cant stand comments like yours.
Obviously some people want electric cars. Batteries are improving fast. Regenerative braking is a necessity for fuel economy and batteries are required for regenerative braking.
Do i want a tesla car? No. No i do not. But i do want a car with regenerative braking. And i do want tesla’s self driving tech.
I think the correct technology path is to look at diesel electric powertrains in locomotives and do something similar with cars. It doesnt need to be diesel powered. My preference would be for natural gas because I can refuel in my own garage. So basically what i want is an electric motor driven car with an on-board natural gas powered generator and just enough battery to make regenerative braking work. But nobody is going to build what i want.
Rumor is mustang goes electric with 2028 model year.
EVs won’t take over long-haul trucking for a very long time, if ever, so the last ICE car could be a diesel.
I’ve been looking at online V8 STS ads this month. Part of me badly wants the last RWD Cadillac V8, and I may not live long enough for the rare CT6 one to come down to my price range. I’m ambivalent about the rest of the car (I have a Platinum DTS now).
Yes, they will.
Transportation industries do not operate on emotion. They operate in $/tonne/km. As soon as that costs lest than ICE, it will become common.
The last ICE will be on the high end, driven by people who can afford to pay the deliberately onerous road taxes and gasoline taxes designed to move the average consumers away.
Dodge has had plenty of compacts in its history but not sure how “mainstream” a manufacturer with a total of three nameplates, two of them riding on the same platform cam really be considered. They seem to be much more of a specialty brand at this point in time, especially without the minivan. In any case their volume offerings with standard 305 or so hp V6 power do generate a 30mpg highway figure, that’s hardly bad.
Jeep hasn’t had a hybrid until right about now with the new Wrangler 4xE as far as I can recall. Actually, that’s my pick for last ICE standing, Jeep. There’ll likely be a Hellcat equipped Grandest Wagoneer down the road just because they can but the electric Renegades and Compasses will provide the necessary offsets for it.
I’m not convinced Jeep will stick with ICE once practical considerations are solved. It’s not like the sound and smell of gasoline engines is a big part of the off-roading experience.
Why would there ever be a last anything if demand is there?
Nothing kills nostalgia for things that people still deem desirable…
Definitely a Chinese one. China extended the life span for combustion-engines up to 2060. Minimum.
My wife Chinese and I have spent long periods of time in China. I know a fair bit about what’s happening there at the moment.
They are going whole-hog in EVs. They have to because the air in Chinese cities is not fit to breathe most of the time.
But where is the electricity coming from? Coal?
Where I live, hydro.
In China, the majority of new electrical generation is solar or wind.
Coal plants work at 80-90% efficiency, compared to the ~25% of ICEs.
“Gasoline engines will soon be rendered obsolete.”
Thomas A. Edison, 1910
“Prices on electric cars will continue to drop until they’re within reach of the average family.”
‘The Washington Post’, 1915
didn’t Tesla and Toyota issue a joint release about electric cars?
something to the effect that they will be a small % for like
decades
Toyota’s Chief Says Electric Vehicles Are Overhyped
Akio Toyoda says converting entirely to EVs could cost hundreds of billions of dollars and make cars unaffordable for average people
– wsj 12/20
Ah yes, Fox News’ newspaper outlet. If I didn’t offer a purely electric car for sale I’d probably be saying the same thing. Toyota likely wishes it had held on to its Tesla investment rather than divesting themselves of it.
Then again, Toyota offers more “electrified” cars than any other maker currently. Any by a very wide margin, while continuing to posit that hydrogen fueled cars are the future, including the recent release of the second generation Mirai.
There is nothing particularly unaffordable about a current Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf, or Tesla Model 3. All of the are available for less than the average transaction price of vehicles in the US.
and the fact that there is not anywhere near enough electric generating capacity to supply a majority electric car nation
which is why Tesla and Toyota both predict that electric cars will be a relative niche market
To quote from your own provided source, here is what Akio Toyoda apparently said in that article:
“Toyota President Akio Toyoda said Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if all cars were running on electric power. The infrastructure needed to support a fleet consisting entirely of EVs would cost Japan between ¥14 trillion and ¥37 trillion, the equivalent of $135 billion to $358 billion, he said.”
Note that nobody said it would be a complete transition by this summer.
Nobody believes that even if GM and EVERYBODY else went all electric by 2035 that there still wouldn’t be hordes of existing gasoline powered cars on the roads, nobody is outlawing them and even today the average car is what, 12 years old? But let’s just say that WAS in fact the case. So, it looks like if Japan would invest US$9billion to US$24billion per year starting now for the next fifteen years they would have the infrastructure in place to support that. As a government expenditure/investment, that does not seem like a particularly large number. As a public/private partnership it seems doable as well. Keep in mind, if he is correct in saying it would be needed, then it would also by definition be used to its capacity, ergo there exists a potential profit to the investment. Why though does his number contain such a ginormous spread? Usually he speaks with better specifics.
Have a look at Exxon’s share price.
If you think what that quote is correct, go buy some of its stock.
Steam cars vanished because ICE cars became more convenient – easier to live with. Until electric vehicles can dispense with batteries and charging leads, they will not be very easy to live with. If somebody invented a mobile phone that could be re-fueled in a few minutes I would want one.
What’s become inconvenient is having to go to the gas station constantly. 🙂
As with my phone, an EV can recharge by being plugged in overnight. It’s not overly difficult and can be done in the comfort of one’s home. Or with the proper infrastructure setup in as little as thirty minutes if out and about. Seems like they are a but ahead of phones in that regard.
I don’t find it terribly difficult to plug in my laptop and phone to charge.
I don’t find it terribly difficult to plug my car in when I get home.
I have one huge advantage, too: there are ten level two chargers in my parking garage. None of them are metered, so for an EV, it’s free driving.
Seven of said chargers are being used daily.
You don’t have a mobile phone because it takes too long to charge? Mine is fully charged from 5% in less than half an hour.
Finally, it would be rather difficult to have an EV without a battery, so I don’t understand what you are saying.
I’m saying the future is probably hydrogen….
But a hydrogen ICE or fuel cell? Infrastructure to dispense hydrogen is more of a problem than electric charging stations. But, I thank you for bringing this up. I was thinking about it after the GM discussion here.
The latest mobile phones recharge very rapidly. About 15-25 minutes.
Time for you to go buy one.
The fact that you still have not yet ever owned a mobile phone of any kind tells me you dont have a clue about anything in the world right now.
Even power tools are rapid charging battery powered now. Nobody uses corded power tools anymore.
When I build my home, I’m putting a level 2 charger in it. Used electric cars are becoming affordable, my next used car will be one, while I keep one car for trips or when I need to leave town.
Uncle Mellow – Not sure if the charging lead is the main sticking point, or is it the time required to use it.
I’ve actually driven a couple of Nissan Leaf vehicles equipped with a Quick-Charge Port that can provide an Eighty percent charge in 30 minutes.
I still drive an IC Ford car, but can attest that the EV has some inherent creature comforts that supplant my “Old Style” 2017 IC car; such as an Instant heater/defroster (with no warm-up requirement) and heated a steering wheel. It’s nice to wait in the car with the climate control on and not breathe gas fumes too)
It’s interestingthat standardized non-owned quick-change battery packs aren’t getting better consideration.
They could solve almost as many problems as they create.
Those tradeable battery packs were common in the first EV era, used by city delivery trucks, which were then and STILL ARE the best use of EVs.
The trade-outs may return for that niche, but they can’t be practical for ordinary cars in ordinary service stations. The process would take the same kind of equipment and labor as changing the transmission grease or lubing the suspension. Put the car up on some kind of rack, lift in the new pack while dropping the old. The service station would have to keep an inventory of battery packs, taking a lot more room than an underground gas tank, and a lot more flammable. The packs would not be standardized. Nothing in the digital world is standardized. The purpose of standards is to create new incompatibilities.
Quick-change would have to be designed from the start, not as an afterthought.
Quick-change is the norm with industrial trucks – 1000 AH battery swap in 60 seconds. Guy barely has a chance to light up a smoke in the hydrogen cloud of the charging station. lol
Swappable packs solve a non-existent problem for most and create others for more, even if there were a worldwide standard. The last thing I want is some re-educated prior pump-jockey messing with a battery pack in or under an expensive new car for the same reasons I don’t take my regular cars to Jiffy-Lube or similar places. I don’t want anyone touching it, and am perfectly capable of plugging in a charger having now done it repeatedly and seeing how it’s just not a problem in my daily life and or the evenings when I do so in my own garage. The people complaining about it have for the most part never tried it. At one point self-serve gas didn’t exist either, some people are still scared of doing so (and probably should be, far more can and does on occasion go wrong.)
If it were not my car and an industrial truck instead then sure, have at it, it’s no hassle for me if something happens to it.
It’ll come as a kit you’ll have to build yourself. And you might have to buy the gas for it on the black market, or from a chemist or dry cleaner. Or at the airport.
Or the burger joint down the road if you choose the “Clean Diesel” version. 🙂
I wonder if in the waning days of the ICE if Big Oil will be replaced by local micro refineries?
Or maybe something like how now there’s the occasional oddball propane or natural gas pump out in the back corner of a fueling station.
Regulation aside, market gain or loss of each will no doubt be a factor of price pressure.
Have a look at the stock price of any oil company.
That alone will show the future.
Wall Street is a poor predictor of the distant future. Investors tend to look a year ahead, not 20. The reason for low prices today is Covid-19 depression of overall economic activity, especially travel, that use fuels and lubricants. The time will come, but not for a while. I’ll sell Chevron then.
Chevron is a dog. It peaked at $128 in January 2018.
Friday it closed at $85.20.
I sold my oil stocks in 2013.
Black market oil refining, eh? My great grandfather bootlegged during prohibition, could I have found my true calling? 🙂
Globally? Toyota Land Cruiser.
Just when the last ICE vehicle looks like it’s gone, somebody is going to develop a tow-behind engine/generator set. Maybe even coal fired? lol
There used to be commercially built power packs that fit in the same space as an electric truck’s battery, replacing it “smartly” with an engine/generator combination.
I like the idea of an electric car, but they are not currently in my price range.
Most people assume that a new car is in reach of almost everyone.
My budget allows for a roughly $12k car.
Where I live in SC doesn’t offer any really decent public transportation. And there are very few charging stations in the area that I live.
So when these electric cars are in my price range I have other concerns.
Will the used car dealer install the charger at my house? Will a used one even come with the car? Will I have to pay extra for a new one and installation?
And on the other end, if electric becomes so common but not necessarily budget friendly, will I be able to afford the gasoline to keep my current car viable.
Maybe it’s just me, but these are my concerns for electric only cars.
A used Leaf is in your price range.
https://www.edmunds.com/used-nissan-leaf-columbia-sc/
An electrician will install your charger. Even easier, you can just plug into a 220V dryer outlet. If you don’t drive much, a 110V charger will keep you going.
A leaf isnt a good car. He’d be better advised to get a used prius, corolla hybrid, or civic hybrid.
The used EV will come with a charging cord. If it doesn’t, ask the dealer to supply one. It’s an integral part of the car, same as a gasoline cap. Or purchase a used one (likely from a wrecked car) on ebay.
The cord(s) can plug into existing 110 or 220 circuitry/outlets using adapters, you could use an actual dryer plug but it’s not generally recommended since it doesn’t usually include a GFI device. One could be added at the electrical panel however by swapping out the breaker.
You could get a plug that looks and works like a dryer plug but allows for higher amperage and is heavier duty. OR install a dedicated charger, they range from about $300 at the low end (I think) to $500 for the Tesla branded one or more expensive ones for ones with more functions.
EITHER of those three devices can be installed by ANY licensed electrician or even a savvy homeowner that is comfortable around electricity. A city permit is recommended just to be sure in any case. There is nothing whatsoever magical about installing one of these, it involves a circuit breaker in your electrical panel and running wiring to wherever you want the device or outlet to be. Just like running a new circuit for anything else in the house like a dryer or oven. Some electrician’s see $$ when you say you need an EV charger installed and some are honest and charge what they should. New houses here are now required to include wiring inside the wall to a specified location to make it even easier for a homeowner, this will likely become the norm nationwide. In my case it was $660 for the installation in my 50-year old house which included a city permit and inspection and involved adding a 60amp breaker, running 40 feet of conduit with seven bends across my garage as I wanted it in a specific location and not just as close to the panel as possible. If I had wanted that I would have saved a lot of money. That $660 spent will be recouped when I sell the house, no worries about that. If your electrical panel doesn’t have any extra slots there will be an additional expense. In any case get several quotes, we got three, my regular guy who got the business was a third of the highest quote. He finished in under five hours and was hardly rushing things. I can’t imagine paying the priciest guy 3x as much after knowing exactly what is involved, attempted highway robbery. Get and check references too.
There are several EV’s with low mileage available in your price range. Nissan Leaf, Fiat 500EV, Chevy Spark EV, and likely half a dozen others that are available in CA but not in many other states, you’re lucky in that regard. To get a several hundred mile range you will likely need to wait another couple of years but I will bet that the Chevy Bolt will be in your budget within that time with 238 miles of range.
Appreciate the guidance on installing a home charger, but most homes built prior to the 70’s still use fuses and represent a large percentage of the current housing stock. Not sure if the local code would require a complete rebuild of the fuse box to breakers prior to adding an EV charger.
Also, would the home owner’s (or auto) insurance cover damages if the installation is done without a permit.
So upgrade (replace) your panel to have breakers, can you even have a 60amp 220V line with screw in fuses? A hardwired charging device itself has a GFI built in so if there’s an issue it would trip before getting to the breaker/fuse. If it’s a plug being wired then code usually requires a GFI at the breaker. It’s possible that with a fused box there isn’t enough capacity in the box or that you’d need a service upgrade. I’m no electrician. I don’t know about that claim about “most” pre-70’s houses, MANY (most?) have been upgraded for various reasons over the years, I’ve owned multiple homes that were pre-70’s and have shown hundreds more and virtually none had fuses still installed in the main box. Maybe that’s just the areas I’ve lived in in CA and CO.
As with anything else done without a permit, if something happens related to the system in question, I would expect a good insurance investigator to look into that. It’s not worth potentially having a claim denied or risk the safety of home and family to save $25 or whatever it is on a permit for such a low cost item. As I said, the total installed cost with a permit for me was $660 plus the charger itself. You have to wonder about an electrician that would do it without a permit.
Looking up a few videos on the process made it clear that I probably could have handled it myself, the city inspector staff here is very happy to help and explain best practices and basically walk me through it as well in order to get the permit finalized, but I decided my time is worth more than that cost and having to learn to bend conduit and run it across my garage, I have plenty of other projects to keep me busy for a better return. As stated it’s essentially identical to installing a line for an oven or electric dryer, no magic.
Both of those questions though are good ones for your insurance agent.
but most homes built prior to the 70’s still use fuses and represent a large percentage of the current housing stock.
That is far from correct. Breaker boxes became universal for new construction in the 60s (or earlier), and I’ve not seen an old house without an upgraded breaker box in quite along time. These ancient 60A fuse boxes will only support a single 240V appliance. Anyone wanting a dryer in addition to a range, or any other 240 V appliance long upgraded to at least a 100/125A service and breaker box.
As for DIY, if you have a 240V circuit for a dryer, it could be shared with an EV charger; just don’t use both at the same time. If so, the breaker will pop, which is not a big deal.
M
Jim & Paul,
Sorry to disagree with you, but I live in the Deep South and many homes were built with fuses during the building boom of the ’60s and ’70s. My house is an example (electric turn date of 1968). Building codes varied significantly from region to region back then.
Also, even though it had a gas tap for the dryer, someone had “double lugged” the fuse box for an electric dryer which I had disconnected when I purchased the house in the early ’90s. Eventually, I had the box rebuilt with breakers in 2008 as part of a general home improvement spree. Many in my neighborhood still have the original fuses.
That’s incorrect.
There’s lots of houses with edison base fuse panels. I still own two. And one with 2-wire knob and tube wiring. You can still buy 2wire receptacles at the hardware store.
Alright, I tried to be helpful with what I thought to be a couple of serious questions about EV chargers but never mind, I’ve learned my lesson. Around here fuseboxes are not common in older homes, the most recent house I purchased was built in 1958 and had breakers (the original panel which I upgraded/replaced to a more modern, safer design), most other homes have been upgraded just like you now divulge you did yourself in the deep south, another fact missing originally. Please contact an electrician for the proper advice in your locality regarding chargers.
The type of overload protection, be it breaker, fuse or high-zinc-content US penny, isn’t the issue. Most of heavy industry is still on fuse protection, and there’s no rush for any changeover.
It’s about the ampere capacity of the service, and as importantly capacity of the local distribution network.
Consider some older home that was built in the electric heat era, and has since changed to gas heat. Despite still being fused, the installation is probably going to have plenty of capacity for a fast charger.
Cottage in the woods on the far end of the network? Probably going to be 48 hour charge time.
Tesla Model FU.
Looking at the current market, pickup trucks have arrived very late to the electrification game (outside of GM’s short lived hybrid pickup), and seem to appeal to the climate denying demographic. Therefore, I expect that segment hold onto ICE propulsion until the bitter end.
What an excellent question. It’s lead me down the rabbit hole of America’s electrification history for context. As for make and model I just don’t know. I believe gas hybrids big and small will be made until the charging infrastructure covers 90-95% of the lower 48 US states.
Here’s another question: How will poor people get out of gas and into electric cars?
How did poor people climb off horses and into a car a hundred years ago? They bought used ones.
Electric cars depreciate like all other cars and become cheap enough to buy, in many cases this is already so and as more get sold, more will become available on the used market. Electric power at home makes an EV cheaper and more predictable cost-wise to fuel than with gasoline, and maintenance costs are lower.
Should power not be available at home (Apartment for instance), take a look at street parking charging solutions that companies such as Ubitricity are installing in countries such as the UK. Ubitricity was just bought by Shell who has also been a pioneer in Europe in installing fast-chargers at their gas stations.
For an ultra-cheap EV the often referenced bugaboo is likely the battery, however they rarely if ever fail from one day to the next, but rather gradually decline measurably in capacity. Certainly more predictably than a tranny in a cheap car. Most electric cars come with warranties that are far better than what’s covered in a normal car. 8yrs/100k miles or 8/120 is very common for batteries and drive units with some even at 8/150.
My guess is that you will see the last ICEs at four extremes. The cheapest and smallest end, for the guy living way out of town, at the end of a long, unpaved rural driveway, without much money. The big pickup truck end of things, for the late adopters of EVs who want to roll hydrocarbons to the bitter end. The nostalgic muscle car side of things (Corvette, Challenger, Mustang, Camaro) who want the noise and the smells and all the accoutrements of the ICE. Lastly, the ICE exotics, for the Porsche/Ferrari/Lambo drivers who also want the traditional architecture, and are willing to pay up for it. The last three are mostly retro because they want to be, not because they need to be. They will age out over time. Expect also an EV with ICE style sounds and controls for these retro people. I can envision an EV 911 that looks like an ICE flat six is installed when you open the rear deck lid. And sounds like a flat six, going down the road. An EV “muscle car” of sorts with retro air cleaner covers and some sort of vestigial valve covers arrayed in a “V”, and sounds like a V-8 at speed. Hokey as it all sounds…
ICEs to me are like hard wired phones. Hard wired phones have a robustness to the architecture, but are rather impractical for most people, who choose to be out and about and want their phone with them when they are. As the EV infrastructure builds out, and the convenience and economy of simply plugging in your car at night, as you do your phone, holds sway, the ICE will simply be a rare answer to the “what car” question. People will get from here to there via the path of least resistance (sic) and that wil be the EV for most.
That first of the four, of the last buyers of the ICE, fits the profile of the few who still use a hardwired phone as their primary telephone today. So perhaps a cheap, small “fleet” car will be it. The first hybrid Prius was fashioned from the platform of the cheap ICE Echo. Perhaps something similar to the old Echo will be the last ICE vehicle in production.
Expect also an EV with ICE style sounds and controls for these retro people. I can envision an EV 911 that looks like an ICE flat six is installed when you open the rear deck lid. And sounds like a flat six, going down the road. An EV “muscle car” of sorts with retro air cleaner covers and some sort of vestigial valve covers arrayed in a “V”, and sounds like a V-8 at speed. Hokey as it all sounds…
It sounds more patronizing than hokey.
And my oh my, the horrors, horrors I tell you! of filling up at the pump! What an inconvenience! Guess the in & out burger better watch out, once that 5 minute gas pump inconvenience isn’t preoccupying peoples motoring stresses they’ll focus their angst on finding alternatives to voluntarily waiting in the drive through lines for a half hour!
I don’t see the ICE going away. It’s just too convenient. Everything else is a compromise in comparison. I live in a rural location where power outages can last for days and on extremely rare occasions, over a week. No worries about charging in those situations, and in those situations I run a power inverter off of the car to run the refrigerator and the water pump. On a different subject, if an electric car is so great, how come none of them will make toast? If I’m going to buy a big bucks, big deal Tesla, I want it to make toast. Lose that big computer screen on the dash and install a toaster!
If there is a power outage in your rural area, you can’t pump gas anyway.
The gas stations have emergency generators.
A couple of years ago we had a major multi-day power outage in our region. I went looking for some fuel for our backup generator. Of all the places I checked, not a single gas station/convenience store equipped with their own generating station, had the fuel pumps connected to the emergency power set-up.
Their generating systems were designed to power the emergency lighting systems, cash register computers, and the refrigeration systems to keep their food supplies cold. That’s where their profit lay, not in selling fuel. They are more concerned about losses from spoilage, or not making sales if the cash registers don’t work.
What probably amazed me the most was that the stores without a generator didn’t allow the employees to make cash sales, because they were unable to input the sale into the computer systems. They weren’t allowed to write the sales manually, with pen & paper!
The discovery of no gasoline availability, came as a total surprise. I had made a mental note of the fuel supply locations with generators out back, as we often get power outages during major winter storms. [Like yesterday – 1 Feb 21!]
As of last year, we now have a dual fuel [gasoline and propane] generator for the house. At most supply locations, getting a 20# propane tank filled, requires no electricity. Set the tank on a mechanical scale, fill to the 20# mark on the scale, done. And unlike gasoline, the propane can sit unused for decades, and it’s still OK to use.
Wouldn’t it be ironic if the last ICE powered automobile is built by the descendent (Mercedes Benz?) of the first ICE automobile manufacturer? It would be full circle.
Question to the EV experts: Do all the EV auto manufacturers use a standard plug, receptacle and recharging unit configuration? Can a Chevy Bolt or Nissan Leaf use a Tesla recharging station? If EVs are going to replace ICE, the recharging stations would have to be standarized and each car is going to have a standard recharging recepticle and plug.
Another thing: I used to live in an apartment that didn’t have carports or garage. If a apartment dweller had an EV, would they have to store their cars in a EV-charging “livery stable” similar to where horses were kept for people who didn’t have a barn?
Allow me to complicate things by mentioning USTs (underground storage tanks). They represent a costly environmental liability for the owners and do require upkeep. Less ICEs on the road affect the economics of maintaining a network of USTs for dispensing fuel. As battery technology advances and electric refueling convenience improves, those changes will erode the current refueling advantage enjoyed by ICEs. Such changes can’t help but affect future transportation choices.
Looks like Biden will need to set aside SuperFund money for abandoned USTs.
The Mom & Pop stations will drop out first because they are based on the customers buying cokes or smokes which have a significantly higher margin than the fossil fuel coming out of the pump. They won’t have the resources to remove the tanks when costs exceed revenue.
In my state [Maryland], any location that stops selling gasoline, kerosene, or diesel, MUST have the underground tanks REMOVED after 6 months of non-use. The only exception to the rule is if the fiberglass fuel tanks were set in underground vaults that allow visual inspections of the outside surfaces of the tanks. Most [if not all] underground tanks in Maryland installed within the last 20 years [approximate date], are in visible vault situations.
The last internal combustion car will be in my driveway for as long as I can drive.
I’m not knocking EVs; my hat is off to Elon for taking the lead with a viable vehicle while GM, Ford, PSA-FCA (sorry, I prefer Sildenafil) , Nissan-Renault-Mitsi, etc, etc, etc, scramble to catch up.
However, I’m a backend baby boomer brought up on busted radiator hoses and leaking oil seals on cars a little as 5 yrs old. Its in my blood!!
The biggest hurtle will be the adoption of EV pickups in the NA market. This is an entranced bunch with a mind set worse than me. There will be a stampede at the GMC dealership when the last ICE pickup is sold in Fargo, ND.
As a side note: The number of nuclear power plants in the US if falling. They cannot compete with fracked natural gas supplies and are falling off the radar scope one or two per year. If in doubt, consider Duane Arnold; Indian Point 2 (supported NYC); Pilgrim (near Boston); Oyster Creek; etc.
No matter if you are pro or oppose “nukes”, demand will grow when everyone is plugging in their EVs each nite before going to bed or chasing down vaccination sites. Not sure every home will have solar panels, or if panels can backfill the power demand for EVs.
Cogeneration plants are very hard to beat. But anything can happen. If tomorrow there’s a breakthrough in nuclear fusion then everyone will forget about wind power.
No question, the last ICE automobile will be a Morgan!
GM bet heavily on the Corvair, producing sedans, convertibles, trucks, and vans, even a station wagon. Then in the late 70’s, they bet heavily on the diesel V-8, offering those in every line and Chevy and GMC trucks. They can say they’re going all electric, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.
If GM lets their ICE platforms languish, they have.
This is a snapshot of electric generation in the state of NY at 1:100 EDT today. Note the percentage of renewables other than hydro. The nuclear portion will be gone within a few years. The dual fuel plants are burning #6 heavy fuel oil, as the natural gas supply is artificially constrained and at peak times is cut off from the power stations to allow enough for residential heating purposes. Peaker plants are set up to burn jet fuel in their turbines. So somehow wind and solar will be expected to within 20 years to supplant all of the nuclear and fossil fuel generation, power a vast network of charger stations and supplant natural gas for home heating purposes (NY is in the process of banning new gas hookups). Never going to happen. I drive a 9 yo Prius that I will keep until it is it is unsafe to drive, which if FAR more ecologically sound than buying a new EV.
My only issue with your comment is that it implies that doing nothing is a valid option. It isn’t. And I am not calling you out specifically, as so many others seem to be in the same mindset.
Just because it is not totally viable today does not mean that we cannot make it totally viable tomorrow.
Please keep in mind that a little over a 100 years ago, we had no electric plants. No infrastructure to supply electricity to anyone. So we should have, by the logic of your argument, never made the effort to install electricity, as we had other power sources available, plus candles and oil lamps.
There are those who seem to think that doing nothing, not making forward progress, is the only choice. It isn’t. And forward progress will not be easy, or cheap, or painless, or without mistakes. But the option of doing nothing is even worse. While easy, it is expensive, will cause pain that could have been avoided, and will be a mistake in the long run. That’s how it works – progress comes at a price, but not paying for it is not a viable choice.
I don’t quite see the end of ICE in the next 15 years. The biggest reason is outlying areas. In Canada we have vast tracts of land and Forrest being worked where ICE will have to be around for some time to come. Agriculture takes huge amounts of power in their tractors and combines which batteries in the foreseeable future will not be an option. Ad to this the remoteness of the lands and the frequency the lands need to be managed, and ICE will be hard to replace. Mining and forestry is also in the same situation. Then we have Australia with similar needs, albeit not the ginormous temperature swings and I just don’t see the end that quickly.
I predict the last ICE car (not counting pickups or motorcycles) will also be the last manual transmission car, or possibly paddle shifted dual clutch sans hydraulics.
So that will be something retro, small, and enthusiast oriented.
Lotus elise
Mazda miata
Toyota 86/ subaru brz
Something from BMW
Maybe an acura integra if honda ever brings it back
Maybe a Genesis model by Hyundai
Maybe something from Alfa Romeo.
Last I looked, the US was still located amongst the rest of the world, you know!
The last ICE car will be made in a third-world country, probably in Africa, where some sort of fossil fuel is locally available (gas, oil, shaleoil, ethanol perhaps): it might even be something that’s new right now, still being made there long obsolete (but very, very cheap). Using the example of the Peugeot 504, released in ’68 and last built in Nigeria in ’06, that could be in 2058…
And in places like outback Australia and similar, there’ll eventually be enough in the way of electric stations to get the vast majority of tourists around, but there’ll still be a few new ICE machines necessary for the remote residents, barring a significant shift in range technology (by which I mean to 1,000+ miles, to allow for extreme heavy-duty consumption through, say, 500 4wd miles of sand or mud).
justy baum,
Damn! you beat me to it!
I 100% agree the last ICE will be made in the 3rd world. I remember all too well visiting the west coast of Africa in the late 1990s where everyone was using cell phones, because once you left the cities, the national electric power grid was almost non-existent. Same with the phone company communication lines.
Extreme poverty meant thieves were constantly creating local power outages so they could steal the copper wires from the part of the grid that was now dead. They would take a beat-up old truck, tie a dead power line to the frame, and simply pull down a Kilometer of wire at a time.
Locals depended on small solar chargers at little mom & pop stores to keep cell phones charged. And I remember seeing armed guards stationed 24/7 at the cell towers. Until problems like these are a distant memory, there will still be a serious need for ICE vehicles [especially small trucks] in the 3rd world.
The last ICE car produced will either be the cheapest car on the market or the most expensive one. There is no middle ground that allows the tech to change so dramatically without leaving only the outliers as the holdouts. So, expect the last one to either be a likely imported “emerging market” hatchback or similar on the cheap end, or a high priced “supercar” from one of the boutique manufacturers, probably with an eye on selling to the tycoons and rich folks who will be able to afford petroleum products to fuel it. And maybe, just maybe, those will both market at the same time, with people really never taking note until they have been pulled from production.
The last carbureted engine produced? The 1994 Isuzu pickup, and it was never advertised or promoted for having the last of the old tech. Nor should it have been, as it was not really a selling point, other than keeping it cheap. The opposite will be true should you consider a supercar, as that will be the main selling point, telling potential buyers that this is their last chance to own something that makes the noises it does as it propels you forward. And people will buy it more as an investment for the rarity and collectability than to actually buy it to drive it.
Who’s in a hurry to be at the mercy of a monopolistic source of transportation fuel?
Hello?
Nobody?
Lol
Maybe ICEs fueled various ways, and electric sourced various ways, could coexist in healthy competition?
While giant utilities may enjoy economy of scale, maybe “micro” off-grid power generators with leaner more efficient management and production styles could compete, once there are roving mobs of potential customers?